By James Dailey
I believe an important aspect of being an analyst is to evaluate one’s work and be honest in that assessment. This is my 10th piece for Celtic by Numbers since Alan was gracious enough to allow me to share my work on his platform (I know superior talent when I see it! – Ed). As with anyone, I am sure I’ll have some real stinkers and be horribly wrong at times. My goal is to be right more than I’m wrong, while hopefully challenging how readers think and not be too boring!
2 not 1
My first piece looked at our strikers and my basic conclusions were that Edouard plays more like a left sided forward or number 10 and would benefit from being paired with a more traditional box striker, whether that was to be Klimala or Bayo. I did not include Griffiths in my analysis for a variety of reasons, but I will admit that I was skeptical about his return to being productive at a high level.
Another one of my pieces examined how odd Lennon’s nearly exclusive use of the 4-2-3-1 prior to the winter break was out of character for him given his managerial record, and that he would probably go with two strikers with 4 fit options. Since the break, he’s done so in five out of six games.
Along with better utilizing Edouard’s talents, I also speculated in another piece that either the 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 diamond would help address what I’ve seen as the biggest problem under Lennon’s tenure, which is how he’s misused McGregor, and our midfield in general.
Striking Numbers
Now that I’ve laid out a brief summary, let’s look at some numbers:
These figures are all for SPFL league games and are broken down into pre-winter break games and then the five games league games played using 3-5-2 as the primary formation: the December Hibs game is in both samples. As one can see, performance levels are improved both offensively and defensively. The normal caution about sample size and relative strength of opposition in the samples apply.
This group of data is again all SPFL league games and compares each player’s production per 90 minutes (excluding penalties and free kicks), while again breaking them out by pre-winter break and the games using the 3-5-2 formation. I’ve also included a line at the bottom titled “Edouard Partner,” which includes when Forrest played as a striker with Edouard versus Hibs in December, and then also when Griffiths was paired with Edouard as part of the 3-5-2, but also the one Cup game versus Partick Thistle where we played 4-4-2 diamond.
The Pre-Break data segment includes the primary attacking players in the 4-2-3-1 along with McGregor. As you know, Ntcham and Christie split the number 10 position at times and Christie also played wide right frequently after Elyounoussi dropped out due to injury.
It is important to recognize that there is some reallocation of offensive performance due to the change of formation. It is only logical that Forrest would generate less xG at the wingback position versus as an attacking winger, and the data certainly reflects that. However, despite all the continued handwringing over Forrest, his output is still tremendous for a wingback – offensively. I share the concerns over Forrest’s production defensively in that role, but his xG and xA dwarf Taylor’s 0.02 and 0.16 production as a wingback in the 3-5-2. In my opinion, Bolingoli and Frimpong are better suited to offer a more balanced offensive and defensive profile at the wingback positions, and hope we get the chance to see that combination.
Ntcham’s offensive production level has dropped some, which is also to be expected due to the shift from playing an 8 versus 10 in midfield. However, look at the explosion in production from Edouard, McGregor and Griffiths! Edouard’s scoring production is slightly improved, but his xA has ramped to that of a great number 10. Edouard has produced in the 3-5-2 at the level of an elite striker AND an elite number 10 all at the same time.
To put that 0.39 xA figure into perspective, Kevin De Bruyne has an average xA per 90 minutes of 0.37 over his career in EPL league games (only Messi consistently averages over 0.4 per 90m – Ed). McGregor has similarly seen his xA explode from 0.16 to 0.29, which on an output basis, takes him into the neighborhood of the likes of Eriksen, peak David Silva, etc. As always when I make such comparisons, I am not suggesting the players or leagues are of comparable quality but offer a perspective as to the level of output at the level they are playing.
Despite all the rhetoric about not having enough fit or effective centre halfs, our xG conceded in the 3-5-2 has dropped to 0.42 per game. Brown’s defensive stats (not shown) have improved modestly with his move to a central midfield role.
The one issue where I think I’ve been objectively wrong was my skepticism towards Griffiths’ ability to return at an acceptable level. His production has been tremendous, though I will qualify it with one caveat. His direct link up play with Edouard has been very mixed, and Forrest posted an xG and xA per 90 of 0.64 and 0.40 in the game versus Hibs when he was paired with Edouard as a striker. Griffiths deserves credit for his efforts and production, but I am not yet convinced any of our natural strikers wouldn’t produce similarly playing with the brilliant Edouard and an attacking McGregor. Regardless, I am thrilled about having been wrong.
Conclusion
Lennon seems to have reverted to type by playing two strikers, which has also “fixed” our midfield and unleashed McGregor and Edouard’s creativity. We are scoring more goals, conceding less, and the underlying xG data indicate the improvement is legit. Of course, more games and expanding the sample size would help separate the signal from the noise, but so far?
All hail the 3-5-2!
Matt Kennedy says
Great analysis and please keep on updating the data and updating us with the results.
One worry for me with 3 at the back, is the space is leaves in the corners. Cluj exploited this to great effect in,the CL scoring 4 with diagonal balls into these areas.
So far we haven’t been punished badly in SPL but a worry going forward maybe? Thoughts?
James Dailey says
Hello Matt,
I agree there are risks with the 3-5-2 – I posted some screenshots and comments on Twitter (@jucojames) yesterday covering that specific issue. I think Forrest is less than ideal to cover defensively as a RWB and the issue you raise with diagonals certainly is related. My biggest concerns is the continued and normal decline in mobility of Brown. A mixture of his relatively low mobility combined with wingbacks that can be caught forward could be lethal against higher level opponents. I’d like to see Boli and Frimpong at WB’s and see what our defensive cover looks like. Thank you for reading and commenting.
Rachel says
Great article, thanks and please continue posting!
A quick question – do you know much about Klimala’s stats from Poland? Do you think they suggest he would work better than Grif with Eddie?
I feel a bit sorry for Bayo as I reckon there is a player there but he’s been unlucky with injury.
James Dailey says
Hello Rachel,
Thank you for the kind words. I covered much of what you are asking in my first piece on Celtic By Numbers: http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/celtic-strikes-back/
I think Griff’s skills look like they remain intact – I am concerned that his movement and quickness may not be up to the level of higher end opponents and/or Europe. He’s clearly more accomplished than either of the other two options, but the other options are in their early 20’s and bigger/stronger/faster. So it some sense it is a relative contest of brains vs brawn. We simply haven’t seen enough of either to have any good sense of what they may be. I remain enthralled with the potential of Bayo with Edouard because of his elite ability in the air, which could help further unleash Jullien on set pieces, but also as importantly, help us defend better versus set pieces. Thanks for reading and commenting.
john quinn says
fantastic piece i love reading celtic by numbers great insight into the finer details of the team keep up the good work
Duncan says
Yes and as predicted Griffiths and Édouard would click.
Édouard is a much better player in the supporting Striker role than leading the line.
Griffiths on the other hand is perfect for leading the line.
A blind man could see this.
ptw1953 says
Excellent analysis. I really enjoy reading such articles, but would ask if it is absolutely necessary to use the Americanism ‘offensive’? Would ‘attacking’ not be more apt for your audience? Americanisms such as ‘awesome’ and ‘offensive’ (In a sporting context) really piss me off. Nevertheless, an excellent analysis, as always…
Rolling Stone says
Hopefully the 3-5-2 is here to stay.
When playing against packed defences it pays to have two players on the park who specialise in putting the ball in the back of the net. Yesterday was a professional performance in poor conditions, but nonetheless, I think we would have been better served with two up top.
It also allows us to have 3 six foot plus CBs which affords us a greater attacking threat from set pieces as well as reducing the likelihood of conceding from one which is particularly important given that set pieces (seemingly) afford the best opportunity for SPFL teams to score against us.
3-5-2 also affords us the opportunity to moderate the personnel and level of attacking threat/defensive cover, depending on circumstances. Aside from Sevco and European games, I would like to see JF and Elyounoussi start on the wings. For European games, Boli and Frimpong should get the nod. Frimpong should also get the nod against Sevco as JF is ineffective.
Last but not least, I would like to see an Eddy/Bayo partnership. Eddy will roam outside the box and Bayo will occupy the 6 yard box and provide a physical presence. That partnership, combined with a back 3, provides us with much needed physicality and height. I think it would be a good option against Sevco.
Jim says
Yeah 3-5-2 is better than 4-2-3-1 & produces more positive results & a better conversion rate as well
As for the point Rachel made about Kilmala & Bayo @ present I would have Bayo in front of Kilmala as
far as the pecking order is concerned point being Bayo is more settled & has better off the ball movement
than Kilmala in other words picking up good positions when attacking & in the opositions area/18 yard
box so therefore Bayo should be in front of Kilmala @ present & given more of a chance/run out until Kilmala finds his feet/sharpness here in Coldland which will come over time for Kilmala.
I still think we need to strengthen our Defence in all positions especially away from Home where we seam to get more exposed put it this way Chris Jullien is not our finished article yet Ayer is more of a Midfield Player than a Defender in other words he is better making his forward runs than his Defending Elhamed seams to be more Injured & out of the First Team rather than in it Johnny Hayes as we all know is being played out of his Natural Position as well & Greg Taylor should get more of a run out along with the player we have on loan from Stoke & Simovich can still be used until we seriously tighten up @ the back (Defence) as for the enigma namely James Forrest he was a different player under Brendan Rodgers & now he is back to the same old self in his defence though he does have pace & his decision making on the ball is better than what it use to be for example passing when he should be shooting & shooting when he should be passing however he does not track back & defend & yes as Rolling Stone says he is Ineffective @ times in High Profile matches put it this way James Forrest is an out & out Winger that’s all & so is Young Frimpong who has Flare & Elonussi is a Winger too the likes of Scott Brown can still do a holding Job & pop up with an odd Goal here & there Oliver Nicham can also play through the Midfield & so can Tom Rogic who I call tall twinkle feet & when his Energy Level is up tall Tom -R can pick out good passes see tall Eddy’s second goal against Motherwell recently & also Tom-R can also score important Goals as well so Tom Rogic still has a part to play as for the players I’ve not mentioned your Report Card reads “Can Do Better @ Present” So to get back too our Strikers Pecking List @ Present is 1) Edouard (Tall Eddy) 2) Leigh Griffiths (Both Leigh & Eddy Will Link Up Well) 3) Young
Tall Bayo (who has not bad movement off the Ball) 4) Young Kilmala (who needs time too settle & prove himself) I would also like Celtic to be more Direct & more Clinical in the final third of the playing field instead of side to side & pussy footing around Goals wins matches not Possessional play
As for the enigma of Young Shved I noticed you got a very rare tiny appearance on Sunday yeah the last 7 Minutes of the match however you must admit Young Shved is a Direct towards goal type of a Player who should be given more of a run out after all he has scored for the Bhoys in the past I’m referring to the good goal Young Shved scored in an away from Home CL Group Stage Pre-Qualifier & he was taken out which was a stone wall penalty on Sunday just before the final whistle which & not surprisingly BBC Scotland Sportscene left out of there so called penalty opinions analysis & BBC Scotland Sportscene are a non bias organisation aye no chance they don’t know the meaning of being neutral yeah laters Folks & Go On The Bhoys Get It In There 🙂 🙂
Jim says
I’ve forgot to mention young Ryan Christie who has gone off the Boil recently which I’m sure he would admit this fact himself however I’m sure he will rectify that matter soon Go-On-There-Young-Ryan show them how it’s done.