The Scottish League Cup Final is one the “free to air” data providers barely cover.
So, here are the team numbers behind Celtic’s triumph on Sunday against The Rangers.
Passing & Possession
Celtic dominated possession more in the first half and it was impactful. At half time the possession was stacked 63%/37% in Celtic’s favour and this seemed to have a material impact.
Rookie Micky Beale elected to start with midfielders John Lundstram and Malik Tillman in a match up to Celtic’s three with Glenn Kamara. Unfortunately for the talkative one, neither were near 100% fit and Celtic’s dominant possession further tired less than full functioning limbs.
Celtic’s first goal was aided by failure to track Celtic midfield runners in the 44th minute. Like Celtic in Europe, the Ibrox club are not used to having only 37% of the ball and pressing for the majority of time. It’s tiring!
That may have impacted the passage that led to Celtic’s opener.
24% of Celtic’s passes were “pack” passes that took at least one opponent out the game. This is a very high number and reflects the inability of their front three to press the Celtic back line effectively. Carl Starfelt alone completed 24 pack passes.
The overall passing effectiveness reflects The Rangers propensity to hit long diagonals onto Greg Taylor as opposed to Celtic’s usual passing approach.
Goal Threat
Single game xG is always problematic and important context is needed around both teams’ numbers.
Firstly, the Blues.
In the 13th minute John Lundstram’s shot was blocked by Cameron Carter-Vickers but the cut back from Malik Tillman had come from a ball that was clearly out of play.
Similarly, in the 79th minute, a Carl Starfelt miscalculation allowed an Antonio Colak shot to be blocked again by Cameron Carter-Vickers. However, Colak had controlled the ball with his arm which surely would have contravened Law 12 – “It is an offence if a player:
scores in the opponents’ goal:
- directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper
- immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, even if accidental”
But because VAR was not needed both “attempts” stand to artificially boost the xG numbers.
For Celtic, both goals were taps ins with no goalkeeper or defender present (back post Barisic – lol) and inside the six-yard box – huge xG for both. And then a flurry of Celtic chances occurred very late in the game on the break against a tired and overcommitted defence.
Overall, though, Celtic had dominance in good quality chance creation with only Fashion Sakala’s shot being a “big” chance and even then, he had a very narrow angle to aim at.
Creating
Alfredo Morelos’s goal was their other “big” chance as this was inside the six-yard box and very close to goal.
Celtic had the edge in pack passing efficiency as well as 28-22 possessions within the box.
Defending
The Rangers collectively def3ended appallingly for both Celtic goals with Connor Goldson in particular exacerbating a lack of midfield tracking and covering.
For Celtic, Taylor and Starfelt in particular had really poor moments in the second half, as indeed did Callum McGregor, giving up the ball in dangerous areas especially in that wobbly period from 60 to 80 minutes.
Overall, Joe Hart did not have to make a save whilst Allan McGregor made four.
Celtic made more clearances but much of that is down to game state – one team chasing, the other defending a 2-0 lead. Celtic also made a (player led) decision to go more direct second half as the pitch cut up and passing out from the back became trickier.
Crime Count
There were plenty of fouls as expected and a flurry of cards near the end as the trailing side looked like losing their discipline.
Overall, Nick Walsh and team should be commended for a decent display and by Scottish standards, probably near exceptional. There were no VAR controversy’s and thankfully no opportunities for questionable calls.
It was a less than perfect display from Celtic but nevertheless a well deserved win.
Damian says
I enjoyed reading this and really enjoyed listening to the celebratory Huddle Breakdown earlier this afternoon. I really enjoyed watching the game. My fat less informed reading was that while Celtic were clearly the better side and deserved to win, Rangers contributed to the match quite well and that there didn’t seem an inordinate gulf between the two teams. I thought that the first half hour was quite open: Celtic the better of the two but not quite ‘dominant’ in all connotations of that word. There was a 20 minute spell in the second half, beginning a few minutes before the Rangers goal, where Rangers played well – including a ten minute spell where Celtic seemed to be unable to get on top of the game at all and where I thought it looked likely that Rangers would equalise. I couldn’t quite follow the HB verdict on this spell (though it was certainly discussed). Did the more dynamic (and uninjured) Rangers midfield changes make them more of a threat? Did O’Reily’s introduction initially hamper Celtic’s momentum? Was switching from Morelos to Colak so soon after the former had scored a mistake?
Clearly, I haven’t rewatched the whole game (and wouldn’t know what to do with my rewatch from an analytical point of view if I did). Anyone have a concise theory on that portion of the match? Am I not remembering it properly?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Damian – Celtic were a bit of a self inflicted mess for about 20m as you say. Their subs provided a different problem – Raskin passed a few balls forward more accurately and Cantwell occupied the 10 spaces. But mainly, Celtic were careless in possession and a bit panicked. Iwata (sat in) and Oh (allowed Celtic to go long and negate the heavy pitch) calmed things down sufficiently.
Damian says
Thanks. Celtic certainly got on top of it / Rangers punched themselves out, and the final ten minutes (85-95) were pretty plain sailing and Celtic really ought to have taken one of the three beak-away chances they created.
I agree that a lot of that looked self-inflicted, but I always reckon that when there is a pattern of unforced errors, there’s usually something the opposition is doing to encourage them. I suppose that’s a tough one to drill down on – and it might just be wrong.
Anyway, onto the next. Most important bit of analytical learning ahead of the weekend: Celtic must not wear a change kit which, at full speed, is indistinguishable from the opponent’s home kit!
Not having a referee who – while Celtic-supporting – was once a St Mirren youth player, would also help!
Damian says
PS. That last bit was lighthearted joshing. And no more.
Neil says
My uneducated view was that when football was being played Celtic were by far the better team (first 60 mins). However when the game turned into kick and rush and the ball was in the air more than on the floor then the game evened up. A lesson for Celtic in the future is to avoid being dragged down to their level.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I thought Celtic responded to the heavy pitch, the pressure building and then Oh being introduced to change their approach. Playing out wasn;t working as they set up higher with Cantwell on and the players adapted. Was my take.
Iain in Alberta says
After Celtic scored the second Mooy and Hatate tired visibly, and we started hoofing the ball up the park (CCV and Calmac). What also contributed to the agers slight revival was the renewal of their midfield 3, just after 60 minutes. Rasman and Jack both look better to me than Kamara and Lundstrum. Iwata and Oh came on at minute 75 and Iwata played with Calmac as a ” double pivot”. When Iwata was waiting to come on he held two fingers up to AP to confirm what was required. I don’t remember anything too dangerous at Celtics’ goal after Iwata came on. Prior to Kent hitting the post incident Calmac had dove into a tackle near the half way line which he missed, I think Calmac had tired also. Hacksaw made a huge difference with his speed and strength to alleviate the pressure also after 83 minutes. That is how I saw it happening. As an aside Morelos pushes Mooy prior to scoring. Where was VAR??
wilkinssscreamer says
if only kent had scored instead of hitting the post.
still Scotland’s most successful club.
Damian says
A good guide to cracking a joke:
Have it be funny.
Iain in Alberta says
I thought it was funny! I laughed.
Thanks for all the data Alan. As always keep up the great work. Wonderful Celtic site.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
If only David Murray hadn’t cheated Scottish football and Her Majesty for so many years, you’d be able to add to that “most successful” trophy haul.
Ah, well, ifs buts and maybes.