This season sees Video Assistant Referee (VAR) take its place in Scottish football as it struggles out of the 17th Century and into the 21st.
Those of you whom are erudite enough to be following this blog for some time will know we had our own virtual VAR in operation throughout the 2021/22 season.
The Yorkshire Whistler is a referee from South Yorkshire with only a passing interest in Scottish football (he is a Sheffield Wednesday supporter so arguably has no interest in football at all – boom-boom-tish).
He scrutinises the controversial calls from the games impacting the top two title challengers and provides a detailed and, crucially, unbiased, lamb-free assessment of what the correct decision should have been.
The impact of that call being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
Last season, had VAR been in operation (and operated by sentient, unbiased individuals) Celtic would have been 5.06 points better off and won the league much sooner. You can see the season summary here -> Honest Mistake Summary.
Astonishingly, 34% of referred calls were incorrect. Remember, these are big moments – goals allowed or disallowed, potential red cards. Scottish football clearly has a refereeing problem. Will VAR help? We don’t yet know given it will be the same individuals administering it.
In the meantime, we can only continue to shine a light.
A new season, a new raft of controversies – let’s go, as someone more famous that I once said.
30/07/22 Livingston vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | Don Robertson |
Game Minute | 54th |
Incident | Colak scores for TRFC |
Outcome | Offside against Colak |
Evidence | Livingston 1-2 Rangers | Rangers Complete Comeback On Opening Day! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 01:52 |
Incident 2
Referee | Don Robertson |
Game Minute | 81st |
Incident | The ball goes into the net off TRFC goalkeeper |
Outcome | Foul to TRFC |
Evidence | BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 30/07/2022
At 19:30 |
31/07/22 – Celtic vs Aberdeen
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 56th |
Incident | Hatate goes down under Stewarts sprawl |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 31/07/2022
At 10:09 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Hatate goes over in the penalty area following a rebound shot
Initial on field decision: No foul given Hatate reacts first to a parry from the Aberdeen keeper and as he is closed down, he then flicks the ball up before going down under perceived contact from the onrushing Aberdeen player. My initial thought in real time on this one was that the correct decision was made to not award a penalty. On watching the replay several times, I stand by this assessment. Hatate flicks the ball in front and appears to have no chance on doing anything with any follow up. As he jumps up, the Aberdeen defender appears to trip forwards and Hatate lands on him as he comes back down to the ground. There is minimal contact between the two players and I feel the Celtic forward is looking for the contact and penalty as a result. As we know football is a contact sport, and as players hear from me on a regular basis on the pitch, ‘not all contact is a foul’. Verdict: Correct decision to not award a penalty |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler. Back in fine explanatory form. That must have been some preseason running up and down Jenkin Road!
Well, a shock to start the season. The Rangers wronged! Could it be the big “levelling up” or are sample sizes too small to say?
This allied to the VAR call in Europe against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise in such short proximity will lead to questions in the House. Or snot-o-grams to BBC Scotland at the very least.
Dramatic start to the xPts table then:
The Rangers have 0.65 LESS points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes.
The top two are level on points after 1 game.
Robert says
?
Robert says
Sorry Alan, that was an emoji of two eyes looking overly surprised. The surprise being Rangers seem to be hard done by…for the first time ever!
Robert
Nick66 says
Good to have the Yorkshire Whistler back for another season. His comments on the Refs up here is always interesting to read. Also great to have CBN doing the stats on the players again. Looking forward to a season of analysis second to none.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks Nick
Justshatered says
Surely the points difference is only if they drop points because of a decision.
From this it looks as if The Rangers should gave 3.65 points from a match when in reality the maximum points you zan get from a game is 3.
At this rate the season will be over by the end of October!!
Martin says
I know that makes sense (and actually after 1 game it is true). But xG over the course of a season is quite a good measure/predictor of league table. By looking at the difference (again, over many games) it does help show how relatively hard done by each team is. It’s not perfect, but it’s fair.
Saulgoodman says
Take a day off
Peter Marshall says
Morning Alan
I hope you get YW to analyse the Robertson performance v Ross County, the unpunished brutality shown against Greg Taylor was unacceptable.
He has form….
Take care
Peter