Livingston have had success against Celtic at home in recent times. Martindale has adopted a very basic style of long ball, combative football, maximising the resources at his disposal as is wise.
Owen J Brown does a nice job describing how Livingston have adapted their approach this season.
The West Lothian side are bottom of the table. Although they have not scored a goal away, they have suffered two narrow 1-2 defeats at home to Aberdeen and Motherwell.
Starting the season in a 4-3-3 they have since switched to a 4-1-4-1 gaining their first point in the last outing vs Dundee.
So, is it new Celtic, new Livingston on the Tony Macaroni carpet?
Attack
It couldn’t be starker. This is the leagues top attack against the worst.
Livingston are averaging only 0.4 goals a game, slightly underperforming their xG of 0.75. Celtic are averaging 3.2 also slightly underperforming their xG of 3.75.
Celtic are getting over 3 times the shot on target and forcing the opposition keeper to make at least 5 saves compered to 1.6 from Livi attacks.
Creativity
Livingston aren’t quite the least creative side in the league, ranking 10th for Chances Created but averaging only 0.4 Big Chances per match compared to Celtic’s 2.8.
Stylistically we are polar opposites again. Celtic have the largest possession (73%) whilst Livingston play the longest balls (82) and even more so at home.
Celtic rank well with crosses, having the 2nd most successful in the league, whilst Livingston don’t go much in for cross balls.
Defence
Celtic are not quite ranked 1st across the defensive metrics which isn’t a surprise. Yet despite 2 defeats in 5 still have the lowest goals conceded and xG conceded.
Livingston’s defence is slightly better than their attack being 9th ranked versus 12th ranked. Despite reputations they have lost the most duels in the league, but from considerably greater volume than Celtic.
Danger Men
As seen from the attacking stats, this is the league’s worst attack.
Striker Anderson has the highest xG (0.84) and has 1 of their 2 goals so far, as well as an assist. With 0.26 xSC (expected scoring contribution = xG + xA) he leads that chart as well. For context, 11 Celtic players have a higher xSC per 90m than that.
Summary
Despite the randomness of elements of “Angeball”, and the huge issues faced with squad depth, this might not be the awkward tie it once was. If Celtic play as they did in Betis, and we know they will pay the same style, then they should have too much for the home team.
In attack, Celtic will need to be wary of the type of long balls that target a high line and a large gap back to Hart. This is further complicated with the odd bounce encountered on a dry artificial surface.
Nevertheless, I’m more confident now than before looking at the numbers. Nice numbers……