La Grand Muralla has returned to Celtic on a one-year loan deal – not official as I write but it looks like happening. What does Forster’s arrival mean for Bain and Gordon? Is it just injury cover, effectively replacing De Vries in the squad? Or are there grounds for Forster to push to take that number one jersey back?
The Undisputed Number One
Last end of season review I showed how, comprehensively, Bain had earned the number one shirt. You can review in The Undisputed Number One.
I look across a number of key metrics to show that Bain was making more saves, was saving shots of higher quality, and in addition was 8% higher on pass completion.
We know that the latter is not a priority for Lennon and the data shows Bain’s passing accuracy has fallen off the cliff – it is now 72% compared to 86% last season.
That is probably a team style conversation for another day.
This pre match short article will simply highlight two key goalkeeping metrics.
On Target Shots Saved
Let’s compare both ‘keepers last season tot his (remember very little data to go at this season):
Both incumbents have fallen off as regards the % of on target shots they are saving. Gordon was well behind Bain last season and his save % fell a further 2% this season.
Bain’s save % has collapsed from 85% to only 50% so far this season.
Goals Conceded vs xG
But as we know, if all you are saving is 40-yard trundlers, this doesn’t tell you the full story. We need to consider shot quality and hence the Expected Goal (xG) value of the shots on target.
What this shows is that in 18/19 Bain dealt with shots that had a per 90m xG of 0.616 but only conceded on average 0.37 goals. In other words, he saved more shots than could be expected given the shot quality.
But Gordon dealt with shots that would be expected to yield 0.741 goals per 90m, but actually conceded 0.84 goals per 90m. He was conceding more goals than expected.
This season has seen Bain face shots expected to yield 1.011 goals per 90m but is conceding 1.29 goals per 90m.
In Gordon’s two appearances, his xG against is 0.341 but he has conceded the equivalent of 0.43 goals per 90m.
So, both current Celtic ‘keepers are conceding more than expected. This may be as a result of lack of defensive cover of course. And we all know what a hot subject that is. Also, as mentioned, it is a very small data sample for this season.
But, using very simple metrics, it seems like Lennon could be right that the goalkeeping department needed strengthening.
Joseph Mcfarlane says
I think personally it’s a good signing for the club until the end of the season good luck to big Fraser
Joseph Mcfarlane says
I think personally it’s a good signing for the club until the end of the season good luck to big Fraser forster at celtic park
StevieBhoy68 says
It’s a loan signing, both good for The club and player. Competition is always good as well. Hail Hail
Joseph Kew says
I wish Our support stops questioning the manager. He will live or die by his own transfer dealings. Get behind him and the club. Our support sometimes are so fickle. Mo the hoops
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I don;t disagree with the sentiment behind what you are saying but I think you miss the point of me asking the question – I assume you read the article though?
Neil Carr says
I believe that Craig Gordon is one of the best goalkeepers that we have had. Fraser Foster is 6ft 7ins and has rarely came off his line to claim a cross ball, which seems to be a problem for the Celtic defence.
aldo67 says
Bain exceeded expectations last season, he made a lot of good saves. He surprised and impressed me. This season he’s looked completely average. Isn’t dominant enough with balls into the box, or, in general. He’s lost a bit of gallus.
Gordon gives me more confidence, As long as he doesn’t leave the 18y box. He’s good coming for crosses and we know he’s a good shot stopper.
Forster was pretty good first time around, it cant be a bad thing signing him, unless your Scott Bain.
My moneys on a Forster (2nd) debut Vs Hamilton.
Lesley Mcpherson says
If he s struggling to get a game for southhampton then he s no gd to us . I really dont think a goalkeeper is a priority for celtic as bain & gordos7evo7onen are far better
The Cha says
This is the big question for me; why has he gone from being the best keeper in England (albeit without getting the deserved international recognition) to 3rd choice behind 2 journeymen goalkeepers?
Joseph Mcfarlane says
The cha man is right from being 3rd choice to a virtual nobody he hasn’t played for a year at least in england