Looking at attacking performance indicators so far this season.
The graph below plots Expected Goals (quality of shot chances) and Expected Assists (quality of chances created). Together this is Expected Scoring Contribution but compared we can see the squad attacking potential productivity.
All values are per 90m. I have included all players who have played 100 minutes before the International break.
First point to note is the extreme middle right. Dembele was averaging 0.74 xG per 90m. No on is close to this with the shot hungry Johnston promisingly on 0.5. Last season all 3 strikers averaged over 0.6 xG per 90m. It is a slight worry early in the season albeit these samples are small.
Griffiths is prominent in the xA values which is not surprising given he takes set pieces. 12 of the 21 chances Griffiths has created this season have been from set pieces. Hayes potential is shown with the highest xA value although he has only created 4 chances in his limited 135 minutes.
McGregor continues to impress as the most creative midfielder. A concern is the low value of chances Rogic creates per 90m – only 0.12.
Early days but someone is gong to have to fill the void to Dembele’s numbers.
I’ll refresh over the season.
Rob O'Keeffe says
Dembele? How many games did he decide not to play in last year? Griffiths? How many times did BR not decide to play him for 90 mins? McGregor and Rogic are magic but are let down by the tippy tappy brigade at the back,not shifting the ball quick enough.Speaking of corners,Celtic must have the worst conversion rate in Europe!
Charlie Saiz says
This has been an issue since as far back as the Majstorovic days under Lenny.
Only Boyata and Dennayer breaking the trend in recent years.
All to do with the delivery Rob yet Brendan continues to leave Griffiths (he best delivery at the Club by some margin ) the bench then don’t expect it to change any time soon.
Uralius says
Question: Could these numbers be used to calculate striker partnerships? Looking at these numbers and ONLY these numbers we should be playing Griff, Mikey, Rogic and Sinclair.
Charlie Saiz says
Both Sinclair and Forrest outscored the 3 main Strikers last Season (18 and 17 goals) I think when fit and at it both should start with Griffiths and either Rogic or McGregor in the 10 slot.
Édouard should be playing second fiddle to the Clubs top scorer in 10 years imo.
He’s 20 and still learning his trade Griffiths is 28 and as Brendan highlighted pre StMirren “entering his prime years”.
Said this last Season when he dropped Griffiths out the picture his will have a negative effect when Dembele leaves?
Hey presto look what has transpired… No Dembele a rusty Griffiths and a young striker under pressure to produce every game he plays.
ALL AVOIDABLE by better management of the squad.
Uralius says
Charlie Saiz, I Cannae get into Etims is it doon?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I couldn’t agree more on your point on squad miss management.
Johnny says
The problem is paying a record fee for a striker then not playing him. Perhaps Brendan might be wary of touchy Frenchmen spitting the dummy out if they are left on the bench.
Johnny says
5 league games played and a goal difference of +3 says it all. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of goals conceded , timings , areas of the park they come from.