Tough Selection Choices. How The Numbers Help.

Rodger’s has a number of prickly decisions to make as regards the line up for the end of year Glasgow Derby. As always, I’ll let the numbers guide us.

Goalkeeper

Gordon hasn’t saved a shot since 14:07 on 16^th December away at Hibernian. A supine Motherwell was followed by Bain watch against Dundee. Against the Dons, the home side scored with all three shots on target, including two penalties. Whilst Gordon never looks like getting near any opposition penalty (and the risk of facing one at Ibrox must be high), in other respects it will be a major surprise of he isn’t between the sticks for this game.

Right Back

The re-emergence of Ralston in recent matches has been one of the most pleasing aspects of an eventful season. Young Sparky Ralston not only won 20 challenges / intercepts but had possession in the opposition box 14 times in two matches. His Expected Scoring Contribution in those matches was 0.973 and he indeed scored 1 goal.

Such poor opposition was undoubtedly a factor and it is almost certain the experienced Lustig will retain his place. His hand into Shinnie’s back allowed the Aberdeen captain to swallow dive in the Celtic box, a chance Collum was not to waste. But Lustig is the most robust full back Celtic have and tends to step up in big matches. He wins 3.69 aerial challenges per 90m and that will be an important factor on Saturday in both boxes.

Hopefully we’ll see more of Ralston over the rest of the season.

Left Back

Unless Rodgers was embarking in kidology, the signs are Tierney will not be ready. Izaguirre has had a run but was hooked at half time against Aberdeen. Izaguirre is “packed” (bypassed by opposition forward passes) more often (5.85) than any other Celtic defender. Being caught with the ball in behind partly led to the Aberdeen penalty. He also gives the ball away through errant passing more than any other player in the squad (12.05 times per 90m).

What has given the manager pause for thought was an influential performance from Hayes at left back in the second half in Aberdeen. He made one error, presenting the ball to the Dons centrally late in the game. But otherwise his excellent speed was eye catching compared to the regressing Izaguirre. Hayes completed 40 passes, won back possession 3 times and won 7 challenges / intercepts. His quick pass to Edouard was the secondary assist for the 4^th goal.

This may be Rodger’s toughest choice but with signs of Izaguirre’s lack of pace increasing, this could be Haye’s “Christie” moment.

Centre Back

The boss clearly sees Boyata and Benkovic as his first-choice pairing.

A big muscular man, Boyata looked shaky against Aberdeen in the early stages as he got back up to match speed. Particularly worrisome was a leg wobbling moment trying to stop McLennan crossing. But he settled down to an excellent game. Boyata won 13 challenges/intercepts for a game DASR% of 87%. He won back possession from defensive actions a team leading 7 times without losing it.

He completed 96% of all passes (92 completed) and broke the Aberdeen initial press 11 times with forward passes.

Meanwhile Benkovic is simply un-droppable. Celtic By Numbers Bhoy of the Match 5 times in 19 appearances including an unprecedented 3 matches in a row.

It will be Boyata and Benkovic.

Central Midfield

The midfield balance wasn’t quite right against Aberdeen. Brown won and lost 6 challenges / intercepts, losing possession 3 times whilst recovering it 4 times. He moved the ball on well enough completing 77 passes at 93%. It would be ludicrously brave to not play Brown. His big match temperament and control in these games will ensure experience prevails.

I was surprised at the time that McGregor was taken off but the manager got it spot on. McGregor operated as a number 8 shuttling up and down the inside left position. He completed only 24 passes, creating one chance but only completing 1 Pack Pass. Although heavily involved in the opening goal he was largely marginalised by Don’s man to man marking and the position he played in.

It is imperative against The Rangers McGregor is given a more central role as first receiver to move the ball quickly forward. Celtic are usually devastating when this happens.

With Rogic at the Asia Cup the choice is then between Ntcham and Christie. Regular readers know that Ntcham is the Pack King and his worth to the team is sometimes too subtle to be obvious – see Why Ntcham Matters.

However, Christie HAS to play. Against Aberdeen he played as a false 9 and then more centrally. But he tends to go wherever he can cause trouble. And everything is done at pace. He was involved in all 4 Celtic goals versus the Dons. Providing the through ball for McGregor’s cross for the first. He also played establishing passes for all 3 second half goals, the pace and forward intent of each pass giving the moves impetuous.

If you don’t yet appreciate the box to box value Christie provides please read More Christie Stat Porn and Celtic Speed To A Future Without Brown. At Aberdeen he had 6 shots and created 2 chances. He was involved in more challenges (15) that any other player (matching Benkovic and Boyata). His Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC – expected goals and assists per 90m) is a squad leading 0.835.

I could go on.

For me it is a central three of Brown, McGregor and Christie with Brown filling holes and McGregor free to dictate the ball. Just let Christie loose to do Christie stuff.

Wide Forwards

One of the may peculiarities of football is the ability to make devastating contributions without otherwise being involved much.

And so was it thus at Aberdeen.

Forrest had a 4% utilisation rate yet had more possessions in the box than any other player (5). He also created 3 chances including 2 assists. In total he only completed 21 passes.

With Sinclair it was similar. He only completed 12 passes and had a utilisation rate of 3%. Yet left the pitch with the match ball after a poaching hattrick of centrally positioned finishing. Those were his only 3 shots but he did create 2 chances.

Long story short, they are in rich creative form and will play.

Striker

The introduction of Edouard on 70 minutes gave Celtic forward focus versus Aberdeen. The Dons, after an effective high pressing aggressive half, strangely sat back in the second half into a medium block and looked content for a point. Celtic were lulled into possession with little purpose. Edouard provided that purpose.

He scored, assisted and racked up a 54 Impect score in 20 minutes (Christie had top Impect of 74).

A refreshed Edouard against tiring defenders was devastating. He has previous against this opposition and will surely start.

Conclusion

A couple of tough choices for Rodgers, but if he is paying attention to the numbers it is a 4-3-3: