The last round of matches occurred on the 2nd January before the break for winter. Celtic went to St Mirren whilst The Rangers hosted Kilmarnock.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
02/01/24 St Mirren vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee | David Munro |
Game Minute | 45th |
Score At Time | 0-2 |
Incident | Alistair Johnston goes down defending a throw then Olusanya fouls Hart |
Outcome | Foul to Celtic and YC to Olusanya; VAR review leads to RC upgrade to Olusanya |
Evidence | St Mirren 0-3 Celtic | Maeda Scores After Just 54 Seconds | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:20 |
02/01/24 The Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee | John Beaton |
Game Minute | 45th |
Score At Time | 1-0 |
Incident | Sima scores for TRFC |
Outcome | Goal to TRFC |
Evidence | Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Gers Sign Off For Winter Break With Dominant Win | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:55 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Goal awarded
Under pressure from a Kilmarnock defender, Sima receives the ball into his chest before turning and slamming the ball home. There is a question of a potential handball in the build-up as Sima goes to control the ball. His right arm extends out as the ball hits him, but I do not feel there isn’t any conclusive evidence the ball hits his arm below the imaginary ‘t-shirt’ line which would have constituted a foul. If anything, I suspect the ball hits him on the shoulder, rather than the arm. Verdict: CORRECT decision to award the goal |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Referee | John Beaton |
Game Minute | 59th |
Score At Time | 2-0 |
Incident | Ball hits Souttar in the box |
Outcome | No decision; Penalty to Kilmarnock upon VAR review |
Evidence | Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Gers Sign Off For Winter Break With Dominant Win | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 2:28 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Initially no decision, but penalty awarded to Kilmarnock after VAR review.
Kilmarnock work the ball down the right-hand side and the cross is then blocked at close range by the sliding body of Souttar. His proximity is very close to the ball so I can understand why the on-field referee doesn’t give the handball offence in real time. On VAR review, I was surprised the referee overturned his decision in all honesty. Yes, the ball does hit Souttar’s right elbow, but the arm is not fully extended, but rather bent inwards slightly. Given the body shape, the sliding motion and the close proximity of Souttar to when the ball was struck, I do not believe this meets the criteria for a handball offence. Verdict: INCORRECT decision to award the penalty kick. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
-0.15 xPts TRFC |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The 75-match run without conceding a penalty comes to an end in a laughably absurd manner. Somehow a penalty is concocted for handball, but the Verdict above really speaks for itself.
That cancels out all the concerns regarding such an improbably run and we can all go back to normal now. Eh, no, that’s not how data and patterns over multiple seasons works. Nice try though!
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.32 less points and Celtic 0.8 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.48 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic led by eight points after 22 matches having played two games more.
Al Parker says
Hi Alan,
How is the ‘-0.15 xPts TRFC’ for the penalty decision calculated? Or could you point me in the direction of an explainer of the calculations.
Thanks,
Alex
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hi Alex
Yes the explainer is in the link at the top but as you ask so politely!
Kilmarnock were the away side and 0-2 down in the 59th minute. That was the game state. A goal at that point adds 0.2 to their xPts. However, a penalty has a 77% chance of conversion so we multiply 0.2 by 0.77 = 0.15. Hope that makes sense. Alan
RefMartin says
The YW has been hard at it over the past couple of weeks, he will be glad of a rest!
The Kilmarnock penalty was laughably absurd. It was also the sort of decision that bookies would want investigated. We’re I allowed to bet on football (I’m not, I’m an employed ref and thus have a worldwide football betting ban) I would’ve bet a few weeks ago on The Rangers getting a penalty in this game. Couldn’t have risked it against Celtic, but the media scrutiny was finally arriving and everyone knows in Scotland that giving 1 penalty would end that completely. Kilmarnock under McInnes was a safe bet as it was a likely win anyway. Once it went 2-0 it really was a case of guess the minute.
I obviously kept my counsel on this until after the event as otherwise they could theoretically still haul me up in front of FIFA for giving insider information (even though I was merely analysing trends) and fine me 100,000 Swiss francs which I don’t have…