This edition covers fixtures on the 18th March – match day 29.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
18/03/23 Motherwell vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 3rd |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | van Veen scores for Motherwell |
Outcome | Goal to Motherwell confirmed by VAR review |
Evidence | (4) Motherwell 2-4 Rangers | The Gers Claim Dramatic Win To Extend Unbeaten Run | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:00 |
Incident 2
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 62nd |
Score At Time | 2-2 |
Incident | Cantwell scores for TRFC |
Outcome | Goal to TRFC confirmed by VAR review |
Evidence | (4) Motherwell 2-4 Rangers | The Gers Claim Dramatic Win To Extend Unbeaten Run | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:26 |
Incident 3
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 76th |
Score At Time | 2-4 |
Incident | Cantwell and Slattery battle for the ball |
Outcome | Foul to TRFC; 2nd YC and RC for Slattery upon VAR review |
Evidence | (4) Motherwell 2-4 Rangers | The Gers Claim Dramatic Win To Extend Unbeaten Run | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:03 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Foul to Rangers, 2nd yellow card and subsequent sending off for Slattery.
Slattery appears to raise an arm in a defensive motion to shield himself from an incoming Cantwell challenge. Cantwell drops to the floor and Slattery is shown a 2nd yellow card, for an offence committed in a reckless manner. Not sure, I agree with the decision here. I appreciate there is an element of subjectivity with these kinds of contact and, on the day, the match referee felt the raised arm was a reckless offence. However, what I saw at full speed, was a player in possession of the ball, having the situational awareness to know a challenge was incoming and so twisting his body round, to shield himself and protect the ball. At no time does Slattery look up and know where Cantwell’s body or face is. Player’s offence outstretch their rear arm in anticipation of the that challenge coming in from behind. Cantwell charges into this arm and for me the referee would have been within his rights to not even award the free kick or just sell the contact as accidental and not that of a reckless offence. Clearly the referee saw this incident differently, but I feel the wrong outcome was arrived at here. Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Nothing here that warranted a 2nd yellow card. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
TRFC +0.86 xPts |
18/03/23 Celtic vs Hibernian
Incident 1
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 23rd |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Youan and Carter-Vickers challenge for the ball |
Outcome | Foul to Celtic; 2nd YC for Youan leading to RC |
Evidence | (4) Celtic 3-1 Hibernian | Oh Hyeon-gyu Completes Comeback With Winner Off Bench! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:57 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic. 2nd yellow card and subsequent red card to Youan.
Carter-Vickers takes a boot to the face for his troubles which sees Youan pick up the 2nd yellow card. Usually when a player kicks another player in the face, the expected outcome is either a red card for serious foul play (endangering players safety) or at least a yellow card for committing a reckless challenge. So, on this basis, you could say the yellow is expected. However, I do have an element of sympathy for Youan. He seems to know that Carter-Vickers is stood upright behind him. So, he’s probably just tried to kick the ball blindly, not knowing that Carter-Vickers will actually attempt a diving header to play the ball. A general rule of thumb he, is that the lower the attempted header is, the less likely we are dealing with a red/yellow card offence. On the day, the referee could possibly have managed this particular foul without the 2nd yellow card, but on the basis that the boot does clearly catch the diving Carter-Vickers in the face, I would just about concur with the 2nd yellow card being brandished for the reckless challenge. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 35th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Starfelt and Hanlon go for a long throw into the box |
Outcome | Foul to Hibs and penalty for shirt pull against Starfelt – adjudged by VAR |
Evidence | (4) Celtic 3-1 Hibernian | Oh Hyeon-gyu Completes Comeback With Winner Off Bench! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:33 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Long throw comes into Celtic box
Initial on field decision: after Var review, penalty awarded for a shirt pull by Starfelt. One of those areas of contact that can be initially missed by the referee in a congested box, but I believe VAR is right to recommend the referee reviews Starfelt actions here. He clearly pulls back on the shirt of the Hibs player and in doing so, impedes his ability to challenge for the head. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 51st |
Score At Time | 0-1 |
Incident | Hanlon and Carter-Vickers jostle in box for a Celtic corner |
Outcome | Foul to Celtic and penalty |
Evidence | (4) Celtic 3-1 Hibernian | Oh Hyeon-gyu Completes Comeback With Winner Off Bench! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:40 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Carter-Vickers goes down in the box under a challenge from Hanlon
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic Carter-Vickers tries to wriggle free from the attempts of Hanlon, who never once looks at the ball. As we see quite often at corner kicks, the objective is to not allow the attacking player a free attempt to head/strike the ball. Unfortunately for Hanlon, he momentarily loses his man, which then results in him reaching out and grabbing/pulling Carter-Vickers’s shoulders. He then let’s go but Carter-Vickers has already begun to lose his balance. In this situation I am comfortable there has been enough unfair grappling by Hanlon that exceeds what is normally accepted in these situations and the penalty is the expected outcome. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
It was a lively game at Celtic Park as the Champions came from behind to beat Hibernian 3-1. There was another Celtic penalty awarded on the day but Liel Abada clearly tripped over prior to any contact from David Marshall. According to the Yorkshire Whistler, Steven McLean and his VAR team got the big calls spot on so kudos for that.
At Fir Park, Motherwell, though, it was face in hand time as Nick Walsh appears to be badly let down by his VAR team led by the indomitable Andrew Dallas. It is unclear whether Dallas is even considered a top flight referee any more and whether it was rusty eyes or something else, there are even hints of impropriety once again at this venue that saw David Dickinson operate outside SFA guidelines to disallow a Jota goal earlier in the season.
“I am inclined to feel this image does not feel quite right” the Yorkshire Whistler stated. Remember: he is a verifiably neutral professional referee with no experience of or prior interest in the Scottish game. My site is fully searchable and I hope you can see that, as with many referees, he manages to infuriate all supporters equally! Because he is free from bias and calls it as he sees it using his expert knowledge. Something most of us fans lack.
For Dallas and referee Nick Walsh to make two, big, incorrect calls in one game is noteworthy. It does, however, continue what is now a clear trend of favourable outcomes for The Rangers since early September.
Not many games left for the ol’ evening up!
Of course, analysis in the mainstream media of the decisions influencing the top of the table and thus access to Champions League cash, was obfuscated by a slew of dodgy decisions across the league and reversion to the ol’ Aunt Sally of general “incompetence”.
In terms of impact on the expected points picture:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 4.99 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 9.11 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points and 27 goals after 29 matches.
John welsh says
What about throw-in, for 1st penalty, left leg off ground, when left hands.
Doug McLean says
You see Alan, clearly decisions do even themselves out. 4.99 -4.12, is pretty much zero.
I don’t see what all the fuss is about.
🙂
Martin says
Hmm, whilst I agree with the YW on all counts (though I’d have booked Starfelt) I have misgivings about using the Cantwell goal in the expected points tally and not looking at the Motherwell goal, at the same end, with a similar level of controversy about VAR angles and lines. I suspect that was also offside and may have had an effect on the running scores… Much as I hate to give any leeway to that lot.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I wasn;t aware of any dissent towards the Motherwell opener but happy to be corrected and to refer?
Martin says
It was basically the same as their 3rd. Probably offside, but really hard to be definitive from most angles as the grass pattern and the 18 yard line are at weird angles to each other. And the VAR line looked very very odd.
I feel dirty bringing it up as even when flipping a coin for kickoff if the ibrox club called tails. I’d use a 2 headed coin… But I’m also a scientist and know we need to use all the data.
Damian says
I certainly thought the Motherwell opener looked quite clearly offside, but the Sky VAR footage (hardly unimpeachable) had to get the vertical lines involved. It presented the lines showing that Goldson’s shoulder blade was playing the winger’s upper arm onside.
But, I get where you’re coming from. If the Cantwell one is in the mix, that one was probably worth a look.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Martin
To my biased eyes it looks a long way onside but i have referred to YW as, given Dallas’ unfathomable offside decision later, it needs to be looked at
Martin says
Thanks Alan, I must admit I was in 2 minds but the moaning from online sevconians and the crappy VAR lines did make me interested to see what a neutral YW thought. Maybe I was being selfishly disappointed it wasn’t there. It’s awful debating with their lot especially my friends who know I’m a ref, as I try to look at it objectively but I know I literally can’t. Hence why I don’t ref in Scotland. Which in itself raises questions about our officials..
Joe G says
I do think it’s worth noting that virtually every throw into the Celtic box is a foul throw. It is never penalised. It may sound so petty but if they are going to go back and look at the likes of the Starfelt foul, they need to look at the ball coming into the box in the first place. My worry before VAR came in was that the car ref will pick and choose what they decide to review (with inbuilt bias influencing this) and I think this has been borne out since it was implemented.
Wayne says
100%
BBC Smokescreen
When EVERYTHING goes wrong
Who Profits
TRFC
Martin says
Alan,
Thanks for getting the YW to look at the van Veen goal. To be honest his views mirror my own here. Something feels very wrong about the VAR line and unfortunately the angle on the TV camera means we can’t be sure either way. I do get the feeling he was offside though.
Anyway, interesting as always!
The Cha says
“Law 11 states that the HANDS & ARMS of ALL players are not considered when determining offside ”
Of purely academic interest (“until Celtic are disadvantaged” cautions my inner paranoiac) but if the penultimate defender is the goalkeeper, whose body is further forward than the active attacker but his arms are extended backwards, nearer the goal than the attacker, surely that would be onside?
Martin says
Cha,
Yes to a point. Only if the attacker, goalkeeper and the ball are in the box. The spirit of the law is that only body parts that can legally play the ball count. So yes, on a very rare occasion we might consider the arm as per your point, though we never consider the attacker’s arms.
The Cha says
Cheers, that’s what I would expect.