A performance of limitless energy saw The Rangers harry and press Celtic into meek submission. 1-0 flattered the Champions who could not get into their passing rhythm.
For astute tactical analysis I recommend you watch the videos in this thread from Ally Bain (@allybain).
Celtic Lack Plan B
This match was a triumph of how to play without the ball by the home side. Celtic were utterly disrupted from their normal passing game. From the very start of the match Halliday took longer over every throw and restart than Bernhard Langer over a Major winning putt. This served the dual purpose of stopping Celtic putting pace into their game whilst allowing the homes side a breather from the relentless pressing.
Celtic average 551 passes per 90m and managed 314 here but only 271 from open play. Much as Celtic had disrupted RB Leipzig in the recent 2-1 Europa League match, so The Rangers turned the match into a shapeless mess. There were 108 challenges in the game, only 5 less than in the RB Leipzig clash. Despite Celtic winning 59% of all duels, they only retained possession from 39% of them. The Rangers were quick to close down and quicker to the second balls.
As a team, Celtic normally have over 700 possession actions in any game. They were restricted to 469 here and very few of them in dangerous areas. The Hoops recorded only 1 shot on target, the same as in losing 0-1 to Kilmarnock last season. They managed only 1 pass into the Danger Zone all match.
Celtic’s passing game was almost totally broken down. They managed just 35 pack passes – forward passes that take out opponents. If Celtic don’t hit 50 they generally don’t do well and 35 equals the lowest of the season in losing 1-2 at Kilmarnock. From those pack passes only 7 home side defenders were taken out the game in 90 minutes – again the same as Kilmarnock away.
Pressing effectiveness can be measured by Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA). Celtic achieved only 4.09 passes per defensive action, the lowest against domestic opposition. They average 7.75.
The lack of an option to break the press with an early direct pass severely restricted the Hoops. Last season Celtic played a direct game against Heart of Midlothian away to combat both their high press and the long grass at Tynecastle. That side had both Dembele and Edouard starting. Dembele received 10 forward passes for an Receive Impect score of 82 in that match. Celtic were able to play longer and retain possession in a 3-1 victory.
The slight figure of Johnston had a thankless task. He completed 10 passes and gave it away only 3 times also managing to win 3 challenges. But it is a stretch to expect the young winger to play the same role as a Dembele or Morelos.
With no direct option Celtic continued to try and play out with little success. The second half switch to a diamond with Sinclair and Edouard up top and Forrest in behind did not change the inability to break the initial lines of The Rangers press.
The Rangers Efficiency
The home side’s own possession was generally unremarkable. Restricted to 44% possession, they completed only 203 passes.
However, unlike the Hoops the home side’s possession was often in attacking areas. The high press and relentless energy of the opponents contribute to a season high 7 defensive errors by Cetic. The Rangers forced Celtic to turnover possession 15 times in their own defensive third. Boyata alone had given away possession in his own third 5 times in the opening 15 minutes.
The Light Blues scored a Scottish best 203 Total Impect. To bring that to life, they were able to complete forward passes and take Celtic players out the game effectively. 20 of 32 successful pack passes came from their defenders. Unlike Celtic and Johnston, The Rangers had in Morelos a player able to take in, control and work with direct longer passes. Morelos received 11 forward passes for a Receive Impect score of 83 (see above for Dembele’s similar numbers last season vs Heart of Midlothian).
Once the home side secured possession in the final third they were very effective. 8 shots on target is the most by any team against Celtic since Paris Saint Germain. 14 shots were taken inside the box, a season high. The Rangers had possession in the Celtic box 24 times – the most by any Scottish team this season.
This meant Expected Goals (xG) of 2.023, bettered only by Aberdeen last week. Fortunately, Gordon was in great form and his 6 saves are the most by a Celtic ‘keeper this season.
The fractured and frantic nature of the game The Rangers imposed on Celtic is further highlighted by the fact the home side’s Expected Assists (xA) was only 1.180. Many of their chances came from turnovers and second balls after challenges rather than creating chances from passing moves.
Summary
Without considering the midfield make up of the Celtic team (for another article), the away side displayed little ability to change the game plan The Rangers imposed upon them. Unable to play a more direct game, Celtic also failed to break the initial press with any regularity. In the second half Boyata completed 12 passes and gave away 7, as the most glaring example.
The home side were then highly effective in creating chances from the chaotic match their energy and pressing spawned. Fortunately for Celtic their finishing and Gordon’s saves kept the score down.
Appalling squad management and midfield imbalance have once again cost Celtic dear in what is now becoming a trend in tricky away games.
Duncan says
Happy New Year bud good to see you hard at work so early in the Year.
The game at Ibrox was a tactical disaster for Brendan Rodgers an avoidable one at that.
To beat the high press you need to be able to go long or short and make it stick or at least have that option.
You need someone to drop from Midfield and create a platform to move it out and launch counters.
This in turn keeps the opposition guessing as to whether you will go long ,short or ATTEMPT to play it out from the back.
Taking Callum McGregor out of midfield and moving him to Left Back was not only mind bogglingly stupid but am extreme tactical fuck up by Brendan.
To then subsequently drop Ntcham and Brown back in as a midfield pairing is beyond belief given how badly this has panned out some if not all of the times he has opted to do this this Season.
Those two as a pairing should never be seen at Celtic again it doesn’t work.
Then to stick an inexperienced 19 year old WINGER up front and expect him to hold the ball up is beyond comprehension?
If all of these factors weren’t that bad he proceeded to leave the no2 left back out the squad and leave the no 1 Left Back on the bench with the no 3 left back sat beside him!
Sitting beside them the £9m STRIKER Brendan brought in to replace Dembele!
Slippy G did not have to come into this game a tactical genius all he had to do was go over what both Neil Lennon and Steve Clarke have done to cause us problems previously then replicate it.
Brendan of course in doing all of the above just made it all that bit easier for him.
Result?
Worst performance this Season.
Brendan needs to use the down time to reset and have a word with himself.
HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Fair comment Duncan, I’m afraid to say. HNY to you and yours.
OldRossCo says
I agree about taking McGregor out of the midfield was a disaster and that Brown and N’tcham can’t play together, but the Aberdeen final was tough to watch as well. McGregor did come back for the ball, but was isolated with Rogic and Christie too far forward. I thought that Rodgers might play Brown or N’tcham for the position of the midfield, but the two together are too slow, don’t keep the ball under pressure and break down more attacks than the opposition. Watching Christie keep the ball in the midfield under pressure and picking a pass puts those two to shame. Christie and McGregor have their faults, but they have to be first pick. If they’re playing they will learn. Same with Ralston, but I’d probably still sign a RB for Europe.
Martin Farrell says
We need to spend some big money we paying a wage to players won’t play the shirt get out of Lone business start spending big money for big players BR you need to wise up we need big names right now no more f*ing about it cost the supporters to much to see we seen Saturday remember Rangers are broke and they still adding on come BR think of supporters you have to spend money to get money
alan cameron says
I love the analyses you provide – always fascinating, always revealing. Thanks for providing them.
But regarding this game, surely the fact of us losing two key players to injury relatively early on, which severely restricted BR’s options to change our set-up for the second half, comes into play?
Happy New Year!
SFTB says
Excellent and honest article which gives due credit to the effectiveness of the Sevco players’ use of energy.
They had many players on form and those that weren’t did not shirk on effort. We had McGregor and Gordon playing to standard while the rest found it difficult to impose themselves on the game.
I am reluctant to say that any player is finished but there are interesting times ahead where we will have to concoct a functional squad for the games that remain.
We cannot rely on going to the well with Tierney, McGregor, Forrest and Christie all the way to May. We will continue to need to rotate and players will need to step up.
mojomogoz says
Great analysis and from Ally Bain too.
Celtic and Rodgers have a problem that extends beyond tactics and shape…confidence. Its been obvious this and last season that it can be a struggle. Only Tierney and McGregor have the teflon confidence package aligned with ability in the team. Tierney just has it…McGregor has taken a long time to arrive at this point.
I actually think that Lustig has the mentality but lacks the ability (physical and technical) to go with it (part age/ware). Brown’s a tough case but I think that against the toughest opposition he tends to take a step back to safety and not have the confidence to step forward enough (hidden by his endeavour for the cause). The prior two seasons he had shown more confidence stepping forward IMO but this season seems to have regressed and I do wonder whether its just his body failing a bit.
The above is the key reason not signing McGinn was a mistake…the intangible of mentality…he has the confidence and ability package. He’s not the greatest but he’s always willing to take the challenge on. Dembele is missed partly as he too had that teflon mix (even if he was sometimes huffing).
I thought Benkovic was the full package and he probably will be but is still young and inexperienced and perhaps got freaked out by his first Ibrox game. Eduoard is close to the package IMO…he’s just not a lone striker naturally. Christie may have the ability.
Sinclair is the worst in that he is totally reliant for others for confidence. Rogic is an 80% er – most of the time but at moments can fall really short and go missing (Salzburg great example of that).
Forrest has improved a lot in the confidence stakes and is no longer a total passenger in that regard like Sinclair.
This transfer window Celtic should encourage Brown to go to Aus. I think Nthcham has what it takes and the best way forward with him is to give him the responsibility of filling Brown’s role.
I think Boyata is under appreciated in many ways but I would let him go this transfer window too (if another CB can be brought in and Benkovic stays). I think he creates more problems strategically than he solves. He is a low confidence guy and you cant build core defensive relationships around that. Sadly, Hendry has lost whatever confidence he might once had…and that is partly down to the dysfunctional heart of defence for Celtic. A character like Boyata cannot bring on a character like Hendry or other young guys. A lot of risk needs to be taken to sort out centre of defence.
The key recruited though is some sports psychologists. The team AND Brendan need some confidence building.
HH
Billy Bhoy says
This analysis confirms my suspicion that BR deliberately crashed the bus at Ibrox.
Firstly, I believe KT was fit and available to start. Even if he hadn’t been we had Hayes, who had done well at Pittodrie, available. To go with CalMac when we had Rogic unavailable was farcical.
To add to that BR chose young Johnston to play up front instead of OE who had run a mock at Pittodrie.
So, in summary, sorry I am not buying into the narrative that the “better team won”. That only applies when there are two teams on the park. Celtic simply didn’t take the field on Saturday – for reasons best know to the manager.
I hope the tactic pays dividends now that the transfer window is open.
Rabin says
Excellent analysis. The disruptive nature of Sevco’s play was ably assisted by the men in black, of course.
What shocked me was Rodgers’ utter cowardice on the sideline whilst his players were being kicked across the park. Not a peep out of him. I’m sorry, but he let Celtic down badly on Saturday. His passive to the point of timid approach is clearly rubbing off the players, not one of whom came to their colleagues’ aid or got in the ref’s face as he ignored foul after foul by Sevco. Why would our players risk a 50/50 when the manager is shirking the fight too?
Rodgers needs to man up and confront the sevco thugs. Would MON have sat like a mouse in silence whilst a toerag like Morelos assaulted his squad? Damn sure he wouldn’t! MON had proper passion and not afraid to show it.
Ian Old Kilpatrick says
It has happened a few times that the opposition play on mistakes and a compliant referee. Celtic started on the back foot and needed everyone to respond. The analysis from Alistair Bain pointed out that Ntcham, Forest and Sinclair were not able to help the defence out. Rangers hungry approach, a noisy crowd and an in form Ryan Kent kept Celtic from settling but Celtic have had similar problems at Ibrox (and Tynecastle) but have managed to overcome them. The organisation and the energy wasn’t there.
The thing I have been thinking about is, can Celtic become as good as RB Salzburg?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
As good as Salzburg? I suspect that while their wages may not be high they have access to the Leipzig scouting arrangements and have been able to source top young talent. All their transfer fees are undisclosed. Players like Wolf (19 – 77 games) and Sammesekou (22 – 115 games) are exceptional for their age. We should aim to source talent like that but suspect they have more powerful means behind them.
Ian Old Kilpatrick says
Yes, it is a big stretch to get to that standard. Thanks for the information. Happy New Year.
Ian
Peter Conlon says
Very good work helps to understand why we were beaten so soundly, what did you think of browns display.? My problem was his position throughout the match always dropping deep into his own back line on many occasions while Nitcham was all over the shop trying to get into the match again Rogers moved him around as he did with Forrest , never at any time during the match did we revert to a solid man for man block to stem the flow from rangers to our goal as an ex footballer for the life of me what was Rogers and his staff doing during that match out numbered all over the pitch I thought our tactical approach really poor and we had a few good chances to score mostly net bound shots being blocked by rangers rear guard a very poor poor performance all round .