This week saw Celtic eventually overcome a stubborn Kilmarnock side whilst The Rangers attempted to maintain the gap the next day at Dundee United.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
08/01/23 Dundee United vs The Rangers
Incident 1
| Referee | Steven McLean |
| Game Minute | 27th |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | Ball hits Goldson in the box |
| Outcome | No decision |
| Evidence | (6) Dundee United 0-2 Rangers | The Blues Secure Win After Two Quick-Fire Goals! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:00 |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Conor Goldson’s volleyball odyssey through Scottish football continues but this time he has been spiked!
In terms of impact on the expected points picture, The Rangers are estimated to have benefitted by 0.47 xPts given the probability of Dundee United scoring the penalty is 79%.
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 1.55 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 5.67 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points after 21 matches.
Again, the key here is not the element of subjectivity in the individual decision (no surprises that i agree with YW this week) but the cumulative effect of the apparent decision bias this season (and last).
Will the YW take questions? What does he/she think of the fan declaration in England v Scotland (i.e. a referee declares his allegiances)? For the incorrect decisions (in his opinion) are here any that are truly baffling? Is an increased level of scrutiny of referee’s a good thing? Differences between football and rugby referee’s (i.e microphone and cameras)?
As always – love the analysis!
Paul – thanks
I don’t want to draw the YW into that – he deals with each incident on its own merits. It is my job to cast an eye over the long term trends etc. I try my best to not “lead the witness” when interacting with him and i do seek additional clarification in the background at times but i have learned he will not change his mind unless new information comes to light, and will patiently and comprehensively explain why. I don’t believe i am at risk of a Red for dissent and i aim to keep it that way!
“Goldson’s volleyball odyssey”
Excellent.
Interesting to see that the YW views this one differently to some of the others recent ones. I suppose the part of his analysis that’s missing is the compare and contrast to decisions (not only against celtic) in other matches.
I’m sure he viewed Berna and MOR penalties as incorrect decisions but the issue here is that the MSM keep telling us we’re paranoid and then finding reasons to support decisions for one team and against another
Hi Tom
His remit is to look at each incident on its own merits
i don’t ask nor expect him to seek trends or opine on underlying issues
That is my job!
Thanks for reading and commenting.
Alan, excellent control not trying to “lead the witness” for the derby match! I think I would have had an internal tantrum at them seeing as even ex sevco pundits thought it was a pen. ?
Still goes to prove you can trust YWs judgement as impartial other times.
Do you have any inclining if anyone in the club is aware of this project?
Hi Doug and thanks
I was told they had seen the article on the Jota offside at Motherwell. I would not expect the club to respond to “fan media” inputs however! And rightly so.
All small business have marketing and social media departments
You can bet your life everything is monitored and quality journalism like this will be presented on slide shows to the board
Also , they are all fans like us with phones and kids who are fans with phones
In my view it’s stuff like this and mr kemp at the Scotsman that have emboldened the board to let Ange speak out,
Var has exposed the bias because in the past it’s been debated on sportscene
Now top refs are watching slow motion and still dishing out the pro rangers decisions.
There’s no paranoia – it’s just simple facts
I would guess it’s corruption that’s behind it
Low salary refs have always been money targets
Let’s be honest
Regarding the honest mistakes scenario, its a good job they are not surgeons the hospitals would be half empty.
I’m admittedly a bit dim but you’ve lost me there
Was the YW asked about the push and hand ball on Fletcher at the back post in the same game .. If not why not… The GRADE 1 REFEREE using the VAR TECHNOLOGY the grade 1 referee on the park and the assistant referee ..we have been told that they all missed it
Interesting perspective from the YW there.
There was a Kilmarnock penalty claim in the opening minutes at Parkhead on Saturday, as well as a potential Cameron Carter Vickers handball in the Celtic penalty area in the build up to Celtic’s second goal. Is the YW looking at either of those incidents?
I don’t think it was a penalty btw, but I’d expect it to be checked if it was at the other end of the ground or had it been done by a Rangers defender. The CCV incident didn’t even make it into the highlights on YouTube (didn’t see Sportscene; maybe there), but it was in at least on BBC report I read, it was discussed on SSB by a Killie fan who’d been at the game (for about 25 minutes) and the person sitting next to me spotted it in the build up. Obviously I’m glad Nick Walsh didn’t see it or do anything about it, but still.
Also maybe an Ash Taylor handball in the box?
Hi Alan,
One thing that would be good to outline (perhaps you have and I’ve missed it) would be how you decide what decisions to refer to TYW.
This step in the process could introduce some selection bias, and as this evolves what may be interesting would be to have incidents selected by you and an equivalent rangers stats person (they’re not my team so I don’t know who) to help mitigate the risk of cherry-picking. I’m not accusing you of that, just noting a reasonable challenge on the approach taken.
Its a good challenge Bobby
I tend to follow the zeitgeist following the game in terms of what are the topics of conversation and make media scrutiny
i then watch both clubs highlights to see if there is anything untoward – my judgement
Not perfect but happy for folk to refer – but some people overreach badly into vexatious incidents
This is fair enough btw, and it’s probably worth reminding myself and everyone else that we’ve your private efforts to thanks for all of this information. My only concern is that the zeitgeist is disproportionately influenced by Celtic fans. As I said, there was one irate Killie fan on SSB about this post-match. How many irate Celtic fans would there be per one Killie equivalent? etc.
If there is something remotely dodgy in a Celtic game I normally refer to avoid the bias you suggest
It was just in that game there was nothing that seemed plausible
Yes, that’s understandable. It was just because opponents’ fans were going on about the incidents somewhat. The penalty claim was repeated on the highlights etc. Clearly you are making the best calls on this that you can and I also presume you try not to over-exploit the YW by taking up more of his time than you feel is necessary.
I think this would be great. The YT model is near perfect, apart from this. Is there not one credible Rangers stats Twitter feed that Alan sometimes retweets from? I’m sure I’ve seen one kind of Rangers by Numbers type thing. If they were able to propose equivalent incidents, this thing would be roughly unimpeachable.
I did pursue that and opened the offer to a couple of accounts. They demurred. It may surprise you it is quite difficult to interact with their support in good faith.
Yes, that is no surprise whatsoever. Even some of the more objective ones would likely fear taking a hit from their frontline client base if they were seen to interact. Part of the problem on all this, for sure. But not your problem. Thanks.
Truly shocked, perhaps there isn’t the desire to review “honest mistakes” on that side of the city.