On this week’s Huddle Breakdown (please subscribe on whatever channel you consume your podcasts) @jucojames spelt out how some of Celtic’s key metrics have declined since the World Cup hiatus. And they are some core metrics, for sure. Looking at Scottish matches only, expected goals (xG) is down from 2.99 to 2.82. Celtic are having … [continue reading]
Team Performance
Five Sub Rule Brings Unexpected Dividend
The five substitutes rule was introduced during the COVID-19 impacted seasons to help teams manage their squads on the understanding that many may be impacted by the disease in some way and to allow the flexibility to better manage player wellbeing. I was surprised this arrangement was taken on in Scottish football as a permanent … [continue reading]
Rodgers, Lennon, Postecoglou and Spain
The World Cup has thrown up many interesting matches and the penalty win by Morocco over Spain seemed especially notable. Despite 77 percent possession, and completing 926 passes with 91 percent accuracy, Spain mustered 13 shots, with seven being on target but the total xG for all that was a paltry 1.01. An average of … [continue reading]
Good / Bad / Lucky / Unlucky
Whilst Celtic are getting soundly thrashed in the World Cup Break Cup (see any edition of the Daily Record for details), a reversion to a time when actual football was played. A regular feature is the Good/Bad/Lucky/Unlucky grid. In essence this plots teams’ average goal difference with the difference between that and the expected goals … [continue reading]
Fast Start, Strong Finish
In most running races it is important to start well to establish rhythm and confidence. And, obviously, to finish well – to have enough in the tank for a strong finish without either blowing up too early, or leaving anything on the track. So, in football, being a low scoring sport, it is unusual for … [continue reading]
Expected Brutality
On this week’s Huddle Breakdown, @jucojames explained that Celtic have given up more than two xG against in a string of matches against top class opposition over the last season and a bit. Matches away in AZ Alkmaar, in the Europa League against Real Betis and Bayer 04 Leverkusen, plus this seasons Champions League matches … [continue reading]
What To Expect
Despite defeat at St Mirren, those that produce Expected Points models are still indicating Celtic have an expected lead over their opponents. @TheGersReport takes the underlying performance data and projects the season forwards on the basis that results will track to that data. His model has Celtic winning the league by 24 points! Note this … [continue reading]
Season Record “Highs” in Thumping Win
Celtic’s thumping 7-0 win over St Johnstone was certainly the catalyst for “giving good numbers”. Oooerr, missus! This was Celtic’s first 7 goal performance since beating the same opponent on the 3rd August, 2019 – the opening day of that season. Christie hattrick was supplemented by goals from Johnston, Ntcham, Edouard and Griffiths, Let’s take … [continue reading]
The Taming of the Blues
The Derby last Sunday unfurled in the manner of the classic three act play. (That is my artifice and I am sticking to it). Act One In which the Evil King exerts a brutal dominance! Gasp! Horror! Celtic’s first 7 minutes were, to use technical football parlance, a bit rubbish. With so much riding on … [continue reading]
Derby Day Data
Here are the match stats from the Derby on Sunday. Highlights Note there are some disparities in xG based on data provider. Statsbomb claim the most sophisticated model. I believe my own overstates The Rangers chances compared to that one due to the pressure being applied and the height of the ball for e.g. Roofe’s … [continue reading]