St Johnstone are in their best run of league form although this isn’t saying a lot but two wins and a draw in the last four matches is improvement.
The last three were with new manager (old face) Craig Levein in charge.
Most telling perhaps was the last fixture a 0-1 loss away at Tynecastle.
Whilst the home side had 17 shots only four were on target for a total xG of 1.44. The Perth side generated 10 efforts of their own with xG of 0.81. Probably a lot closer than the Hearts fans might have expected.
Unsurprisingly given where we are in the season there was no great changes to personnel. However, Levein, again unsurprisingly, went to a back three and retained two forwards.
Compared to home matches against Ross County and Motherwell, the Saints dropped a little deeper as the Sofascore average positions illustrates:
There is not a lot of width to their play and therefore despite wing woes of late I’d expect Celtic to continue in a 4-3-3 shape and try and overload those wide areas and draw the flank centre backs out.
That mini run has seen them off the bottom of the league with Livingston a point behind.
Saint’s perennial issue has always been a lack of pace in the side although they have some energy now with Phillips, Costelloe and Smith.
And a chronic lack of goal threat. Eight is the lowest goals tally in the league from a xG of 10.23. Their xG difference (between xG for and against) is the worst in the league at -0.85.
They average only 2.31 shots on target (Celtic 8.07); 6.23 shots in the box (Celtic 13.43); and only work the opposition ‘keeper 1.62 times per 90m. All the above are second worst in the league. At 0.08 xG per shot they have the joint worst average chance quality per shot. Also, one big chance created per match is a league low (Celtic 4.43).
Defensively they are a little better but are second only to Aberdeen in averaging 1.98 post shot xG per game against. At 3.54 their very good keeper Mitov makes the 3rd most saves (Hart 1.64). No team gives up more than 3.31 big chances per game.
St Johnstone are clearly not a good team but at home, new manager and with an emphasis on what will become a five-man defence, the dangers are obvious.
With Celtic struggling for wing creativity and penetration allied to a lack of a threatening midfield partner for O’Riley, the threat of a stodgy 0-0 remains.
It may not be pretty but finding a way through these December slogs is what wins the titles.
They have the template. Luckily for them it fits right in with Levein’s philosophy. Play for 0-0 and crowd your 18 yard box. Rodgers teams have struggled against this (even going back to 2017). A narrow 1-0 victory is not a bad outcome here, though it will be awful to watch. Winter break is the time to rejig how we play, hopefully with some new faces. Because currently we ain’t playing a way that opens these teams up.