As we prepare for the SPFL to start up again, following the international break, here are the leaders in the Expected Scoring Contribution stakes.
Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is a bit of a mouthful but simply is:
Expected Goals per 90m + Expected Assists Per 90m = Expected Scoring Contribution per 90m
Or
xG90 + xA90 = xSC90
It is a method for assessing overall attacking threat.
- Who is creating the best QUALITY chances (xA)?
- Who is taking the best QUALITY shots (xG)?
The use of the word quality is deliberate as this is not a measure of volume of chances created or shots taken, but of the xG value of them i.e. their quality.
The criteria for selection at this very early stage of the season is:
- Top xSC90 from each club
- 400 minutes played (stretched a tiny bit for some)
- Over 0.30 xSC90
Here are the 24 qualifiers:
Note Liel Abada would be up with Jota and Matt O’Riley had he played another 60 minutes.
Firstly, and on topic, Motherwell will be no easy match up for Celtic this coming Saturday. Kevin van Veen is one of the hot forwards in Scottish football right now. Yes, his tally is boosted by penalties (two). But Motherwell are third in Scotland for xG Difference and their Dutch striker is a major reason for that.
Of the Celtic players, Kyogo Furuhashi leads the league in xG90 (0.82) and already has six goals in the league.
O’Riley and Jota are the league stand outs as players who both create and take good quality chances to a much higher level than the rest of the competition. Once playing minutes rise, expect Reo Hatate and David Turnbull to be similarly away from the pack but not to the levels of this pair.
Of the competition, there is a healthy smattering of Heart of Midlothian players. Lawrence Shankland and Bojan Miovski of the other high xG forwards benefit from penalties taken.
Talking of which, the extent to which The Rangers rely on their full backs is clear from this view. Their main creative midfielder (Ryan Kent) is on a par with Vincente Besuijen and Barry McKay.
I’ll keep this view refreshed as the season progresses.
This article was written using FotMob data.
These charts show nothing, wasn’t long ago this site was slagging off Rangers for quoting similar
Why is showing the whole leagues scoring contributors nothing?
Hi Alan,
As always great analysis and, like most Celtic supporters, I love Angeball at the moment but we desperately need another Davie Hay! Not only a great midfielder but the kind of enforcer that, for me, is missing!! Would he complete the jigsaw ?
Perhaps Abilgaard is the enforcer you are looking for? There is only one Davie Hay and only one George Connelly!! I expect GG will be up there in the scoring charts once he gets some starts.