By James Dailey
Now that Celtic have earned 9 in a row, it is time to look forward to securing 10. The overwhelming consensus I hear and read with regards to this past season’s campaign is that we ran away with the league, that Steven Gerrard is overrated and perhaps lucky to keep his job. And while there remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding finances and what a post-pandemic Scottish Premiership may look like, I believe it is worthwhile to try and conduct an objective analysis of our biggest domestic rivals and their current manager.
The reality is that this past season’s vintage of The Rangers was the first which came even close to competing with Celtic with regards to a wage bill, as it reached just over 70% vs Celtic’s. The preseason betting odds placed The Rangers with about a 29% chance to win the league, with Celtic at 79%. By comparison, Liverpool were at about 32% odds versus Manchester City at 60% to win the EPL. The prior season, with approximately 50% of Celtic’s wage budget, The Rangers were less than 15% odds, which was like Aberdeen’s prior to The Rangers making it to the Premiership. So how has Gerrard’s vintage performed?
I believe the following data from the last two campaigns of derby matches under Gerrard and his management team speaks for itself when compared to the preceding two seasons:
This data is per 90 minutes of play (all xG figures in this piece are ex-penalties) and comprises the 10 derby games under Rodgers preceding Gerrard’s arrival, and compares them with the 7 derby games under Gerrard. As referenced already, The Rangers have increased spending on player wages from approximately £6.5 million to about £22.8 million over the 4-season period, which is certainly a significant factor. Celtic won 4 of the 7 derbies versus Gerrard’s side with an aggregate xG of 8.02 vs 7.78 and aggregate goal totals of 7 vs 6. If we did a table where xG determined the “winner” for those 7 games, it was basically 3 wins each with 1 draw.
Premiership Comparison
Obviously, head to head is only one way of measuring teams, so let us look at underlying data for xG from Open Play (courtesy of Modern Fitba) for the SPFL league campaign this season.
This view also shows how close the performance of the two teams was during the season and indicates how comparable this season’s vintage of new Rangers was to last season’s Celtic team performance. Rangers effectively “closed the gap” to a large degree on about 70% of wages. I know that spending has been fueled by seemingly endless annual deficits, but that is a different topic for another day. For what they have spent, the on-field performance levels were rather good.
Non-Minnow Comparison
If I expand the data set further to include all domestic Cup competitions and European games starting in August (to exclude pseudo friendlies vs minnows), here is how the two teams compare for the season, excluding penalties:
Given the above data and Rangers’ progression into the final 16 in this season’s EL, I think it is fair to say that Gerrard’s system and management has been effective. As his system pertains specifically to the derby matches versus Celtic, I found the following data relating to xG from Open Play (courtesy of Wyscout) interesting:
In the 2 seasons prior to Gerrard’s arrival, Celtic’s attack versus Rangers was very balanced, and in a lethal way. This all changed upon Gerrard’s arrival, with the right side of our attack almost completely neutralized. Celtic’s mix of xG from Open Play versus set pieces also declined vs Gerrard’s system. It seems clear that Gerrard and his management team effectively formulated a system and tactics well equipped to level the playing field versus teams with superior players and greater financial resources.
Conclusion
While I could see how this analysis may be interpreted by some as a flattering treatise to our mortal enemy, I view it as an embrace of the 6th Century BC quote attributed to Lao Tzu, “There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” Celtic performed at an elite level domestically during the 2019-2020 season, and that should be celebrated. However, to deny the emerging threat of Rangers under a Gerrard-lead management team would be a mistake, in my opinion- particularly if the relative wage budget is similar or tighter than the 2019-2020 season. A return to “staunch” and end of the Gerrard era would be a welcome development as we look towards winning the 10.
Obviously, the league changed following the winter break and advanced stats do not score goals or directly determine league tables. A future piece will examine the post-break period, how a 13-point gap opened, and the importance of Neil Lennon’s switch in formation.
Excellent analysis !
We need to be less hubristic in our attitude to Gerrard’s Rangers* as over confidence could be our hardest opponent in the season to come .
Had we finished the season in the style we had shown since January ( and Rangers* continued their meltdown ) we would be entitled to dismiss their title ambitions . But that was last season – we need to focus fully on the next one .
We CANNOT assume that we only need to turn up to win the ‘TEN’ – hopefully , that will be repeatedly reinforced by our coaching team !
This is a good and cool analysis.
An alarming number of Celtic players can’t tackle. Some of Alan’s pieces have shown that a disproportionate amount of tackling is carried out by Brown. Generally, this is good enough, but in games against The Rangers he has often appeared to be overworked and overrun. This has prevented Celtic from controlling the midfield.
(The great Barcelona team of 2008-11 are celebrated for their skill and pressing, but their tackling was awesome – clean and effective.)
I was desperate to see us playing The Rangers with a 3-5-2. It’s not without risks, but it puts our best players in their best places, and our players should be better than theirs. It also should push them wide and I don’t think they have the personnel to play from there.
I think we need to take account of Morelos’ loss of form after the turn of the year. Frankly, he looked like he was on strike – overweight and uninterested. I think that contributed to our being able to open a substantial gap in a few games.
You’re certainly right, it was far too close.
“A future piece will examine the post-break period”
It would be useful to do this for previous years also, as it seems to be a feature of our play in this 9IAR.
In 2018-19 from a virtual standing start, we amassed an 8 point lead (8/9 straight wins, 27-1 goal difference) and had broken the opposition.
Similarly, during Deila’s tenure we seemed to motor home after relatively slow starts, with Aberdeen normally being close contenders in the 1st half of the season.
Obviously we’ve superior players, squad etc but we seem to manage the mid-season break and 2nd half of the season well in terms of rest & recuperation, remodelling formations, squad bonding/harmony etc, certainly in comparison with our main rivals.
Hello Cha – I think you mention one of the key variables which certainly applied this season, which is relative wage budgets and the impact of that factor relative to quality of squad depth. Ex-Gers, I would also speculate that Celtic’s players’ lifestyle regimes are more 24/7 modern athlete than most Scottish clubs.
Like Ali’s rope a dope vs Foreman, I think many of our opponents run out of gas by March. If I have time, I may try to turn what you suggest by comparing Celtic with the 2nd place team for each of the past 5 seasons. Thank you for reading and offering the suggestion.
Great article. This website is unique in Celtic cyberspace and really does produce some thought provoking topics of conversation!
I wonder if your article could have been titled ‘red flags’ or ‘warning signs’ because reading this in conjunction with reminiscing on some of this year’s performances and results produces (in my mind at least) cause for concern.
I think there is a false sense of security permeating the Celtic faithful just now and a misconception of our relative quality to Sevco’s. We ended up cantering away with the league while watching a near-imminent (if not already occurred) implosion Ibrox way. However, I think this change in events can mainly be attributed to relative squad depth and quality. While Sevco now have a first 11 more than capable of matching and bettering ours on any given day, their squad depth is woeful in many positions. From the beginning of 2020 this became apparent with loss of form and injuries causing havoc. Now, if Sevco increase their squad quality with a few purchases here and there (they have already started with Hagi), things could go right to the wire next year.
If people are not already, they should be concerned with our management team’s ability to perform in big games which (given the closing gap between us and Sevco) may determine the destination of next season’s title. This season we conceded 7 goals to Cluj and Copenhagen at home (where before a ball was kicked 0-0 would have seen us through), watched a meltdown in the second half in Copenhagen which our management team were helpless to rectify (contrast to the Copenhagen manager’s approach in that game), (in terms of performance) were humiliated in the League Cup final (when was the last time Sevco/Oldco did that to a Celtic team?) and, to top it off, failed to learn any lessons from the LC final and were defeated in our own backyard a couple of weeks later (even with the good fortune of a deflected goal and a penalty which i never thought we would be awarded in Scotland).
The big games we did win invariably were attributable to outstanding personal performances (Forster v Sevco and x2 Lazio and even Rennes at home). When these personal performances are not forthcoming, we suffer badly and lose. I did see some of Sevco’s European games this year and cannot think of any performance where they relied upon McGregor to the extent we have relied upon Forster.
Sevco are disciplined, well drilled, deploy a formation and game plan which they stick to (sum of their parts, not individuals- they won away to Braga with Edmundson at CB!); we on the other hand lack in all of these qualities and this is representative of a lack of quality within our management team.
I see that you intend to write an article on our switch to 3-5-2, however even there our management team were slow on the uptake and it was an enforced change. All our wingers were injured for the Partick cup game at the beginning of the year and so we used the new formation, but even then, as soon as the wingers were fit we reverted to a 4-2-3-1 for the home game against Ross County. If memory serves me, RC had multiple chances and it was a poor performance (if not result).
It was only after RC that 3-5-2 became established and again our management team dropped the ball by not utilising it (at least with the two striker option) in both Copenhagen games (save for when we were chasing the game).
I think next season will be determined by not what we do in the close season, but what Sevco do (on assumption we don’t sell our top players). Interesting times lie ahead.
Thanks for kind words, RS- I think generally we seem to be on the same analytical “wave length.” I’ve said to anyone who will listen that Forster and his huge performances was the difference between this being widely viewed as a successful season vs what would have been a failure. I’ve re-watched and re-analyzed all the data from all the EL group stage games and he was the clear differentiation in the 3 games you mentioned. Notably, Copenhagen scored on all 3 of their shots in the infamous 3-1 home defeat.
Rangers and Gerrard came to my mind as I watched The Last Dance documentary about Michael Jordan and the Bulls while in lock down- specifically their battles with the Pistons in the late 80’s prior to finally overcoming. I remember after the Cup final, many of our supporters were touting how our win would mentally “break them” given that they couldn’t even win despite clearly outplaying us.
The result? They walked right into Celtic Park and won. People can make fun of Gerrard never winning the league all they want, but his scream that day is that of a man with intense competitive drive, who given the importance to the club he manages, will approach this upcoming season like a man possessed. While it is surely heretical among many within our support, I think the objective data suggests that he’s been a significantly better manager than Lennon in big games against better opponents. Would Gerrard have played an injured and ineffective Davis in their 2 biggest games of the season?
I do think you are being a bit harsh regarding the shift to the 3-5-2. I referenced a report in a prior piece from someone who spoke to Lennon early after the break, and Lennon said that a main reason for the shift was to better optimize their best player (Edouard), which I actually advocated for in my first piece on January 17th. Also, there has been widespread reporting that they worked on it a lot in Dubai, and he had gone to it for the last 25 minutes in the Dec 29th derby loss and at Lazio.
Thanks as always for reading and taking the time to add your thoughtful comment – never disappoint!
I’ve got to agree with you, a bit at least, on most of your points. But I think you’re being a bit harsh.
We’ve got to take the rough (Copenhagen/Cluj) with the smooth (LeagueCup/Lazio)
Copenhagen I don’t think was down to tactics, we should have won that, on balance I think. Personally I blame Ajer for taking that freekick too quickly. I can’t remember the Cluj game too well but I’m sure there’s an article here about it, we would usually win that one too, anomalies.
No manager is infallible, mistakes will be made, games will be lost. Lennon, if my memory serves me right, has a very good record as our manager and I think he’ll continue to do well. Kennedy (O’Neill, Strachan, Deila, Rogers) and the framework are important as well.
The ibrokes team has improved and are not to be taken lightly but I think post xmas we saw who the better manager/motivator was. Stevie G may progress as a manager, but I think Lennon will too.
I like your honesty article writer.
blue bear.