By James Dailey
The pandemic shutdown prevented supporters from having the opportunity to witness the next chapter in the season-long tactical chess match between Neil Lennon and Steven Gerrard.
I recently analyzed The Rangers under Gerrard in this recent piece, while this analysis is focused upon this season’s derbies. As a refresher, this data shows how Celtic’s attack from open play became more balanced with the shift in formation:
The prior piece had broken down how Gerrard’s side had limited Celtic’s attack over the two seasons, while this data reflects just this season’s three games:
Celtic’s total xG from open play for the three derbies was 2.77, or an average of only 0.92 per game. However, the famed Johnny Hayes goal at Ibrox accumulated a total of 1.02 xG on his two shots, which means the ex-Hayes xG for the three games was 1.72, for just a 0.57 average.
Derby Trilogy
Now let us review some broad stats for each of the three derbies, which I believe uncovers a clear arc on how each manager approached them tactically.
Round 1:
Lennon appears to have ambushed Gerrard in the first derby, as I am sure we all remember Edouard punting the opening kickoff rugby-style. Celtic’s tactic was to play “hot potato” and largely bypass the midfield by going long and surrendering possession.
The Rangers pressed aggressively, and Celtic was content to play over rather than through the press. The result was a choppy game and a modest xG advantage of 2.01 vs 1.23 in Celtic’s favor.
Round 2:
Lennon seemed to attempt a replay of the first derby, as the absence of Edouard from the starting lineup and Morgan starting as a nominal “striker” may have convinced him to play more on the counter. It appears Gerrard was prepared and adjusted, as Rangers were more direct in their attack and less possession centric. They maintained an aggressive press, but a more direct approach was reflected in the significant decline in average passes per possession and total passes. The result was Rangers controlling the game and outperforming in non-penalty xG 0.60 to 1.89, despite the Forster-inspired 1-0 Celtic victory.
Round 3:
Lennon appears to have flipped the script heading into the year end derby, as Celtic dominated possession, pressed more aggressively, and played more on the front foot. A return to fitness by Edouard and playing in front of our support likely spurred Lennon to revert towards his natural tendencies.
However, Celtic’s ability to solve Gerrard’s system remained relatively impotent, as the result was a near draw in non-penalty xG- 1.01 to 1.02.
Conclusion
Lennon’s surprise ambush at Ibrox was a success both from a performance and a results perspective, so he clearly won the first round.
Despite losing the Cup Final to Fraser Forster, I believe Gerrard won the tactical battle in the subsequent two derbies.
Would the switch to 3-5-2 have been Lennon’s trump card in the remaining two matches?
While Gerrard and his team were likely preparing for the challenge, I believe the key element may have been the new formations impact on Celtic’s best two players – the topic of my next piece.