As a consistent critic of Celtic’s squad management over the last number of seasons, I wanted to take a check point on where we are now the 4th Summer signing, Abd Elhamed, is in the door.
Operating Environment
Firstly, Celtic operate in a unique place where they are a relatively affluent club from a non-Top 5 European League who have to commence transfer operations in mid-June. This is well before some clubs return to preseason. Up to four rounds of Champions League qualification have to be planned for. Most good players with options will leave it as late as possible within the transfer windows (which variously run to the end of August but some leagues are later) to commit and drive the maximum deal.
Furthermore, Celtic have many valuable assets in the squad such as Tierney, Ajer, Ntcham, McGregor and Edouard. Any one of those could fetch eight figure transfer fees. Given the larger clubs from the more monied leagues will not do business until later in the window, Celtic are further at risk from a late bid for a key asset as happened with Dembele last year. This leaves little time to source a replacement.
Also, European football fate has an impact on budget projections and will not be known until late August (hopefully).
In short, it is a difficult environment for the club to operate in terms of buying and selling.
Historical Squad Mis-management
All that being said, I believe that the squad has had some glaring weaknesses that have not been addressed over many windows:
- The lack of succession planning for Lustig / right back;
- Lack of stability in central defence and entering every Champions League qualifying campaign with a patched-up pairing;
- The lack of succession planning for Brown;
- The lack of cover for Tierney;
- An overabundance of wingers; and
- Continual shortage of fit striking options.
And here we are, in the second of (hopefully) four Champions League qualifying ties with:
- No trusted recognised right back;
- A central midfielder playing at centre back (already badly exposed at this level) and the best centre back prospect at right back;
- Relying on Brown; and
- Hoping Edouard is not injured as the only fully match fit striker.
Lennon’s Requirements
None of this is Lennon’s fault, of course.
He has consistently stated his requirements:
- 5 starters in;
- 1 a right back with further cover for that position;
- 1 more striker; and
- 1 more central midfielder.
That is not to say other players who are “projects” or back ups will not be purchased. See next section.
Business So Far
With the addition of Abd Elhamed, Celtic have acquired four players this Summer.
Matching the incomings to the requirements:
- Abed Elhamed is a centre back who can play right back and defensive midfield. I would posit he is the cover at right back whilst filling the 4th centre back position after Ajer, Jullien and Simunovic. In other words, he is a utility squad player and not one of the five starters.
- Bolingoli provides cover for Tierney and is a natural to fill a left-wing back role in a 3-5-2 formation, one of Lennon’s favoured systems. I believe, with concerns over a) his injuries and b) whether he will move in this window, that Bolingoli is seen as a starter in the event of losing Tierney. Best case, he will allow quality cover for Tierney in the event he stays and recovers full fitness.
- Connell is a project who became available due to Bolton Wanderers financial difficulties. At the cost of a development fee, and with the ringing endorsement of the senior Republic of Ireland management team, he is seen as one for the future and not one of the starters.
- Jullien, at £7m, is seen as one of the starters and a direct replacement for Boyata.
So, Celtic have filled 2 out of the 5 starter positions Lennon has identified.
Work to Do
That means that Celtic are actively looking for starter standard players at right back, central midfield and striker.
The right back saga resembles The Searchers and has thus far been fruitless. Names mentioned (Baldock, Smith in particular) are, at best, uninspiring, and at worst, not upgrades on players who have left. Suffice to say the search goes on.
Turnbull was the target for the midfield role and we all know how that went. This suggests Lennon wants a box to box type all round midfielder. It further suggests Brown will be covered by a combination of Bitton and Abd Elhamed. That is, the required target is not seen as a Brown replacement. I will discuss below what that may mean to outgoings.
There have been very few rumours on the 4th striker. Hopefully this is a classic Celtic quiet piece of business.
By the way, four strikers make sense even if you do not believe Lennon will develop the team to a 4-4-2 variant of 3-5-2 (or both). You need to go back to the 15th April 2018 for the last time Celtic had there three strikers fit. Since that day (the Scottish Cup Semi Final massacre of The Rangers), for 465 days, Celtic have had only two of Dembele, Edouard and Griffiths fit. None of the loan players from January 2019 (Weah, Burke) were natural strikers.
So, even if Lennon goes with one striker, it seems like history suggests four are needed in the squad.
Outgoings
Whilst pruning the squad by eight (Allan, Boyata, Compper, De Vries. Gamboa, Izaguirre, Lustig, Mulumbu), this still leaves a first team pool of 29. This is still too large.
Bain is being given the chance to prove himself to Lennon with Gordon, now fit, as cover. This is not a priority area.
There is no one left to move on at right back. Ralston is still here but with Celtic claiming Abd Elhamed is one right back, and a first choice still being pursued, it could mean a loan spell for the youngster with less than 1000 minutes to his name.
Left back may see Tierney depart but his ongoing injury problems may preclude that. Lennon confirms the double hernia rehab AND the degenerative pubis issue for Tierney. He is “weeks” from joining first team training then has to get up to fitness. If he does leave, another left back will be needed.
Bolingoli seems to be first team ready leaving Miller and Hayes as back up. Do not be surprised if Miller is subject to another loan spell out.
Centre back looks to be filled with Abd Elhamed and Jullien replacing Boyata and Benkovic. Probably not an uptick on quality overall, but a deepening of the squad for permanent employees. I cannot see Hendry figuring should all four be available. Especially as Bitton seems to be preferred as an alternative.
In defensive midfield Brown is now covered by Bitton and Abd Elhamed. Kouassi is fit and with minimal game time over the last three seasons could be another candidate for a loan out.
Of the number eights, Ntcham is back in the fold with McGregor and Christie. This is where Lennon wants one other. It was to be Turnbull. Whether this is predicated on Christie being a 10 / support striker or Ntcham leaving (or both) it looks an area that will be short. Henderson may not be seen as ready for a long campaign and could be loaned out.
There is a question of whether Lennon favours playing with an out and out 10. Only Rogic fits that description in the current squad. His form and injury record suggest he is out the picture for now although Lennon says he is back in rehab (weeks from fitness in other words). With Christie able to fulfil a hybrid 8 and 10 role, I would not be surprised to see Rogic balance the books if he regains fitness before the windows close.
Rodger’s “millions of wingers” quip was more instructive of his relationship with the Celtic hierarchy than anything else, but there are many choices in this area. Morgan and Johnston have been given the opportunity to compliment Forrest in the wing positions. Forrest may be ear marked for a support striker role centrally which further limits Rogic involvement. In which case Shved and the on loan Arzani may feature. Hayes would be back up to those players but a useful bench player as he can cover so many positions. Again, if books need to be balanced, Hayes would he a candidate.
That leaves Sinclair. He does not seem to be favoured by Lennon, and was left out towards the end of last season. Morgan and Johnston have been preferred not only to start but to come on as substitutes. Will a season at sub be what he wants at this stage of his career?
Finally, striker. Given the consistent trend of having no more than two strikers at a time, I believe Celtic will go with four. Bayo, Edouard and Griffiths supplemented by one more – perhaps a younger player although another starter would be a statement from Lennon.
Outgoing Summary
In summary, I foresee loans out for:
- Ralston
- Miller
- Kouassi
- Henderson
To reduce the squad to manageable numbers the following may be surplus to requirements:
- Hendry
- Hayes
- Rogic
The latter will generate a reaction but I am going by three things.
- I am not convinced Lennon favours playing an out and out 10.
- Lennon would prefer to repurpose Forrest or have Christie in that role.
- Rogic’s form fell off the cliff last season. With three years left on his contract, Celtic could cash in.
I foresee Sinclair having to make a decision on whether he wants to stay and try and convince Lennon to trust him, or take the opportunity for a final EPL play day.
That would reduce the working squad size to 26 assuming Celtic buy three more starters and Sinclair stays.
That sounds about right.
Conclusion
Lennon states Celtic are “miles” from having the squad he wants. I believe he is looking for at least three more starter level players.
The squad will be too big if there are no outgoings. There are some obvious loan leavers to consider. There will have to be some squad churn to keep the numbers manageable and offset the £12 million (so far) outlay.
Feel free to disagree / comment below!
Steve McGrory says
Alan, I agree broadly with what you have posted, A very comprehensive and sensible summary. Possible points of conjecture are:
– If Elhamed hits the ground running at RB (hopefully he will), he may be difficult to displace, even by a “first choice” RB.
– Can see Karamoko having a substitute’s role to play this season, especially at CP – his Hearts cameo transformed the game on Trophy Day last season.
– Think Hayes will stay – as his age, don’t think that any transfer will bring in much revenue to balance the books. Plus think Lenny rates and trusts him as a squad player a la Bitton (as you said).
– Looks like Hendry & Kouassi are already earmarked to go out on loan, as per speculation (from various sources) today.
– The first decent bid and I think Ntcham will be off.
– Henderson is a different proposition from Ralston & Miller imho. If he does go out on loan, it will be more of a “Ajer/Christie/McGregor” scenario where you’re sending him out to develop (physically and tactically) to return a first team regular. The bhoy is a terrific talent and has the potential to make it at CP, unlike Tony & Calvin who hopefully will form a decent career elsewhere.
Cheers and keep up the good work
Steve
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Steve
All makes sense to me
sonnybhoy88 says
abd el hamed is a stone cold right back that can also play center back and defensive mid…….HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Evidence?
Tooting Tim says
Sensible, rational, measured summary.
Don’t you know this is the interweb man?
No place for this kind of thing:)
HH
Rod says
I can see Ajer back in midfield rather than in centre of the defence. He is poor in the air and can only tackle with one foot so I don’t go along with the hype that he is good in defence. We need a RB and certainly LB (otherwise please define the role he has to play ) an experienced midfielder for Brown or a midfielder who can run at defences and certainly a box striker. All our wingers so far are too lighteweight. Like all disappointed so far with the window and only one has performed so far! Lawwell did say early on that the team did not need much!!!
Iain in Alberta says
I think Ntcham and Sinclair will be sold ‘to balance the books’ this window. Rogic. I hope, stays at least until next year. When we had Calmac, Ryan and Rogic as the 3 in midfield we played our best football in that period. If Ntcham goes then it would allow Henderson to be in and around the team and not loaned out. Kouassi has hardly played due to injury and when not injured being low man on the totem pole. He needs a run of games. Possibly elsewhere? So I agree maybe a loan for 6 months is best for him. Ralston is a very good defender but needs to improve his crossing . I would like to see him as a backup RB. Miller is extremely talented and versatile. I would suggest he take Hayes role on the bench. This would allow for Hayes to be sold, although I have always been impressed by Hayes workrate and attitude. He really does play for the team.
Celtic have a large amount of young players who are very talented; Ralston, Miller, McInroy, Coffey, Welsh, Dembele, Aitchison, Oko-Flex, Hazard and Henderson, who I believe should be given a chance but my job does not depend on them. Johnston has shown what he can do when given the chance. I would keep them and blood them into the team as the chances appear. eg. next game against Kalju give Ralston and Miller the wingback roles in a 3-5-2.
Anyway I respect the work you do on this site and thanks very much for all the hard work. HH
Duncan says
I think Sinclairs contract was extended with view to him being sold.
I would not be the least bit suprised if Lawwell wasn’t already aware of interest when he did offer an extension.
Ntcham will be punted as soon as a reasonable offer is tabled.
Like Dembele and Edouard he was signed with one eye on making profit.
His comments in the media were designed to Engineer that happening in this window.
I don’t he will be missed personally as I don’t think he is suited to the frenetic nature of the game in Scotland.
I suspect Eboue and Hendry will also leave as there seems little prospect of either getting game time at Celtic now.
The big issue is Tierney and regardless of what the Club says his absence and silence on the speculation tells me anyway he isn’t too far off heading south.
If this transpired then there will be no requirement to balance any books (which are already balanced btw at less than 60% of Turnover in wages) as this fee will not only allow us to replace him at a stroke with say someone of Melings quality but also negate any spend we have made so far.
It will allow the Club to bring in better quality in areas we need it.
The signing of Elhamed will allow us to deploy 3 at the back more readily now seeing as he is comfortable as both a CB and a RB and I believe we will actively try sign another RB if either Tierney or Ntcham are sold,
Ralston is miles off the required level at Celtic and it would appear Lenny is not that comfortable with him in there in crunch games.
You have to feel for Miller given it was Rodgers wisdom to redeploy him in a Defensive role after spending his entire youth career as an attack minded prospect.
bournesouprecipe says
Good summary of where we are, and correct that on 27/7/19 we still need at least three players.
Caveats;
‘Historical Mismanagement’ is subjective and we changed managers, which changed the pursuit of the right player, we don’t want the board planning to sign players, we want Neil Lennon to find his men.
The longer we go without a first choice RB the better IMO, as it might get us beyond the English window, and hopefully meaning we’re spending more on a player from a better league.
This window is not about ‘net spend’ its about spending millions on players that want to come to Celtic and the Scottish League. Multi million pound players tend not to want to rush to Scotland and like all windows, we will be involved as the window closes, and players have to decide where they are going.
If we sell KT all hell will break loose again amongst the net spend brigade, and the stockpiling of money that never seems to get spent.
Hail Hail
The Cha says
Regarding Hatem, Lennon told the Beeb “I watched him in the last four or five games of last season, he was playing at right back”.
This seems to be totally at odds with what yourself, the SportsRabbi (!) and the player himself say, which is that he’s been playing CB for the last couple of years, although he played previously as a RB and there’s no reports of him being found wanting in that position.
wrt Sinclair, I can see that as a sub, at best, he may want to move but the approx 100 goals he’s been involved in (scored/assisted) will be difficult to replicate. Clearly, Johnston looks like he can reach that level but it’ll be a couple of years before he’s at Sinclair levels. As for Hayes (non-scoring, little assisting) and Morgan (a failure in the English 3rd division)…just naw.
I assume that 1 of your 2 new starters is Boli, as you expect Tierney to go, which as everytime the trail seems to go cold its Celtic that breathes new life into it, is sadly a fair assumption.
Re ‘balancing the books’, if we seriously want to do this then we need to spend tens of millions, as we’ve been stockpiling it over the fabulously profitable Rodgers years. I’m not suggesting we do this but serious investment (£5-10m players rather than £1-2m projects/backups) is what we should be doing rather than selling valuable assets to vastly deplete the quality for no advantage.
Duncan says
Anyone with a modicum of knowledge about Football can see from the footage available that Elhamed is both comfortable on the right and in possession.
He has pace and strength and is decent in the tackle and it matters not that he has spent more time centrally with these attributes.
Hence why both he and Lenny are confident it won’t be an issue.
All of that aside I think Lenny will favour deploying him as a RCB in a 3.
Which if we are going with 2 up top when we do actually negates the need for an out and out RB.
Forrest has been doing fine on the defensive side for 2 years now,
Iain in Alberta says
Duncan, I agree with you on Miller about his being repostioned to left back. BR did that with Ryan Bertrand also? So he believed it would work again. I don’t think Ralston is miles off the required level of Celtic. I just reread the previous article about him and generally his stats are good. He needs the odd game now and again to bring him on, IMHO. I think his numbers will be better than Boli’s once he has played 10 games.
Thanks for this site CBN doing a great job and fast becoming my favourite.
Duncan says
I used to watch quite a bit of the Development games in previous years and attended a few of the European games down in England and at the time two Fullback players caught my eye.
Kieran Tierney was the first and Sam Wardrop was the other.
For whatever reason they let Wardrop go and kept Ralston on.
I think this was a mistake.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks Iain very kind. Ralston needs games. I wouldn’t give up on him.