Had someone suggested teenage Dutchman Frimpong would be Celtic’s primary right back this season you’d be right to have looked askance.
But here we are at the midterm report card stage after years of the ever reliable Lustig with an erstwhile journeyman Arab-Israeli, an unwanted loanee from Stoke City and the aforementioned kid battling it out for the logical number 2 shirt.
Here goes.
Defensive Performance
Primary aggregated metrics for defensive performance (defensive actions only) is Defensive Actions Success Rate (DASR%) and Possession Won (from defensive actions) %.
In terms on 90m equivalence, Frimpong is on 13.12, Elhamed 10.82 and Bauer on 7.16.
Essentially, having Frimpong in here is like comparing Forrest to a full back. He really doesn’t do a whole lot of defending. Frimpong wins 3.89 challenges and interceptions per 90m whilst Elhamed wins 9.15. It doesn’t feel like comparing apples with apples.
And a limitation of these metrics for full backs is that it will penalise the attacking ones. Tierney suffered by these measures as many of his challenges were in the final 3rd and he would lose them as a winger would.
So, I am suggesting cutting Frimpong a bit of slack here but the thought also occurs that, by the numbers, he really doesn’t look much like a defender.
Of the other two, you may be surprised to see Bauer actually comes out on top as the most defensively sound.
I come back to where I started. I have plotted “worst-case” Lustig – i.e. the regressing 18/19 model. His stats from last season would eclipse all the current incumbents by defensive metrics.
Looking at negative defensive performance – defensive errors.
Again, Bauer is the “safe” bet with the lowest error rate. He has also had 0 defensive saves which highlights my non statistical view of him that says he is a bit passive and isn’t involved much.
Elhamed goes over my personal threshold of more than 0.5 defensive errors per game with 0.55. He also has the highest rate of defensive saves. This kind of “last gasp” defending worries me however. I like calm and unobtrusive.
Frimpong’s numbers are in the middle and probably ok for a youngster.
The chart above helps us appreciate positioning and anticipation. It plots number of times possession is won back in Celtic’s defensive 3rd per 90m with Recoveries (receiving the ball after an opposition action or a lose ball).
By these measures we see the defensive instincts of Elhamed who has predominantly been a centre back in his career, and, frankly, I can understand why (!).
My predisposition towards Bauer of being a slightly passive player is further underlined as he posts the lowest values for both.
I would say Frimpong’s values, given the amount of time he spends at the other end of the park, are quite reasonable.
Summarising the defensive performances, Bauer would appear to be the safest option. Elhamed is performing like a centre back playing as a full back. And Frimpong is performing as a winger playing as a full back.
Are we further on from Lustig? Hmmm.
Ball Progression
The following chart plots Ball Progression from Dribbling (Pack Dribbles plus Progressive Runs) against Ball Progression from Passing – Pack Passes.
It neatly highlights the disparate styles of the three full backs at Celtic’s disposal.
Frimpong is a master at running with the ball, completing 11.66 dribbling ball progressions per 90m. In terms of Pack Passes however, he completes only 2.74 (Lustig completed over 8 at his peak).
Elhamed is no slouch with his speed and has a respectable 6.56 dribbling ball progressions runs per 90m. And he is the most creative passing with 6.56 Pack Passes per 90m, broadly similar to Lustig last season.
Bauer once again doesn’t contribute much by either metric.
Bauer however fairs better when considering overall Impect (ability to Pass, Dribble and Receive forward passes). He averages 49.75 per 90m compared to 59.36 from Frimpong but only 41.77 from Elhamed who doesn’t have the instincts to find space in forward areas (low Pack Receives).
Creativity
Measuring creativity using our old favourite Expected Assists (xA) per 90m throws up a not unexpected hierarchy:
Yes, we’d expect the ever-effervescent attacking threat of Frimpong to lead by this measure. But it isn’t by that much.
Who provides the most successful crosses? Bauer by a mile – 1.54 per 90m compared to Frimpong 0.08 and Elhamed 0.28.
Who provides the most completed passes into the Danger Zone? Bauer again with 1.12 (Elhamed 0.55 and Frimpong 0.76).
Where Bauer also leads is in final 3rd wastefulness. He loses the possession 6.29 times per 90m in the opposition 3rd whilst Frimpong with all his tricks and dribbles loses it 4.04 times and Elhamed with his pacy runs 4.8 times.
So, Bauer is the least productive by xA yet produces the most crosses and the most Danger Zone passes yet loses the ball the most in the final 3rd.
Crazy stuff.
Conclusion
Pick the bones out of that, Brian.
These articles are the funnest for me. Confirmation bias shot to hell, performance data all over the place.
Here’s my take.
Fundamentally Celtic have not, and will continue to struggle, to replace Lustig. Shoot me.
Frimpong shows immense promise as an attacking threat. His utility as a full back is questionable but he is young.
Elhamed, as I have always maintained, displays the attributes of a useful centre back and would fit well into a three where he could break at pace.
Bauer is actually the safest option of the three defensively but is far too passive attacking-wise for a club like Celtic, certainly domestically.
Where we go from here in this position, I am not sure. I suspect it is Frimpong’s to lose for now and I am sure he will get even better. Buckle up.
Duncan says
Excellent stuff as per usual Alan.
I think interns of Fullbacks/Wingbacks it is a case of horses for courses.
Elhamed is suited to defending against tougher opponents and most likely best played as a RCB in a 3 with the likes of Frimpong ahead as the Wingback.
Lenny favours 3-5-2 so I can see this becoming a thing.
In terms of Frimpong I am in agreement that he’s more a winger than a defender so as stated above could be deployed as a genuine Wingback with a genuine right sided defender covering him in behind.
As for Bauer he is the middle of the road man best served playing against average attacking sides who defend in numbers as his long throws could be used to greater advantage by launching balls into the box with greater accuracy than a traditional cross.
We have variety and the possibility of changing setups on the right side by changing the fullback.
If we could do likewise on the left it would make for a very interesting Celtic as is often been the case balance is hard to achieve as one side tends to be a bit better than the other.
On the tackling aspect I don’t think it should matter what side of the halfway line a tackle is made as a defender you really should be consistent no matter where you make it I feel.
I think Taylor is good defender as a fullback the problem he faces is can he be developed into an overlapping wingback?
On early showing I think he can but also on early showing I don’t think Bolingoli is a good footballer either defensively or offensively his distribution is awful at times but you cannot fault him for pure effort and the ability and will to keep making those runs.
Lenny mentioned that Frimpong could perhaps operation the Left side?
I think there could well be something in that as a Left Wingback.
No matter what happens we have definitely improved in the left back area in terms of depth and it was the case Lustig could no longer make the same runs he had been in previous Seasons.
James Dailey says
Excellent and insightful as always! I’ll share some additional info to compliment your exhaustive work/information. The one thing Frimpong offers that certainly “fits” with your framing and conclusions is some material xG from Open Play p90, which has been 0.19 in league play (all the following is SPFL only). By comparison, Bauer, Elhamed, Boli, and Taylor have 0, 0.06, 0.03 and 0.03. Hayes has 0.25 but almost all of that is from the two shots vs Rangers at Ibrox. To put that 0.19 into context, it is higher than McGregor (.17), Ntcham (.18) and Rogic (.15). In fact, the next highest Fullback in the SPFL on the season is 0.10, and 0.19 would tie him for 4th with Arfield compared to all SPFL midfielders. Obviously, the usual issues with sample sizes for some of these guys is applicable.
On the xPassing side, Frimpong has a score per 100 passes of 4.53% vs 0.20% for Bauer and 1.19% for Elhamed. All three are comparable for Key Passes from Open Play p90 at about 1.1.
Given where we are in the league and there being a title challenge, I also like to provide context vs Rangers. Tavernier has an xA from Open Play p90 of 0.16 and xG from Open Play p90 of 0.10, xPassing per 100 of 1.61%, and comparable Key Passes from Open Play p90 of 1.16. Tavernier’s xA p90 from Set Pieces is actually comparable to Christie’s at 0.15, but Rangers have done a far superior job at scoring off his deliveries. Set Pieces account for 24% of their overall xG vs 15.20% for Celtic. For further context, his 0.31 overall xA per 90 is higher than any Celtic player ex-Christie. Maybe Frimpong can learn to take corners? 🙂
James Dailey says
Wanted to add some thoughts on the analytical front after sharing the information. As the xPassing stats indicate, Frimpong is probably a “good passer”, with his 4.53 higher than both McGregor and Brown.
My guess is that some of his “poor” statistics such as Pack Passes is more due to system and player selection – i.e. he is supposed to have Brown on his side but Brown is often central or left and offers very little creative link up play on that side relative to what McGregor offers on the left. I’ll highlight again that Brown did not complete a single forward pass in the offensive right half of the pitch in the Rangers game! Also, Edouard seems to drift left far more than right, so at times like we saw against Rangers last month, Frimpong is often on an island of sorts where dribbling in space is the best option.
The last thing I’ll say is that I believe many people forget the lineup we played at the back for the Ibrox victory in September. Elhamed was at right back and Bitton was in for Ajer at left centre half. The data on Ajer is becoming pretty clear and supports anecdotal evidence – he is shite in the air. Bitton is much better and Elhamed is much bigger and more physical than Frimpong. Throw in Boli, who is much bigger than either Taylor or Hayes, and that back 4 was our best to play the tactics of that day – force long balls and then win/control headers. I advocated for a 3-6-1 (diamond 4 midfield) in advance of the December Rangers because of our imbalance of play in midfield in the 4-2-3-1 and the aerial issues we’ve had generally and the poor matchup vs Katic/Goldson on set plays. Given Lennon finally shifted to that after 70 minutes and our play picked up noticeably coincidentally, I hope we approach the March fixture with those issues in mind.
Jim says
Yeah Jerome Frimpong is definitely more of a Winger than a Right Back Domestically
@ CP we can play him against most teams cause we are mainly on the front footing so
to speak however against Sevco we need another taller player to cover that position
So for wee Jerome its horses for courses so point being we need more cover in the
right back position also another left sided Centre Back would be very useful along
with another Striker
The Silver Fhox says
Bauer RB, Elhamed CB and Frimpong RW.
Looks good to me.
Why don’t we try it? Just a suggestion.
Mark says
You really should get out more
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hi Mark thanks for taking the time to provide advice. Such prescient lifestyle coaching is most welcome on the blog.
James Murphy says
Why do Celtic get an systems expert ( his job to sit in sky box relaying any changes in the opposition play direct by phone to dugout) will work if we employ the best who can work hand in glove with Neil only the best will do,but keep stoum about it
George says
you talk some amount of pish on here about lustig, here was your last article about how ‘good’ Lustig was- ‘Elhamed has some way to go to be as effective as a 32-year-old declining Lustig’ He was literally our weak link for 3 seasons straight, constant errors in Europe, offering nothing on the wings when getting forward apart from Hampden. Lustig standing on the half way line for most of the game so he could have the legs to keep up with wingers would make his defensive stats look better, not to mention when he was getting done he would fake injuries. Now we have 3 arguably better right backs that can actually run and are somewhat reliable in Europe.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
George
Thanks for posting but there is no needs for the language.
Lustig did have poor moments and did lose mobility but I tend to analyse ALL aspects of performance that I can (lacking GPS and tracking data). I simply report it as it is. People tend to remember the mistakes and forget all the other stuff. Lustig provided balance to the left side where Tierney was virtually a winger. he tucked into a back 3. His long and shot passing was very good and underrated as I have shown repeatedly. If someone can outperform Lustig’s data ill be delighted!
Jim says
What are you talking about a load of pish my arse Mikel Lustig was
not as bad as you are trying to make him out George it’s obvious
you are not a Season Card holder so you did not see him play week
in & week out are you a cherry picker George who manages to get
tickets for away European matches or what? Mikel Lustig was with
Celtic for a few Seasons I will do research later to see what Manager
signed him put it this way he was with Celtic when Ronny Delia was
@ the helm along with Brendan Rodgers if he was that bad then
howcome those Managers did not try to off load him? & why did
Celtic offer him a year’s extension to his contract before he decided
to move on back to Norway so he can’t be that bad its obvious you
did not like Mikel Lustig however & as mentioned before he could
put in descent crosses & he could score an odd goal here & there
Aye pish, aye no right also if he was that bad then how come he got
chosen to play for Sweden? Pish LOL yeah everyone/those mentioned
must be all Blind as regards to Mikel Lustig’s ability to play footy
I Rest My Case.
George says
Don’t buy this ‘Lustig is a legend’ crap by certain fans and pretending like he set a standard for future right backs at the club. Sure he could put in 7/10 performances against poor teams and put in decent shifts at Hampden, but most wingers with pace were getting past him with ease and as we seen in his last 4 European campaigns, he was horrid. I mean there was f all wrong with him against PSG away and played 6/7 days later in the cup final, Neymar ripped him a new one 9 minutes on the clock and he couldn’t take the humiliation. RB Leipzig another were he almost singly handily cost us the game, their equaliser came from Lustig not simply marking his player, and we went up field and scored from kick off, about 5 minutes he was at it again- luckily the Leipzig player somehow hit the post! Kent another moment where he threw in the towel…
I always love the reply that he played with Sweden so that somehow must make him a good player, Filip Helander gets a game for them….. And if you want to go on and say ‘yes and he played at the World Cup as well’, then that must mean you appreciate what a wonderful player Efe Ambrose was. Rodgers clearly knew he was the main target for opposition teams, hence why he brought in Janko, Gamboa, Toljan, Ralston to replace him, although Lee Congertons recruitment failed at it. John McGinn even said Lennon was telling his Hibs team to go for him, so at least our current manager has eyes because if not we would still have him here limping about getting roasted by every winger in the league.
I’ll admit he was good for the first 3 seasons at the club (Matthews was better mind but the club wanted to make a quick buck on the demand for him) but his performances declined every season after. I take it you don’t go to much matches yourself, considering half the stadium was whistling even booing going on when he had the ball in his last season because of how slow he was releasing the ball. Celtic by numbers- you are correct, his long passing was 100% one of his strengths, although counting short pass completion rates are pretty invalid when most balls are going backwards.
Scottyk says
Hello, always like to read your analysis. I do feel however Elhamed and Jullien link better than the other two right backs and perhaps some of the defensive errors lately could have been caused due to Jullien trying to compensate for Frimpongs lack of experience. I feel that the back four was looking very solid until untimely injuries to the RB and LB positions. Hail Hail…
Jim says
Mikael Lustig signed from Rosenberg & played his first match for Celtic on
the 1st of January 2012 So therefore he was signed by Neil Lennon in his
first Managerial spell with the Bhoys there so he was at our Club for eight
years I know pish players normally get a chance to stick around @ footy
clubs for eight years aye are you kidding LOL laters George.
Jim says
Pish players yeah Taxi for Bollingoli he is even worse than Tebily remember
him although Tebily could pass the ball to one of our players Bollingoli what
a joke against Sevco (29/12/19) he hardly passed the ball to one of our
players even Johnny Hayes & Greg Taylor can do a better job in Bollingoli
position I’m afraid young chap it’s Taxi for you some poster on CQN said
he was on holiday & he heard two Belgium chaps laughing @ him when he
mentioned that Celtic had signed Bollingoli to which the Belgium chaps
said in laughable tone Bollingoli yes good luck with him LOL
Jim says
The Silver Fhox says
9th January 2020 at 14:21
Bauer RB, Elhamed CB and Frimpong RW.
Looks good to me.
Why don’t we try it? Just a suggestion.
Not a bad suggestion Silve Bhox although I would not
play that line-up against Sevco wee Jerome Frimpong
is too short @ set pieces against us I would also add &
keep Chris Jullien in our Defence we could also try
going a three-five-two set up especially when playing
@ CP Martin O’Neill used 3-5-2 in his time in the Hot
Seat & on numerous occasions it produced good
positive results go-on-the-Bhoys. 🙂 🙂
Jim says
George of the Jungle & half the Stadium was booing every time Mikael Lustig
received the ball @ CP where is that CP George in your Head cause I never
heard any boos @ CP & I’m a Season Card Holder who goes to every home
match for the past twenty years & it would have been more if I was living in
Coldland before then go-on-the-bhoys & I never said Mikael Lustig was a
Club Legend however Wee Henke was what a player Henke was in his Days.
Mikael Lustig was not as bad as an addition to the playing staff @ Celtic as
you are trying to make him out to be so I would not begrudge a player who
played for our Club for over eight years yes I admit he was slower in his
final two years of his playing time with us although as previously mentioned
by myself he was not a bad crosser of the ball & he could score an odd goal
here & there I also liked tall Effe Ambrose he was a nice chap & very friendly
towards our next Generation of Supporters I also liked the Back Flips he
did in-fact he would have probably been a better Gymnastic Performer than
a footballer & he did intend to make big mistakes particularly in High Profile
Matches however he was not a bad fellow & I will get behind any fellow who
pulls on the Bhoys Shirt as for remarks about & oh yeah John I Want The
Bigger Wage Packet McGinn saying aye & when wee played my so called
beloved Club @ Easter Road we use to extract the proverbale out of Mikael
Lustig instructed by wee Lenny when he was there however I did not see
them extract the above @ CP infact probably one has to go back to the
early Fifties (50’s) when Hibs had there so called famous five when they
played us off the park @ CP apart from then no chance I remember a
player by the name of John Deans (Wee Dixie) slapping two hatrics past
Hibs in seprate Cup Finals & the same Club taking around a Century to
eventually win the Scottish Cup with the Sevco Zombies going nuts @
the end of said match because of the pitch invasion which was understandable
the pitch invasion I’m referring to not the bigoted zombie nuts going mad
however it does not take much for Scotlands Shame to go mad & the pitch
invasion by the Hibs fans was like holding up a red flag to a bull to the
Mad Zombies which is not surprising as for remarks about Divar Naymar
ripping Mikael Lustig aye taking the piss yeah we all know yeah that other
wee Brazillian Cheat is a very good player however Naymar should cut out
the cheating in his play I remember Broony hardly touched him & he was
rolling around like he had been hit by a Bus what a numpty & P Owned By
Rich Oil Arabs SG have invested Billions into PSG & there Players are on
over the top (Millions of £’s) wage packets the way I realistically view
playing in the CL as bonus matches for our Club I don’t expect to get
positive results in the CL competition due to the amount of money that’s
involved in football nowadays & also until we get into a better & more
fairer financial playing field that is a no brainer George so if we get gubbed
in those matches so what its not the end of the World if we can get every
now & then positive result in the CL then so be it (good) however I don’t
take it too heart also here is a wee food for thought fact probaly you are
aware that when you consider all the domestic success Brendan Rodgers
had with us his European record was not as good as wee Lenny infact
even Gordon Strachan had a better European Record than Brendan
Rodgers & remember George the words in Hail-Hail we don’t care if
we Win-Lose-Or Draw what the Hell do we care for we only know
that the Glasgow Celtic Will Be There (Go-On-The-Bhoys) Laters 🙂 🙂
Jim says
Yeah & I forgot to add Martin O’neill’s European Record as well
Than Brendan Rodgers
Jim says
As for Jock Stein well Jock’s record was & is still the best.
Rolling Stone says
Bit late to the party on this one.
Is there not an issue with the relatively small sample size for both Bauer and Elhamed relative to 18/19 Lustig? I accept Frimpong plays more like a winger so I’m excluding him from the discussion.
Are the stats not further skewed by the type of games Bauer and Elhamed have started/played in? For example, Elhamed has 13 appearances to his name this year. However, 6 of those have been in European competition (qualifying/groups). You would expect that his defensive stats would be more strained against that level of opposition as opposed to Hamilton at home; he has only played 4 SPFL games, so there is not even the opportunity for the performances to ‘net off’.
A similar issue exists for Bauer. Nine appearances of which 3 have been in Europe, including the Cluj away game in which we were uncompetitive due to playing a different first 11.
Does the above not cast doubt on the methodology which leads to the conclusion that Lustig is, statistically, our best RB of the last two seasons?
p.s. I think this is a fantastic site and very insightful.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
You are totally correct. Which is why I am always reassessing these topics. Thanks for the comments