This piece takes us up to date with a review of the big calls following Celtic’s match versus Motherwell and The Rangers big trip to close rivals Aberdeen.
There is also a bonus catch up of an incident at Ross County which previously lacked video evidence.
Also please note following an arithmetical error on my part (not unusual). Celtic are 0.8 xPts down not 0.6.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
SPFL Game Week Fourteen
04/11/23 Ross County vs Celtic
Incident 4
| Referee | David Munro |
| Game Minute | 22nd |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | Oh heads over from a corner |
| Outcome | No decision |
| Evidence | Video provided |
25/11/23 Celtic vs Motherwell
Incident 1
| Referee | Steven McLean |
| Game Minute | 62nd |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | Kelly collects a lose pass |
| Outcome | No decision |
| Evidence | Celtic 1-1 Motherwell | Late Obika Equaliser Gives Steelmen Draw! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
1:00 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Kelly collects a loose Celtic pass in his box
Initial on field decision: No foul committed Motherwell keeper collects the ball and misjudges his proximity to edge of the 18-yard box so instinctively releases the ball before using his body to shield the ball and then pick it up again inside the 18-yard box. This incident seems to happen very quickly, and I have some sympathy for the match officials not being certain what contact happens in & outside the box. You can certainly see Kelly’s left hand release the ball before his slide exits the penalty area, but his right arm and the ball are tucked in, and it is difficult to confirm if his right hand has released the ball. On balance I would give the keeper the benefit of the doubt initially as the video is inconclusive, however what should have been easier to identify is the offence punishable by and indirect free kick that occurred. Law 12 Fouls & Misconduct states it is an indirect free kick if the goalkeeper touches the ball with the hand/arm after releasing it & before it has touched another player. Kelly clears releases and then picks the ball back up in one passage of play which should have been recognised by the match officials. Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Indirect free kick the expected outcome. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
| Referee | Steven McLean |
| Game Minute | 64th |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | Mugabi challenges Oh in the box |
| Outcome | Penalty to Celtic; YC to Mugabi |
| Evidence | Celtic 1-1 Motherwell | Late Obika Equaliser Gives Steelmen Draw! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
1:22 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Mugabi challenges On inside the penalty area
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Celtic. Mugabi cautioned for the foul. Mugabi stretches to clear the ball before Oh can tuck it away, but clearly his leg catches the Celtic man’s left leg and a clear foul is committed. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
| Referee | Steven McLean |
| Game Minute | 70th |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | Taylor fouls Spittal |
| Outcome | Foul to Motherwell; YC to Taylor |
| Evidence | Video provided |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Taylor fouls Spittal
Initial on field decision: Free kick to Motherwell, caution to Taylor after Var review Taylor & Spittal both stretch to win the ball, Taylor gets there a fraction late and clearly catches the Motherwell on the top of the foot. Motherwell are asking for a red card, but I feel the correct sanction of a reckless tackle is applied here. Taylor’s foot, although missing the ball, isn’t particularly high and he contacts the opponent as his foot and studs are connecting with the ground, in a downwards motion. This does not meet the criteria of a red card (tackle with excessive force /endangering players safety). Verdict: CORRECT DECISION. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 4
| Referee | Steven McLean |
| Game Minute | 83rd |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | M. Johnston goes down in box under challenge from Butcher |
| Outcome | No decision; following VAR review penalty to Celtic and YC to Butcher |
| Evidence | Celtic 1-1 Motherwell | Late Obika Equaliser Gives Steelmen Draw! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
2:33 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | M Johnston goes down in the box following a corner
Initial on field decision: Initially no decision but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Celtic for a pulling offence. Great spot by VAR here, as Butcher’s left-hand clears grabs Johnston’s shirt and pulls him back significantly enough to prevent him making contact with the ball. A clear pulling offence. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
26/11/23 Aberdeen vs The Rangers
Incident 1
| Referee | Nick Walsh |
| Game Minute | 90th |
| Score At Time | 1-0 |
| Incident | Goldson goes down in the area |
| Outcome | No decision; upon VAR review penalty to TRFC and YC to Gartenmann |
| Evidence | Aberdeen 1-1 Rangers | Late Penalty Brings Rangers Level | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:06 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Goldson goes down in the area
Initial on field decision: Initially no decision, but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers and Gartenmann cautioned for a pulling offence. Another good spot by VAR here as Goldson breaks away from his marker but before he can attempt to head the ball is clearly pulled back by his marker. I do feel Goldson drops to the floor quite easily, as Gartenmann releases his shirt, but the offence has already been committed and Goldson’s running momentum has been interrupted by the initial pulling offence. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty for the pulling offence |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
| Referee | Nick Walsh |
| Game Minute | 90th |
| Score At Time | 1-1 |
| Incident | Goldson fouls Polvara |
| Outcome | Free kick to Aberdeen and YC to Goldson |
| Evidence | https://x.com/IKieranConnolly/status/1728886809055379691?s=20 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Goldson fouls Polvara
Initial on field decision: Free kick to Aberdeen, Goldson cautioned Goldson would appear to be very lucky here, as I feel an act of violent conduct has occurred. Goldson clearly swings his left arm back into the face of the Aberdeen player and force me this is with excessive force, is unwarranted and Goldson also has a quick look first to see where the player is stood before swinging his arm back. I am very surprised the VAR team have not recommended an on-field review for a possible red card offence and feel sure had the on-field referee watched the replay, Goldson would have received his marching orders. Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Red card issued to Goldson the expected outcome. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
TRFC +0.35 xPts |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Another VAR incident leaves the Yorkshire Whistler “very surprised” which is as strong as it gets. At least I am less inclined to believe he is related to Conor Goldson after finally finding fault with his elbow into Dante Polvara’s head!
A note on the expected points outcome here. The xPts mechanism for sendings off is a bit of a blunt instrument as it awards a uniform average value depending on if you are the home or away team. Not ideal but remember this is a model and so a guide. If someone has a model that averages the xPts impact of a sending off given both time in match and game state please contact me.
Until then, some you win (sending off is in the first minute) and some you lose (sending off is in the last minute). In this instance, Aberdeen got no added time benefit and The Rangers next opponent(s) do not get the benefit of a suspended Goldson. So, on balance, meh.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.25 less points and Celtic 0.8 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.55 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by eight points after 14 matches having played a game more.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS ARTICLE WAS EDITED ON 15TH DECEMBER 2023. THE EXPECTED POINTS IMPACT OF THE NON SENDING OFF OF GOLDSON VS ABERDEEN WAS ASSIGNED THE DEFAULT HOME TEAM IMPACT INSTEAD OF THE AWAY TEAM IMPACT. THIS IS NOW CORRECTED.
Thanks as always – I find this really helpful.
I wonder about the Goldson red. So late in the game, it is still expected to be 0.8pts worth? Seems high intuitively.
As i mentioned in the text, it is. Bit of a blunt instrument the sending off xPts piece unfortunately. Some you’ll win some you’ll lose
Slightly confused by the Goldson incident.
I agree it should’ve been a red card but given that it was 1-1 and in the 90th minute, surely a +0.86 XG in rangers’ favour is a bit high?
Even with 10 men, the chances of them losing the game from that stage, were pretty low I’d say
Alan went to great pains in the article to talk about the lack of adaptable data for xG at red cards. Intrinsically we would expect that stage of the game that xG would be lower, at around 0.3, but the evidence base just isn’t there and thus he has to work with the imperfect tools at his disposal. Over the course of a season as long as the methodology holds (or, if a better method arises it is applied retrospectively) it shouldn’t affect the longer term trend.
I think Alan already puts a staggering amount of effort into these posts and couldn’t possibly expect him to develop a new modelling tool on top.
As for the YW, I think he’s spot on with these ones again. There’s a potential for DOGSO on the MJ foul but I think on balance most refs would award a yellow here unless his foot was about to make contact and he was sharply hauled away. Good spot VAR, but it was extremely obvious in game too so I’d actually say bad miss by on field ref.
Goldson one easier to miss in game, but VAR did well to spot it. The issue is less that it was spotted and adjudged a penalty, but that when relating to one team it is “always@ spotted, unlike with every other game.
Yes, though given the relatively minimal number of incidents in question, the running xPts need to come with a serious health warning. Admittedly, here, you could argue that in this particular case, Goldson (in my view, one of their stronger players and one of the better defenders in the league), will have been available for the next game when he shouldn’t have been.
Apologies, I meant the pull on Goldson was a good spot by VAR. Terrible miss for the red to be honest. I agree, he’s probably their best defender and definitely the “leader” of the defence, despite captain disappointed being ostensibly beside him.
The annoyance comes from a (probably justified or there wouldn’t be a group perception) belief that any other defender but a Sevco one would have been upgraded for that.
Not sure having now seen how their game yesterday went that Goldson’s absence would have impacted much but still.
Damian – agreed but my personal objective is to discern MULTI SEASON trends
Martin – spot on and thank you