Postecoglou’s start to Celtic management has the classic 3 Act narrative arc, when seen through the prism of xG.
If that sentence doesn’t have you reaching for your skinny latte or Almond infused IPA, it’s the best I’ve got.
Oi! – Come back!
xG Differential
This plots a 6-game rolling average of xG Differential (xG for – xG against) covering all fixtures.
After a half-cooked start against Midtjylland with barely a team, “Angeball” exploded into life with 5+ xG performances against Dundee, Hearts and St Mirren. We’ll conquer the world, right?
Reality bit in Black September as: tough European nights kicked in; Derby defeat to an archly pragmatic opponent; Postecoglou’s first entanglement with the mind of Martindale; refereeing blight impacted at home to Dundee United; and injury to the talisman – Furuhashi missed virtually all of that month.
We were back to earth with a bump. Euphoria spiked. Was the manager too set on Plan A? When would the new players gel? How long can we get away playing Ralston, Montgomery and Soro?
This was the moment to doubt, the time Postecoglou claimed he always expected.
The injury list grew but the results improved. The xG differential reflects this and from a low of defeat at Livingston and a chastening by Bayer Leverkusen at home, it has been 17 wins, 2 draws and an unfortunate loss in the return in Germany in 20 games.
All this despite 227 match days being lost to injury – an average of 6 squad members missing every game. Implementing a new style isn’t easy and neither is it for young men to settle into a new culture, climate, city in the short term.
But the performance fundamentals are strong.
The xG Differential is growing steadily wider.
Are you ready for take-off?
Iain in Alberta says
Yes! Seat belt fastened with hazy grapefruit IPA in hand!
An average of 6 players missing per game is huge and the team has coped well. Thanks for your hard work on all this.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Iain – thanks and Grapefruit is my favourite too!
If i observe it seems a little early for you though, i may sound like your mother!
thanks as awlays
Iain in Alberta says
Grapefruit IPA – not just a breakfast drink!
James Barr says
That`s the kind of article I like. For a variety of historic and social reasons, many Celtic supporters are made to feel inferior in Scotland. The more articles we have like this from ALL Blogs, the more confident Celtic supporters will grow and I believe that will flow from the terraces and into the minds of the players.
Good man.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks Jim
It’s a two way street – last season there were lots of honest (some would negative!) articles. I’ll report the data as it is.
The Cha says
Only 2 draws in the past 14 league games (40 out of a possible 42 points) is very good form but hasn’t impacted on the lead, which has varied between 4 and 6 points in this period.
Unless either of our form crashes (I remain hopelessly optimistic that theirs will after dropping points at Pittodrie) then the 3 games against themuns will prove crucial.
After the euphoria of the early part of the week, a few negatives have crept in in the latter part; Kyogo prolonged injury, Maeda call-up, McGregor injury and a frustrating performance against Alloa, including obligatory poor aerial goal let in (something they’ll undoubtedly try to expolit).