A delayed catch up on the big decisions affecting the final SPFL Premier games of the season.
Thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
BACKGROUND – I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
07/05/22 Celtic vs Hearts
Incident 1
Referee | Don Robertson |
Game Minute | 3rd |
Incident | Simms scores for Hearts |
Outcome | Goal to Hearts |
Evidence | Celtic 4-1 Hearts | Celtic on Brink of Winning Premiership! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 00:01 |
Incident 2
Referee | Don Robertson |
Game Minute | 37th |
Incident | Furuhashi scores from Jota header |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | Celtic 4-1 Hearts | Celtic on Brink of Winning Premiership! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 01:25 |
Incident 3
Referee | Don Robertson |
Game Minute | 90th |
Incident | Giakoumakis scores for Celtic |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | Celtic 4-1 Hearts | Celtic on Brink of Winning Premiership! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 04:03 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic
The only point of contention I could see here was the opening pass into the feet of the Celtic forward player and whether he was stood in an offside position as the pass is made. For me the Celtic player takes up a good position between the two Hearts defenders. He appears to be level. Verdict: Correct decision to award goal. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
07/05/22 The Rangers vs Dundee Utd
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 55th |
Incident | Sakala goes down under challenge from Siegrist |
Outcome | Penalty to TRFC |
Evidence | Rangers 2-0 Dundee United | Tavernier Scores Penalty As Rangers Secure 3 Points! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
02:30 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Penalty to The Rangers
Sakala flicks ball past on rushing Dundee Utd keeper who appears to take out Sakala and the penalty is awarded. Real time and slow-motion replay both confirm this is a straight forward call. Keeper clearly gets the player and not the ball. Verdict: Correct decision to award penalty. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
11/05/22 The Rangers vs Ross County
Referee | Andrew Dallas |
Game Minute | 29th |
Incident | Tavernier goes down in the box from Iacovitti |
Outcome | Penalty to TRFC |
Evidence | Celtic are cinch Premiership Champions! | Matchweek 37 Round Up | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 10:44 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Penalty to Rangers.
Tavernier breaks into box and evades the sliding challenge of the Ross County defender, who then appears to catch the Rangers captain. Again, this appears to be a routine decision. The Ross County defender commits to a sliding challenge and his momentum sees his out stretched boot miss the ball and then catch the Rangers player on the shin. Not much contact but enough to warrant the foul. Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
14/05/22 Celtic vs Motherwell
Referee | Alan Muir |
Game Minute | 59th |
Incident | Jota scores for Celtic |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | Celtic 6-0 Motherwell | Celtic Lift Title after SIX goals! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 02:09 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Goal to Celtic
Jota looks to time his run and slots home from a through ball from Maizen. In real time this looks a really close call and the first slow motion replay shows that Jota went a split second too soon. He is just offside as the pass is made. Verdict: Incorrect decision. Goal should have been disallowed for offside. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
+0.05 xPts |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler. His Sheffield Wednesday team were pipped in the play offs (thanks to Paddy Roberts and Sunderland!) but he gamely persisted to the end of the SPFL season.
It looked like it was going to be a clean sheet for the referees over the last few game weeks, until Alan Muir spoiled it and it was Celtic who benefited. With their 4th goal. That earned approximately 0.05 xPts. Whoopy doo.
Minimal movement in the FINAL xPts position then.
At the final reckoning, Celtic had 3.59 LESS Points than expected and The Rangers had 1.47 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes.
The overall difference, therefore, is 5.06 points.
Celtic won the league by 4 points.
Had VAR been in place, assuming that the VAR operators agreed with the Yorkshire Whistler’s verdicts, Celtic would have won the league a week or so earlier.
I will be summarising the Honest Mistake series in a follow up post.
Aidan Thomas says
A really interesting project, thanks very much to you both for seeing it through ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks Aidan
Ryan M says
Would love to see a breakdown of referee performance broken down to who harmed and who helped each team. Doubt it would be big enough for any statistical significance but might be interesting.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
On its way but agree sample sizes now quite small
Mac Giolla Ghunna says
Fair play to you and the Yorkshire Whistler. I do enjoy a stat or two myself but i don’t think i’d have the patience or dedication you have Aiden. Hopefully this will continue into the next season and beyond.
Maith thú.
Peter S says
Really enjoyed reading the Yorkshires Whistlers verdict on game changing decisions.
It’s peace of mind knowing that all the Celtic fans are not paranoid as our media and journalists always make out.
Would have been interesting to know the figures for last seasons honest mistakes!!
Would be great to keep it going for next season and beyond.
Many thanks and much appreciated.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks Peter
Joe Fee says
thanks for all your work in the past couple of seasons
Hail Hail
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks Joe