The Champions League money is such that smaller leagues can get distorted. Multiple year winners are common throughout the Champions route to the group stages. Therefore, for Celtic, the list of potential opponents becomes familiar. Last season Celtic competed against Astana for the second year in a row. And this year for the second competition running, Norwegian champions Rosenborg bar the way.
Last season they struggled past Dundalk from Ireland in extra time to face Celtic. This may put their last round struggle against Valur (3-2 with a late, late penalty) into some perspective. After losing to Celtic 1-0 on aggregate last season, Rosenborg went on to defeat Ajax Amsterdam 4-2 before finishing 3rd in their Europe League Group. They played Celtic’s conquerors Zenit Saint Petersburg, drawing 1-1 at home and losing 1-3 away. In a Group containing Real Sociedad they won 1 match versus Vardar.
At home in Norway, they won the Eliteserien again for the 3rd time in a row. Like Celtic’s SPFL season, the Norwegians won 60% of their matches (18) and 67% of available points to triumph by 7 points from Molde. This season they sit 2nd in the league 2 points shy of Brann. 16 matches into the domestic campaign they have won 62% of league games and 68% of available points. A very slight improvement on their championship winning campaign in 2017.
Since the defeat to Celtic last season the following players involved in those ties have left the club:
- Midtsjo (Midfield) to AZ Alkmaar
- Rashani (Forward) to Odd
- Bjordal (Defender) Free
- Skjelvik (Defender) to LA Galaxy
- Jevtovic (Forward) loan return
Skjelvik was the defensive stand out last season blocking 7 Celtic shots over the two ties. Midtsjo was a hard-working box to box type player who created their best chance for De Lanlay at Celtic Park. He created 2 chances over the tie. Jevtovic was the right sided attacking threat managing 3 shots at goal.
Of their new acquisitions, Soderlund is the stand out top scoring on 9 goals this season. This means they will have a more obvious foil for Bendtner. Last season the three midfielders (the creative Dane Jensen and defensive midfielder Konradsen plus the aforementioned Midtsjo) often struggled to support Bendtner. Soderlund plays a more advanced role and at 31 and over 6 feet is both experienced and physical.
Otherwise the Rosenborg team will be familiar with the same goalkeeper (Hansen) and full backs (Hedenstad and Meling). Reginiussen is a very experienced and capable central defender who went off injured in the first leg last at Celtic Park. He is also a goal threat with 28 goals in 285 appearances and 3 for his country. Jensen and Konradsen will patrol midfield again. On the flanks Helland replaces Jevtovic as he did in both legs. It looks as if the left winger De Lanlay has been the one to make room for Soderlund.
Overall Rosenborg should present a very similar challenge to last season. With Soderlund supporting Bendtner, if they are more open it will probably suit Celtic. Last season’s tie was characterised by a very low and deep Rosenborg block with Bendtner happy to be isolated. He never pressed nor ventured outside the width of the penalty areas. Celtic had 81% possession at home yet were out done 3-5 on shots on target and the xG for the teams was a close 1.556 to 1.332. De Lanlay had the one Big Chance of the game shooting over the bar from about 8 yards out. Although Celtic had 22 possessions in the box to 11, the lack of a central striker (Rogic played as a “false 9”) and the abundance of passers and lack of space for runners made it a fruitless evening. Brown completed 147 passes. In this scenario that isn’t a “good thing”.
Celtic will hope the Norwegians open up a bit more like they did in the second half in Trondheim. With the tie 0-0 they started to press high and launch long passes at Bendtner from the full back positions. Simunovic and Bitton coped well and only 3 long range shots emerged. The danger of this approach is that Celtic are likely to have Hendry and Ajer defending against the very experienced Bendtner and Soderlund. Ajer had a particularly composed European debut against Rosenborg last season and we have seen his development since.
Once Griffiths came on after 58 minutes at the Lerkendal, Celtic had more space to play with and the running and movement of Griffiths, Sinclair and Forrest became more influential. From then all 3 forwards created a chance and both Forrest and Griffiths had 3 efforts at goal including the tie winner from Forrest on 69 minutes when Sinclair finally had space in the “10” position. The xG of the second leg was 1.634 – 0.417 for Celtic. Celtic had 6-2 shots on target and 7-2 in the box. Bendtner had 2 efforts at goal over 180 minutes (xG 0.224) – Griffiths managed 3 in 32 minutes (xG 0.353). Celtic may have preferred to play away first this time.
The dilemma for Rosenborg is, go deep and narrow but this time with Edouard and Dembele Celtic can vary the angle and direction of attacks unlike last season. Or open up and get midfielders forward quickly to support the large target men, but then be open to what is a much fitter and faster Celtic side than last season?
It seems as if Rosenborg will carry more aerial threat and may play conservatively for corners and free kicks as per many sides in the World Cup. In which case Celtic’s centre back woes are a concern. But Celtic are undoubtedly sharp and playing with real speed and menace. It was noticeable against Alashkert Celtic are running with the ball at speed more often. Last season Celtic averaged 9 successful dribbles (running with the ball and taking out at least 1 opponent) per match. Against the Armenians, Celtic completed 31 over the tie. Celtic will run at Rosenborg from all angles unlike last season when Brown, Ntcham and Armstrong tried to pass them to death.
As we saw with the Simunovic red card, these ties can turn on a moment. Celtic must hope they have more the players who can generate those big moments at the right end of the park.
I just hope that everything goes to plan and we qualify to the latter stages of the competition. I am fed up when we get so far and we meet Barcelona and get gubbed and don’t go any further and we are out of European football till next year its back to square one again….so frustrating.