Sinclair has a goal scoring record comparable to any striker to play for Celtic in the 21st century. Scorer of 60 goals in his first three seasons, he is behind the likes of Hooper (82), Larsson (70) and Griffiths (67). He is ahead of many well-regarded strikers too as documented by @TriviaTim on Twitter. But he is a wide forward not an out and out striker.
Despite this, he is another that comes in for more than his fair share of criticism. A slight figure, Sinclair isn’t one for the blood and snotters of Scottish football. And he undoubtedly suffers Invincible Syndrome. Defined as “Being an integral part of a never-to-be-repeated wonder season and always negatively compared to it”.
25 goals and 14 assists in the initial Rodgers’ Treble was always going to be a tough act to follow. He was garlanded with four personal end of season awards including Players’ Player of the Year.
Has he hit those height since? No. But then neither has the side in general by performances whilst equalling the trophy haul.
But let’s look at his end of season Report Card comparing to last season.
2018/19 Appearances
Sinclair is rarely injured, missing one game over the last two seasons. He has been used slightly less but still appeared in over 50 matches. One of only five players to do so.
He is completing less 90m shifts. Less than half his total appearances ran the full distance.
Few have contributed more minutes to the Triple Treble.
2018/19 Scoring
With 13 goals and 4 penalties, Sinclair finished equal second top scorer alongside Forrest. He has therefore finished 2nd, 1st and 2nd top scorer in his three seasons. Before joining Celtic, Sinclair had achieved double figures in a season only once. He has achieved that easily in all three seasons in Glasgow.
Numeric values are per 90m
Sinclair has maintained his Goals Per 90m rate at 0.44. For the second season running he is under performing against Expected Goals (xG). Indeed, this season Sinclair could have expected to have achieved more than a goal every other game (0.517 per 90m).
His shot stats are consistent and he continues to take shots from good locations – mainly in the box (77% of all shots). His conversion rates have gone up (16% shot conversion is 3rd best in the squad).
He has seen a healthy increase in number of Big Chances, up 33%. This is consistent with the eye test that suggests he is getting into the box more. The hat-trick against Aberdeen in December is a perfect example of the Celtic wide players getting into more “striker” positions within the box. Sinclair has the 4th highest number of Possessions in the Box with 5.11 per 90m.
The only down side is the decline in Pack Receives. This is an indicator of being available for and controlling forward passes that take out opponents. It is a relatively small reduction.
All this suggests a level of consistency in goal scoring performance with an emphasis on getting into more scoring positions.
He is even offside more often – up 37%!
2018/19 Creativity
Assists have always been secondary in Sinclair’s performances to goals. In the last three seasons he has 14, 15 and 7 respectively. Still very high assist productivity.
But this season, there is something gone a bit different.
Numeric values are per 90m
Whilst general involvement in the game has not differed much, Sinclair is creating significantly less.
His Assist rate is well down to 0.21 per 90m (9th best in the squad – even Lustig’s is higher). And he is perhaps lucky to get that as his Expected Assists (xA) is down to 0.174 (the 14th highest in the squad!).
Not surprisingly then he is creating less chances – down 35%. And the number of successful passes it takes to create a chance has increased from 15 to 22.
Of all the attacking midfielders and strikers, Sinclair has the lowest number of completed passes into the Danger Zone (in the box, parallel to the 6-yard box) at 0.41 per 90m.
And the story is similar in terms of establishing play. He is delivering less Pack Passes that take out opponents. Successful Dribbles are down as well although they success rate has gone up.
Sinclair has attempted but failed to complete more crosses.
Finally, his Secondary Assist rate (the pass before the assisting pass) is 1.19 per 90m. This is only the 9th highest in the squad.
A sea of red then. Is this indicative of a complete loss of form, or a change in role?
2018/19 Attacking Threat
Taking all this in the round, the overall attacking stats:
Numeric values are per 90m
Due to the fall off in assists, overall Scoring Contribution is down.
It must be noted Sinclair is scoring way below his Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) by 0.15 per 90m. He is likely due an upward bump towards the mean.
But overall minutes and possessions per Scoring Contribution are both up over 30%. It is taking more possessions and longer time to produce a scoring contribution.
2018/19 Defending
Why defending? Well, he is a winger with defensive duties. And secondly, these is some interest here.
Numeric values are per 90m
What’s this? Sinclair’s defensive metrics are wayyyyy up.
Wining back possession more often, more challenges won, less unsuccessful challenges, hell, even committing a lot more fouls!
I love finding unexpected data!
Double digit increases in DASR and Possession Win % are significant. It is almost like he is playing in a different position.
Summary
It appears that Sinclair’s role changed this season under Rodgers. Told to attack the box more, along with Forrest, he would seem to have instructions to be the second (or third) striker where possible. Also, his defensive productivity has increased significantly. A systematic recalibration of his role in the team.
There has been a change of emphasis away from getting wide and getting crosses in. I don’t see this as under performance, more a change of emphasis and instruction.
All that being said, I worry for Sinclair under Lennon. Whereas he was Rodger’s marquee signing, had worked under him productively before, and clearly had his trust, that cannot be said under the new manager.
Sinclair has mainly been a substitute under Lennon. He is so obviously a confidence player who needs to feel loved
Whether we will continue to see the metamorphosis of Sinclair depends on a manager who, sadly, does not seem to trust him.
Uralius says
Great stuff as always. I’m often disappointed with Sinclair’s performances, but if he’s doing more defensively then fair enough.
gav says
Great analysis Andy, would you agree that a large correlatory factor for Sinclair’s more defensive approach relates to KT’s injury problems? Sinclair has to work much harder tracking back to assist the visibly less mobile Tierney, ditto to aid Johnny Hayes, who, whilst an able deputy is not a natural left back. This highlights a degree of selflessness and excellent game/tactical awareness where Sinclair is sacrificing his natural attacking instinct in favour of protecting his teammates, even though he knows the boo boys will be on his case. Sinclair is a proper all round baller and we would be severely diminished without him in our squad. Class is permanent, form, as we can see, is subjective, until a proper analysis of the facts proves objective. Watch Sinclair return to his attacking best next season once KT is back and his movement unencumbered.
James Burns says
Dreadful player now it happens often the buzz of a new club then the support for the following season unfortunately although the stats may say different his overall play was at least 2 levels down from his first season any sell at any price with a big kiss and thank you
Holysmokes says
Is there no correlation between Sinclair’s stats and the availability of Tierney to support him?
Surely with Tierney behind /alongside him Sinclair could be used far more effectively as an attacking force than without him.
Lubo's Boots says
Absolutely brilliant piece of analysis. We’ve all witnessed a change in SS with our own eyes, but I’ve rarely seen him really look like he lacks confidence. The defensive numbers are a real eye opener. I’d love him to get a good resurgence of his lethal best under Lenny, but with Forrest in the form of his life, Mikey J bursting through with some swagger, and Maryan Shved looking like a real player it’s going to be really tough for Scotty Sinclair this coming season. Fingers crossed
He’s a likeable lad and a great pro.
Stanley Gerard Noga says
Brilliant player but always looks fed up or depressed unless when he has just scored his face lights up, I hope he stays for a long time. God bless him.
Johnny B says
In season 2&3 he has always had two or three markers snuffing him out and yet his stats are still good.
I wonder why we did not try him up front with Eddy…..would have been interesting.
Pretty sure he will go in this window.
Duncan says
He’s had one stellar Season in 3 and no longer looks confident in taking men on.
More often than not he stops turns round and gives a pass back.
Hayes offers way more defensively and I think played regularly more width on the left.
The problem was Rodgers continually played Sinclair even when he wasn’t producing whilst simultaneously either leaving Hayes out or playing him on the right as backup for Forrest.
I think Sinclairs contract was extended because they are aware another Club is interested in him.
Get him punted I say and bring in some quality out there.
Lestienne at Standard Liège for example.
Duncan says
Or alternatively bring back Morgan and get both him and Johnston operating out there on rotation and see who is best out the two.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hayes instead of Sinclair? Sorry there is no empirical basis for that at all. Replacing goals with banging hopeful balls into the box.
Duncan says
You might want to go and watch some of the goals and support play Hayes contributed at Aberdeen no to mention the defensive qualities he offers.
I wonder out of the two who Tierney prefers in front of him?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I’ve got Hayes stats and I’ve got Sinclair’s for Celtic. Trust me.
But fundamentally, what I think Rodgers was trying to do is to get Forrest and Sinclair in the box more often and it worked when you consider their goal returns. You don’t need the fabled “two strikers” when you have a front 3 scoring goals.
Hayes doesn’t fit that model. He is better playing in a side firing crosses into a big target man.
Duncan says
You are preaching to the converted Alan I argued the point fr 2 Seasons when Deila was appointed that we were effectively playing 3 up as opposed to 2.
Thing is when hat is your only option it then becomes predictable and we end up in the position we have been for 18 months now.
Stats don’t tell the full story and the fact of the matter is we might well have scored more goals from allover the Park playing different systems and setups against different opposition.
Without being over dramatic the level of defending in Scotland isn’t that great on the whole.
Commons scoring record was excellent but his contribution defensively was poor so as a result he had no future under Deila or Rodgers yet under Lenny he was incredibly important for us.
You should play to your strengths of course but no matter what the stats say Sinclair is not taking men on with the same intent now and is more likely to score from within 10 yards with a tap in than dribble past 2 defenders and slap it in the top corner from 18 yards.
Hayes can and does do this if he is deployed correctly but under Rodger this was never the case.
Also when it comes to crossing the ball into the box quality is always key.
That is to say quality delivery matched by quality finishing.
You get both those right it has as much place in attacking football as any other tried and tested method.
Arguably the single most important goal this Season (Simunovic header 67th minute) was a result of both these actions being carried out perfectly.
I think Hayes has shown a terrific level of application given the lack of regular game time and the fact he’s been deployed out with his preferred position for the most part.
I expect that to change this Season.
Even more so if we secure a proper No9 with an aerial threat.
The more options you have the better I have always felt and a bit more pragmatic approach to problem solving also.
I have a gut feeling we will receive a bid for Sinclair and it will be accepted.
Time will tell of course.
Duncan says
On the goals scored thing Alan
Here are the Goals Scored tallies (From The League)from Lennons first full Season in charge up until this Season in Scotland:
NEIL LENNON
2010-11 Goals Scored 85
2011-12 Goals Scored 84
2012-13 Goals Scored 92
2013-14 Gaols Scored 102
Average under Lennon 90.75 per Season playing 2 up and a multitude of systems.
RONNY DEILA
2014-15 Goals Scored 84
2015-16 Goals Scored 93
Average under Deila 88.5 predominantly deploying 4-2-3-1 with 3 in Attack
BRENDAN RODGERS
2016-17 Goals Scored 106
2017-18 Goals Scored 73
2018-19 Goals Scored 77
Average under Rodgers 85.3 predominantly deploying 4-2-3-1 with 3 in Attack
On the flip side Goals Conceded there’s an interesting turnaround:
Lennon Average 25.75 per Season
Deilas Average 24 per Season
Rodgers Average 23.3 per Season
My conclusion to that is we scored more goals under Lennon deploying multiple setups over a longer time frame but this resulted in weaker defence.
Duncan says
Been brilliant in Europe this Season with a more flexible approach to system’s (Pragmatic Lenny) and Sinclair has not been missed this Season due to the form and impact of Johnston and Elyounoussi.
Hayes has also proven to be adequate backup in Sinclairs absence.
I don’t know what G rating Forrest has this Season but the OMG rating of the current side is off the chart.
Long may this continue to be the case.
HH