Productivity Gaps

I wrote yesterday on the overall team expected goals differential and how it is trending at +2 xG per game, therefore set up well for the end of the season.

What of this group of players and their own expected scoring contributions (xSC) versus last season?

A reminder: scoring contribution is goals + assists. Therefore, xSC is xG + xA per 90 minutes.

Full Back

Interestingly both fullbacks Alistair Johnston and Greg Taylor have elevated xSC compared to last season. Johnston’s has risen from 0.24 to 0.3 and Taylors from 0.24 to 0.29.

Both are creating more chances I suspect because of them playing more “traditional” full-back roles at times rather than inverting as much and forming a second line of defence with Callum McGregor.

However, the burden of volume for these metrics falls further forward.

Midfield

Here is the comparison for the central midfielders.

Matt O’Riley has effectively replaced some chance creation for a greater goal threat to net out at a slightly higher xSC.

McGregor’s overall xSC is declining as it has been for several years and we can expect that to continue with age.

Paolo Bernardo is slightly behind in replacing Reo Hatate’s contribution during his injury travails. Note that Hatate’s xSC contribution was markedly lower than the other central midfielders which I know will come as a shock to some.

David Turnbull has filled the void of Hatate’s injury and Aaron Mooy’s retirement to some extent, boosted by some penalty efforts. However, he does not appear to be in the long-term plans as his contract winds down.

The gap left by Mooy’s absence is something I have mentioned often and in this regard is marked. He also took penalties which boosted his xG. But Celtic are not yet carrying the threat from the centre of the park of last season especially if Turnbull is not a part of the midfield three.

Therefore, we need to hope Hatate and Bernardo can up their expected threat to the levels of Mooy and Hatate last season.

Wingers

The comparison for the wingers tells a similar story.

Palma is doing a good job matching the output of Jota but we must consider that on an “open play” basis, Jota would be ahead given much of Palma’s xSC comes from penalties and corner taking.

Daizen Maeda’s xSC is down on last season and he seems less effective starting from the right than he did cutting in from the left wing.

Celtic have missed the prodigious number generation of Liel Abada and we can but hope that the 22-year-old returns to that form for the second half of the season.

Sead Haksabanovic played the role of the productive substitute well last season and his off-the-bench contributions have not been replicated in the current squad.

Finally, as discussed many times, Yang Hyun-jun’s contribution so far is well short of what is needed at this level.

The wing area has exercised much of my attention this season, and this provides a snapshot of why. Palma is certainly promising but Celtic needs Abada to return to prior form and need more depth of contribution from others.

Strikers

The drop off in Kyogo Furuhashi’s xSC has been noticeable despite his penchant for big derby-winning goals. He has not always had the almost constant smile on his face we are accustomed to. A style of play tweak that has seen longer direct passes and more aerial box crosses has not yet got the best out of his excellent off-ball movement.

Under Postecoglou the attacking patterns seemed designed to maximise the effectiveness of the Japanese striker. Many moves ended with short, flat passes across the 6-yard box for his predatory instincts and ability to get the necessary half-yard start on defenders to be exploited.

As a backup, Oh Hyeon-gyu has been an able replacement for Giorgos Giakoumakis. Although many compare directly, the Greek striker is six years more experienced than the young South Korean. Despite being equally ungainly at times, the ex-Suwon Bluewings forward brings unpredictability but consistent productivity to the front line and is worth persisting with.

Summary

Although the team overall is showing signs of getting into the level of cohesion necessary to win the league, the individual parts of the side continue to be a work in progress as regards productivity in the final third.

Specifically, the depth off the bench is not as consistent as it was last season. And key positions are a concern. Celtic needs to get more out of the midfield “8” position and requires a right-wing solution that will help share the attacking load.

Tactical tweaks are also necessary to get the best out of Furuhashi.

Celtic’s attacking prowess in Scottish football last season was exceptional so it is a tough benchmark to reach.