14We debated on the most recent Huddle Breakdown (please subscribe) regarding centre-backs and aerial duels and how helpful or not the available data is.
This was prompted by the performances of Liam Scales and Stephen Welsh in the Scottish Cup match versus Livingston. The opponents, as is typical in Scotland, had the proverbial “big lad” up front (and indeed seemed to have prepared for a basketball match as opposed to association football), and in totality Scales “won” 11 out of 18 aerial duels and Welsh only two from five.
The question is whether “winning” a duel can irrevocably be labelled a “good” thing” or whether there is far more nuanced. You can probably guess the Answer.
When tagging aerial duels I record one of four outcomes.
- Player wins the duel and his team gains possession;
- Player wins the duel but the opponent gains possession;
- Player loses the duel but his team gains possession; or
- Player loses the duel and the opponent gains possession.
Duel Win %
For centre backs with data recorded against them and having a total of more than 900 minutes, here is the very simple percentage of category 1 and 2 above as a ratio of the total number of aerial duels.
The average is 78% duel success as regards who “wins” the header.
Both Scales and Welsh fall below that average joined only by the six-foot-three Jack Hendry.
Good ol’ Shane Duffy was the classic case of recruiting for a specific skillset (“aerial dominance”) without considering the holistic profile of the player (used to a low block; used to “defending” as opposed to possession dominance; not used to a high line; not used to being protected by an ageing pivot; not used to covering attacking fullbacks).
By my goodness could he win a header!
Filip Benkovic remains a big regret.
And Carl Starfelt has a slightly better duel win percentage than Cameron Carter-Vickers! Who knew?
So, this tells us about whose noggin connects primarily with the ball in the duel.
If we focus on “what happened next” we get a slightly different perspective.
Dominant Duel Win %
Let’s be radical and invent a new data label. Let’s call those aerial duels where both the hooped noggin prevails AND the ball ends up in Celtic’s possession as a Dominant Aerial Win.
Here are the same players with their “win” percentages on this basis.
The average of win/wins is only 35 percent.
Look at Starfelt – his dominant win percentage is a mere 21 percent, alongside the hapless Hendry. Meaning that only 21 percent of aerial duels did Starfelt win the header and Celtic got possession. Welsh remains below average.
Scales manages to exceed average and surprisingly match Christopher Jullien for dominant win percentage.
However, none other than Carter-Vickers gets over the 40 percent threshold for dominant aerial wins.
Why Does This Matter?
Scottish football is dominated by long ball play, and nearly all sides have an aerial combative striker or two.
Celtic are usually the smaller of the teams physically, and therefore sides play for set-piece opportunities whether that be long throws of corners and free kicks. Loading the ball into the box and fighting for the ball in the air neutralises most technical aspects of the game other than anticipation, jumping, strength and timing. All cheaper attributes to recruit for over ball control, technique, vision and other such frippery.
Centre-back duel success is important as regards how many of these opportunities the opponent gets. If your centre-back is “dominant” then those opportunities are reduced.
My point about Scales in particular is that yes he “wins” a fair share of aerial duels but often the next action is an opposition throw or corner or it is otherwise random where the ball ends up. This is the type of chaotic football a possession-dominant team like Celtic should seek to minimise.
Welsh simply isn’t suited to Scottish football from this perceptive. The mooted move to Italy from a couple of seasons ago would make perfect sense for his strengths.
This view also allows me to better articulate some of my reservations about Starfelt. Again, yes he “wins” most aerial duels but it isn’t clean, it did not lead to control. It leads to chaos and often opposition possession. Scales is similar.
We continue to search for a similarly dominant centre-back to partner Carter-Vickers.
Where dominant means wins the duels AND maintains possession for Celtic.
Duncan says
We could conceivably improve on all of our central defenders (and I include the now injury prone Carter Vickers in that ) by spending more on proven quality.
That’s the main problem as always at Celtic.
Jack Hendry like Sviatchenko has gone on to improve at other Clubs and I would take him back no problem ahead of the likes Welsh ,Nawrocki and Lagerbielke.
I actually think Welsh would be better suited slotting into the advanced No6 role at Celtic as he is comfortable on the ball ,is aggressive without being dirty in the challenge and passes it well.
He’s also fully aware of the dangers directly in front of him as a natural CB but as has been pointed out he’s a bit on the short side for the modern game.
Put it this way if he’s struggled as a CB in Scotland he would definitely be found out in Italy week in week out.
Scales for me would be better suited to a back 3 as the left sides CB in that 3 as a natural Left Back who has been since converted into a CB.
Charlie Mulgrew previously was an example of how a player like him can be best utilised in this system as it allow the Wingback to get forward with the added cover of a Left sided CB who knows the ins and outs of a left backs defensive role.
I can only see Scales improve as he develops as a CB as he’s already proven in the higher level in the CL he can defend to high standard when asked.
Against Lazio for example he was the standout defender covering for Taylor numerous times as he was caught the wrong side of the ball on the counter.
I would like to see an upgrade on Carter Vickers come in and perhaps a change to a back 3 to give us more flexibility in Europe next Season.
Perhaps a player with height ,presence,pace and good technical ability would Bering the best out of the rest.
I always felt Starfelt was a liability in possession,panick passed when put under pressure and got too close to attackers which resulted in him giving cheap fouls away or getting done for pace on the turn.
I also think having a consistent back 4 is also going to help defenders which unfortunately for Scales this Season hasn’t been the case.
Would love to know how many changes to the backline he and Hart have had to cope with this Season Alan ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks – some interesting thoughts – i’m not convinced by back three – means you essentially attack with 7 not 8 so seems an odd config for a dominant team plus you will generally have 3 marking 1
re changes – yes i’ve referenced that often in Celtic Way articles – 6 diff partnerships and it is rare both complete 90m
Duncan says
With a back 3 you have the option of one stepping out and covering as a No6 as the midfield inevitably pushes up.
This would give McGregor added security and also give him more scope to push forward a bit more rather than the very deep defensive role he’s been forced to play under Rodgers this Season.
Also with deploying wingbacks there is no need for wingers as this then allows you to introduce either another Striker and or a proper No10 supporting two strikers as we seen with Commons ,Stokes and Hooper in this system.
The width came from the overlapping wingbacks.
At the moment we have 2 CB’s neither of which are top drawer ,wingers who are underperforming and a striker in Kyogo who’s been forced to drop deeper and deeper because the role of McGregor from deep has changed from deep lying playmaker to a traditional 6 who’s not affecting either the game or tempo anywhere near as much as he was under the previous Manager.
That extra CB gives you scope to alter things tactically in game depending on what the opposing teams game plan is be it hitting on the counter with balls over the top of the FB’s (as we’ve seen in Europe especially with Taylor) or pressing high and squeezing what little room we have at the back even more.
The wingbacks can drop back in creating a 5 in defence or pushing up to create the width on the overlap to feed the extra Strikers in the box.
Against a low block you push both up and the extra CB as the 6 and this leaves you still two CB’s covering the counter.
My argument is if you’re suffering from defensive frailties in Central Defence then change shape and add that extra cover.
At this point we should have more than one system in place than 4-3-3 with the players we have,Scales being a natural left back as a left sided CB now gives us that flexibility as Mulgrew did under Lenny.
The issues this season have been primarily caused by the tactical shift to Brendans style not by a poor window.
He has no plan B which is shocking for a Manager rated as highly tactically as some seem to suggest.
McGregors influence has been shackled and as a result Kyogos effectiveness at the sharp end has been blunted with him dropping so deep.
It’s been screaming out for a system change all Season as the football has been average to dire at times despite the results,
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Duncan – thanks for taking the time with such a detailed reply. I’d agree that if Celtic played a back 3 with Johnston RCB, CCV centre and Scales LCB that would place all three in their optimal positions. None are natural 6 style playmakers though. I’d prefer a 4-4-2 diamond myself which i believe solves for the same problems you outline.
As regards Rodgers and tactical flexibility i am surprised we have not see more. When we had Dominic Wells on pre season on the Huddle Breakdown the main takeaway was the flexibility Rodgers had shown versus the top team in the EPL and in Europe. I was looking forwards to more innovation to be honest. Thanks again.
SteveNaive says
Scales in a back three loses Taylor’s positives in the inverted role he actually plays well.
In a game, he can be in possession in his full back area, progress it and join in the midfield and is sometimes the furthest forward in the same move.
Little wonder he can be caught wrong side.
His arial duels are most often lost ( he’s giving away many inches ) but he competes and it mainly goes out for a throw.
On the occasions it doesn’t we recover enough.
On the rare occasions it leads to a goal, he’s deemed hopeless.
Now, speaking of chaos, let’s examine a hoofed clearance into out half late in the game.
Ryan M says
Scales’ Dominant Aerial Win % is surprisingly decent, not great but I’m sure it’s not as bad as you thought.
But maybe it’s more down to how much % goes to the opposition as opposed to going out of play or no man’s land.
Another metric which I guess would be more difficult to judge would be on distance achieved on cleaning headers. I don’t mind my centre back winning a header and it going to the opposition on the half way line. But winning the duel just inside the box and it falling to the opposition in the D is another matter!
At this point are Lagerbielke and Kobyashi not even worth consideration?
The former I don’t think has been bad, I know he has his flaws in short passing and pace but until we get other players is there anything to say he is any worse than what we have?
Nawrocki for me has lots of good attributes but I can’t get away (eye test) that he’s too easily bullied.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Neither have enough minutes to be included
take your point about where ball lands – limit to what can be collected practically
ddroid says
Really draws out the question, why do we still not have a CL standard Defensive Coach who can develop these attributes in players?