I wrote yesterday on the overall team expected goals differential and how it is trending at +2 xG per game, therefore set up well for the end of the season. What of this group of players and their own expected scoring contributions (xSC) versus last season? A reminder: scoring contribution is goals + assists. Therefore, … [continue reading]
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What To Expect
Despite defeat at St Mirren, those that produce Expected Points models are still indicating Celtic have an expected lead over their opponents. @TheGersReport takes the underlying performance data and projects the season forwards on the basis that results will track to that data. His model has Celtic winning the league by 24 points! Note this … [continue reading]
Who Has Striking Edge In Title Race?
As the title race reaches the final laps, let’s look at the comparative creative and goal threat across the squads to see who may have the firepower to secure the crown. I have used Opta data for this analysis and it relates only the SPFL Premier matches. The method will be to compare each position … [continue reading]
Not As Expected
I still maintain the biggest issue Celtic have faced this season is not finishing off their chances. There are undoubtedly many concerns for Postecoglou to address: A settled defence First choice left back Curing the hamstring epidemic How to operate a midfield with no natural “8”s The never-ending striker shortage Lack of aerial presence in … [continue reading]
The Edouard Dependency
Plotting Expected Goals and Expected Assists for midfielders and forwards gives us a view on not just goal threat but creativity too. The chart below is xG and xA per 90m in all competitions for Celtic. Only includes players with > 450 minutes. For me, the main take-aways are: Reinforces how vital Edouard is. With … [continue reading]
Christie The Creative Spark
Celtic are creating slightly more chances than last season. I take an early season look at Expected and Actual Assists. Assists / Expected Assists Christie and Forrest lead the way with 6 assists each. Edouard and Johnston have 5 and Ntcham 4 This suggests that Lennon’s Celtic are an equal creative threat from all of … [continue reading]
Someone Due A Doing?
To assess whether players have improved year on year, I compare their Expected Scoring Contributions (xSC) (Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA)) over the last two seasons. xSC Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is the aggregation of xG and xA. Here is the change in the is combined metric over the last two seasons for … [continue reading]
The Sharp End
Scoring Contribution gets to the heart of footballing productivity. It combines goals and assists, or in this case Expected Goals and Assists – the speed boat you could have won! xNPG is Expected Non-Penalty Goals. Why? Because the chances of scoring a penalty are the same irrespective of the taker. It is a separate measurable … [continue reading]
Attacking Leaders for the Cup Final
Approaching the Scottish Cup Final, a refresh of the leaders in the Expected Goals and Assists map. Whatever you might think of Burke and Weah, there is no denying they provided attacking threat. Weah has the highest Expected Goals (xG) in the squad. Burke is a good all-rounder with a higher overall threat than Sinclair, … [continue reading]
Passing Into The Danger Zone
Danger Zone (DZ) Passes are those completed into the area most likely to yield a goal. The DZ is the width of the 6 yard box and the depth of the 18 yard box. Shots taken from here are more likely to result in goals by Expected Goals (xG) models. These types of passes are … [continue reading]