The latest The Huddle Breakdown podcast (available on Spreaker, Spotify, iTunes and Youtube) is dedicated to Scott Brown. We have been highlighting his natural age decline in performance for some time (2 years in my case) and the impacts this has on the team.
This isn’t a Brown bashing session. The captain has won a trophy every 27 appearances for Celtic and will always be considered a true great, and rightly so. But Celtic’s failure to plan for a reduced role and then life without their key defensive central midfielder has been negligent. Having highlighted it for 2 years (and please read “Brown: Growing Old Gracefully” as there is nothing I am saying today I did not say in that article) we felt the need to dedicate time to spell out the numbers behind what can be a divisive opinion on such a fan favourite.
This article, therefore, supplements the podcast aforementioned and should be read in conjunction.
Brown’s role is primarily a defensive one shielding in front of the back three/four. His overall Defensive Action Success Rate has stood up well over time:
The problem is the volume of activity driving that % is down on both the nominator and denominator.
If you consider the “Green” trends – i.e. those with positive variance over 4 seasons they are all indicative of less activity – less challenges lost, less fouls committed.
Those metrics with upwards trends are Missed Tackles and number of times Packed. Both proxies for speed, anticipation, reduced mobility and space coverage.
We went onto discuss the collateral damage caused by having a central midfielder with reducing productivity:
- Defensive volume has decreased for Brown but the overall work load for Celtic hasn’t changed – no one would argue Celtic have become more defensively robust in the last year. So that workload has to be picked up by someone.
- Natural decrease in dynamism of movement – anticipation, speed, action – very noticeable against better opposition. Basically, the problem is worse the better the opposition. I invite you to watch back the European games this season and see where Brown was simply unable to move his body quickly enough to avert danger in central areas.
- Natural age decline means weaknesses are exacerbated – ball chasing; recovery speed from rashness or poor positioning. The impacts are all heightened.
- Team risks increase due to toxic combinations. Duffy has similar characteristics – isn’t quick; tends to follow the ball and leave space; can be rash. James explained how when Duffy and Brown play together Celtics xG differential for and against plummets. The full back configuration of Frimpong and Laxalt, whilst entertaining and lively, was positionally ill disciplined and required preternatural skills of anticipation to predict where danger would arise. A 35-year-old DMC would not give you that.
- Impact on others – specifically McGregor having to cover in a 4231 – meaning a declining Brown and an ineffective McGregor reduces 1/3 of attacking creativity across the team. When Brown plays with McGregor in a 4231, McGregor’s xA reduces by 32% and his xG by 36%.
This should not be earth shattering. It is a natural consequence of age decline and decreasing ability for dynamic movement.
What is unacceptable to me is the club’s continuing unwillingness or inability to properly succession plan. Soro, although young, had over 100 games’ experience in four different countries – why did it take so long to try him? Kouassi was barely played. Bitton is a natural DMC but we pursued a flawed policy of repurposing him into a central defender with often disastrous results. Surely this role warranted significant investment?
Scott Brown played more matches in each of his 30+ age seasons than in any between 24-27. Arguably he peaked in 17/18 when Rodgers had him fulfil a limited and simplified role. That was four seasons ago and now Lennon is expecting him to press and get the ball forward quickly.
No harm to Brown, a genuine Celtic great. But time waits for no player, even Messi as we all saw versus PSG on Tuesday.
Tony_67 says
This is genuinely broken record stuff. Same rhetoric with every passing week. Yourself and Juco James have been banging this drum for weeks and weeks, we’ve heard it, move on, it’s getting boring.
The whole “my MOTM” and “my first good” goes to Scott Brown, then spend the next 10 paragraphs plotting his decline statistics is desperate stuff. If he’s getting the man of the match and playing well why does it matter if he’s not performing to the same level as he was? He was still the best player on the park. What about the players who didn’t get MOTM? guys that can’t outperform a past his best Scott Brown.
Soro played again V Aberdeen and as much as there seems to be a player there he was very wasteful in possession and still needs time to become our first team starter. The overall performance was poor V Aberdeen, as has been the case on many occasions this season but continually pinpointing the MOTM or good performer as the culprit is absurd.
Rather than continually criticising it may be worthwhile looking at how he’s had to adapt his game to still be getting a game age also fairly regularly picking up the MOTM award.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I agree with you. it frustrates me we have to revisit this again. But with Brown being selected over Soro once his ban was served the main criticisms remain extant – and they are aimed at Lennon and the management team NOT Brown. James spent a long time outlining how well Rodgers managed Brown’s role to get the best out of him to your point. Lennon using his as a hard pressing 6 makes no sense at all – again that’s on Lennon not Brown.
jucojames says
Hello Tony- figured I’d respond since I don’t think it is fair to Alan to have to respond regarding my Twitter feed, which he has no control over.
I’ve explained in the past that the MOTM I do is for relative individual performance levels within the context of the performance analysis I do for games. That is distinct from traditional MOTM. No individual player can control what decisions a manager makes, or what other players do. Me pointing out that Brown has performed well relative to others and/or within the role/position he is playing is separate than assessing whether his selection or the role are wise.
It is like a basketball game early in Michael Jordan’s career where he scored 60 points and the Bulls lost. Him shooting less and relying more on his teammates coincided with the Bulls winning more…but scoring 60 points was a big individual performance.
I am incredibly bored of the topic and would love to never have to revisit ever again. I also am sick of ridiculous “debates” like wearing masks. But I also want an accurate history of this season to be “recorded” and the club and others seem hell bent on writing fiction.
Jim says
Lets be honest here, everyone. This Season, has been a very poor Season compared to past Seasons,
that’s for sure, too many draws, & avoidable defeats, & not enough positive results.
The players are in a careless mind set, where they have lost the hunger for success.
As Jock Stein once said, when they cross that playing field line, they have to be in a mind set, of
wanting bring about positive results, & that includes all of the players @ our Club.
If accepting failure is in there mind set, then changes have to be made asap, simple as that.
& this includes everyone, the recruitment setup, the Manager & Back Room Staff Setup, & also
a clear out of players who do not want to be @ our Club, or the ones who are not pulling their
weight. Broony will be 36 years of age in June 2021, he offers a bit of dig within our midfield,
& can score the odd important goal here & there. However, he tends to pick up silly bookings
here & there, & is on the Referee’s bookings match bonus watch list. What we need in midfield,
is players who can provide a bit of dig, & who can hold down the midfield, & a future playmaker
would not go a miss either. Players like wee Lubo the magician, or remember the Mystro Paul
McStay, or in other words players who can make a very positive contribution to our style of
play. Also, we need to seriously address or regular & solid Goalkeeper situation, along with
all our Defence. We have conceded too many soft goals this Season, our Sieve/Defence, is a
complete shambles @ present, & it’s an ongoing problem needs to be addressed, asap.
All well organised Teams, that tend to get regular positive results, have good & well organised
Defences, that does not mess about @ the back, by being too casual, & careless, & slopy which
is a fact. As the wise cliché states, all good & well organised Teams are built out from the Back/
Defence, not Make-Shifts & Bomb Scares, I rest my (IMO) comments. Hail ! Hail ! All & COYBIG.
Tony McLaughlin says
I credit JucoJames for giving Brown man of the match.
This shows he is not narrow minded and biased to call things as they are.
Just because he reckons Brown shouldn’t play doesn’t mean he can’t recognise the performance if he does play well.
PS McGregor plays worse when Brown plays so Brown could still be motm but playing impacts the team as others don’t play as well.