Catching up now as we move into SPFL week six. The Champions had what was considered a tricky assignment in Livingston. Plucky challengers The Rangers took on a resurgent Motherwell at home.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
SPFL Game Week Six
23/09/23 Livingston vs Celtic
Incident 1
| Referee | John Beaton |
| Game Minute | 13th |
| Score At Time | 0-0 |
| Incident | Hatate goes down in the box |
| Outcome | Penalty to Celtic and YC to De Lucas |
| Evidence | Livingston 0-3 Celtic | Maeda Scores Stunner As Hart Sees Red | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:25 |
Incident 2
| Referee | John Beaton |
| Game Minute | 25th |
| Score At Time | 0-1 |
| Incident | Sangare and Scales clash |
| Outcome | Foul to Livingston and YC to Scales |
| Evidence | https://x.com/AJ_CELTIC/status/1705566720155324551?s=20 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Sangare and Scales clash
Initial on field decision: Scales cautioned Sangare & Scales both look to win the ball. Sangare’s left leg is out stretched and just wins the ball. Scales appears to pull out of the tackle and it is more Sangare’s overstretched momentum that collides into the Celtic player. I feel any injury incurred by Sangare is a result of his momentum and his twisting back then collides into the knee of and Scales. Scales can consider himself very unlucky to have received a caution for not doing anything wrong here. I do not feel a foul has been committed here by either player. Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION – no foul or caution expected |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
| Referee | John Beaton |
| Game Minute | 28th |
| Score At Time | 0-1 |
| Incident | Hart clashes with Sangare outside the box |
| Outcome | Free Kick to Livingston and RC to Hart |
| Evidence | Livingston 0-3 Celtic | Maeda Scores Stunner As Hart Sees Red | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:12 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Hart & Sangare clash
Initial on field decision: Free kick to awarded to Livingston. Hart sent off Sangare beats the offside trap and Hart races out of his goal in an attempt to clear the ball. Sangare just beats Hart to the ball and then receives the full weight of Hart’s outstretched body. A foul has been committed here in my opinion as Sangare does nick the ball away from Hart’s leg. So, there are now two considerations for the on-field referee to process. Is the challenge by Hart deemed to be reckless in nature (yellow card) or with excessive force/endangered the players safety (red card)? Although I have some sympathy for the Celtic keeper here as he does seem to have eyes only for the ball, he is jumping to kick the ball with his studs raised (due to the bounce of the ball). This means his foot and body hit Sangare above waist height and clearly hurt the Livingston player. The height of this foul I feel does meet the criteria for ‘endangering player safety’ and so would agree with the on-field decision to show the red card. Verdict: CORRECT DECISION |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
23/09/23 The Rangers vs Motherwell
Incident 1
| Referee | Alan Muir |
| Game Minute | 35th |
| Score At Time | 1-0 |
| Incident | Motherwell player goes down in the box under challenge from Tavernier |
| Outcome | No decision |
| Evidence | https://x.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1706668429858726181?s=20 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Motherwell player goes down near Tavernier
Initial on field decision: No foul committed Cross comes into the box and Tavernier & Motherwell player running towards the ball. Tavernier is quite clever here as they are running together he leans in slightly to get his body in front of the ball. This makes the Motherwell off balance and he jumps and then falls to the ground. In real time I was not convinced there was enough contact for a foul to have been committed and simply thought the Motherwell player had been out muscled fairly. However, in slow motion there does appear to be a clear infringement committed by Tavernier as his right leg appears to trip the Motherwell player. If it had been just his upper body contact I would say not enough for a foul, but the right leg clearly prevents the Motherwell player for fairly jumping for the ball. Totally understandable at that speed why the referee didn’t see it, but surprised it was not reviewed by VAR and recommended for the referee to have another look at it. Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. If VAR had recommended on field review, I believe referee would have awarded a penalty kick (not a red card though as Tavernier does make some attempt to challenge/play the ball) |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
TRFC +0.47 |
Incident 2
| Referee | Alan Muir |
| Game Minute | |
| Score At Time | 1-0 |
| Incident | Tavernier and Spittal come together as Spittal runs towards goal |
| Outcome | Foul to TRFC |
| Evidence | https://x.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1706257346589016387?s=20 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Spittal runs towards goal
Initial on field decision: Free kick awarded to Rangers Initially the Motherwell player appears to have done nothing wrong rather than outmuscle the Rangers man. However, the referee when awarding the defensive free kick clearly indicates the Motherwell player has pulled on the shirt of the defender at the start of the move, before the coming together inside the penalty area. Not enough video to discredit what the referee has seen here (and shirt pulling does happen often and can quite often be difficult to see from certain angles) Verdict: CORRECT decision |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
James Tavernier’s foul on the Motherwell forward made neither the highlight packages nor days of press scrutiny. Funny that.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.16 less points than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
Celtic lead by four points after six matches.
No issues in either game where I feel on field calls were unreasonable, even when incorrect. The VAR intervention for the Motherwell penalty is a strange one. I agree with YW… There’s definitely enough for a penalty and weird it wasn’t reviewed. Especially given the pretty clear claims by the Motherwell players.
I like the way you “score” these, Alan, and I’d say 0/-0.16 is probably within the acceptable limits. End of season scores more useful, but so far I’m sort of OK with the big decisions on the whole. The Motherwell non penalty is the first one I’ve seen this year that I thought came from the Govan anomaly. Let’s see if any pattern develops, or random scatter remains.
I would have more respect for these decisions, which I think YW has probably got right, if some obvious issues were dismissed in the discussion. For instance, when Hart is sent off, surely the opposing player moving at speed , full studs up at head height, warrants a mention?, I’ve seen Celtic players sent off for much less dangerous tackles. As I say I think YW gets this right, but surely at least commenting on, if only to discount.
The second one in the same game, if no one else has seen this alleged pull on the players shirt, and millions watching the very incident on tv also do not see it, then why the benefit of the doubt, when there is no evidence to say anything happened, no maybes even, zilch, nothing, nada?, so why assume something has?.
Both players at the Hart incident were heading for a red card. The question was who would get there first and nick the ball, and who would come 2nd and cop the red. Livi striker got there first so his contact is with the ball rather than Hart. But the coin could’ve landed the other way….the cynic in me thinks had that happened the Livi player would’ve escaped with a yellow, the DOGSO element of a keeper charging out his box isn’t there for an attacker, though either player making contact with those leg positions should be serious foul play.
If (and it is a if) the Occam’s razor reason for your past few years’ worth of findings on this were true, we could now be at he stage of using it predictively.
Michael Beale is a non win away from having an untenable position amongst the ibrox support. My understanding is that the board wish to hold fire a few weeks mo for financial reasons. Their visitors today are Aberdeen, a capable team who hate the Ibrox club and usually go into these games highly motivated. I would say, if there was a conspiracy to help Ibrox, that today would be a “high risk” game- i.e we should expect one or two in the game.
So, I’ll put my case forward like this: IF there are game changing “mistakes” in today’s game which favour the Govan lot, I will accept it is an endemic and conscious effort.
In saying that, I do expect no penalty for Aberdeen today and a penalty to Sevco. I won’t go as far as to say either decision will be wrong (Aberdeen may never enter the penalty box, for example)…yet.
Oh well….
If I was gaming this out btw Martin, I’d offer the counter proposal of the bad faith actor: that by Saturday, all Rangers fans and the overarching Rangers Industrial Complex that controls Scottish football wanted rid of Mickey, and so ensuring an Aberdeen victory was vital for the grand plan etc etc.
I did actually think of that after I posted my comment. The media had been briefing against him all week so it became a possibility. I suppose the only fair minded thing to do is see what happens next game, as with Beale gone we would now expect the leg up of all leg ups.
Yip. I’d also expect Rangers to get fewer cards than Celtic (unlike the year on year pattern, every year, since they’ve been in top flight; 19 more than Celtic last season etc.). Not sure if you’d consider that something you’d expect to see if there was active bias for/against a club?
Rangers are a joke, and all things show it. I’m happy to enjoy that, personally.
Yip. An interesting proposal, this. Only seeing it in hindsight, but still.