The new season is underway in the unique environment of Scottish football.
With enlarged Champions’ League group stage football on offer for the SPFL winners, the pressure on Scotland’s parttime referees has never been greater.
Thankfully we have the calm, measured expert opinions of the Yorkshire Whistler to guide us through the big contentious issues. Indeed, he will likely enjoy the distraction of the Scottish football circus to take his mind of what will likely be a very difficult season for his beloved Sheffield Wednesday. The Blades are in the Premier League as well, so not much joy to be found for him in this season!
We will continue to focus on the likely “top two” but given early season form, if another challenger emerges then we will happily cover their games too.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
Before we start the following from the Yorkshire Whistler:
“So, another season begins and after the opening weekend’s SPL action, there are already some key match incidents worthy are review.
But before we get to the analysis, I just wanted to share some updated guidance around a technical focus area that we can expect to see being implemented at all levels of the game:
Time Delays – The situation is getting worse in terms of time-wasting practices and there is now a big push from the top down to increase playing time on match day. Unfortunately, time delay tactics have become an acceptable part of the game. I’m sure we’ll agree its unsporting, unfair and most situations conscious & deliberate.
Referees are now being requested to be less lenient in these situations to curb further frustration or misconduct arising from these tactics. Football now wants stronger action taken.
As result we can expect to see significantly longer periods of stoppage time played and more cautions given for delaying the restart of play/unsporting behaviour.”
05/08/23 Celtic vs Ross County
Incident 1
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 14th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Murray goes down in box after mistake by Hart |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | (5) Celtic 4-2 Ross County | Bhoys Score Four In Season Opener | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:04 |
Incident 2
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 16th |
Incident | Taylor goes down under the challenge from Sims |
Outcome | Penalty to Celtic |
Evidence | (5) Celtic 4-2 Ross County | Bhoys Score Four In Season Opener | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:25 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Taylor goes down under the challenge from Sims
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic Just inside the box, Taylor reacts to the ball just before Simms makes a challenge. Unfortunately, the defender mis times the challenge, gets nothing of the ball and gets his man. Clear cut penalty. VERDICT: CORRECT decision |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
05/08/23 Kilmarnock vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | Willie Collum |
Game Minute | 53rd |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Goldson goes down in the box following a corner |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 05/08/2023
At 40:38 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Goldson goes down in the box following a corner
Initial on field decision: No decision From a Rangers corner, there is the usual jostling & grappling for position and as the cross comes in, the Kilmarnock defender appears to have both his hands on the waist of Goldson. I appreciate this kind of physical contest happens multiple times at set plays and I am of the belief it the grappling is mutual, the approach of ‘they’re both at it, get on with it’ can be applied. However, in this incident, Goldson gets in front of his man, he is not grabbing the defender and is clearly impeded by the drag back from the defender. I believe if the referee clearly sees this incident, he would have awarded a penalty kick. I am surprised this was not recommended for an on-field VAR review. VERDICT: INCORRECT decision. Penalty kick expected outcome. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
TRFC -0.63 xPts |
A bonus from a quite comical incident in Dundee!
05/08/23 Dundee vs Motherwell
Incident 1
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | ? |
Score At Time | ? |
Incident | Motherwell defender seems to handle the ball whilst it is in the goalkeepers hands after reclaim |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | https://twitter.com/FundilyMundelly/status/1688560745779261442?s=20 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Motherwell defender seems to handle the ball whilst it is in the goalkeepers hands after reclaim
Initial on field decision: Play on Unusual incident here whereby the Motherwell defender appears to pat the ball whilst it is in the hands of his goalkeeper and as such the question is raised; Should a penalty kick have been awarded for a handball offence against the defender? Worth noting that the only footage presented for review is a slow option clip. As I have stated multiple times, slow motion can offer distort to extent the reality of what may have transpired in ‘real time’. I see the defender not looking directly at the ball, but rather talking to the keeper and appearing to say ‘calm it down/slow down the release of the ball’ and him making the associated hand gesture moving hands downwards to his waist. I suspect what we see is accidental contact and in no way is the player gaining any kind of advantage from this passage of play. Law 12 Fouls & Misconduct does state around handball that ‘Not every touch of a player’s hand/arm with the ball is an offence. Sometimes referees & fans talk about the ‘spirit of the laws’ and what football expects in this situation. For me, even if I am looking straight at this incident in real time, I would not be awarding a handball offence. Verdict: CORRECT decision |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Firstly, I should extend congratulations to Nick Walsh for getting the big calls right at Celtic Park.
A remarkable start to the season though with frequent penalty recipients The Rangers potentially being denied one in defeat at Kilmarnock. Big Conor Goldson just can’t catch a ball, errr, I mean break.
The Rangers have 0.63 less points than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
Celtic are joint top and lead The Rangers by three points after one match.
Martin says
An appropriate title. Though I would expect “normal” service to resume henceforth. I predict TRIFC will again lead the penalty table, though will concede a whole penalty during this campaign. Not at ibrox, of course.
Damian says
Given that I think style of play is overwhelmingly the strongest factor in all of this, I genuinely think that the penalty deficit will be far closer this season – if not in fact in Celtic’s favour, as it was in Rodgers’ first two seasons (and as it was for an extended period at the beginning of the century). The more patient possession-based style we will likely have vs Rangers losing an incredibly skilful penalty-getter (whose skills could have been better-concentrated IMO) etc.
We’ll see.
Think it’s worth noting at this stage that the generalities used to calculate the impact on points here just seems off – even in this case when it’s to Sevco’s detriment. The chances of them not taking at least one point had that penalty been given seem minuscule.
On balance, I seem to remember them being given close to +1 points last season for a questionable sending off for Livingston, at a stage in a game where TRFC were almost definitely going to win anyway.
But, in any case, I expect it will be much tighter this season.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hi – it’s a model therefore inherently imperfect and used as a guide
Hence the need to more data and why i summarised 78 matches worth
The livingston game was actually 0-1 with TRFC going nowhere until VAR bizarrely overturned a refs decision not to issue a second YC – with 9 mins left TRFC got a leveller
Damian says
Would need to check back. I was thinking of the Livingston game in February or thereabouts, when Livingston had a man sent off when Rangers were 1-0 up, with the final score ending up 3-0. I’d thought the YW’s comments on the sending off in that game had resulted in a relatively big xPts bump.
Damian says
Here
https://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/honest-mistakes-to-week-28/
For the second yellow too (impossible for the YW to comment on given that he isn’t looking at cumulative fouls etc).
In any case, I understand the model. I don’t think it’s credible when used in this way.
I suspect it will be much closer because of Rodgers’ style of play and – per the YW – because VAR has clearly improved the overall picture since the WC break.
Whether refs will continue to book Rangers players far more than Celtic players, remains to be seen. Again, I’d imagine style of play will be the biggest factor. I’d expect TRFC players to be booked even more this season, based on the early evidence.
Damian says
Incidentally, Celtic with more bookings than Rangers so far this season (which is unusual – last season and almost every season since Sevco has been in the top flight, Scottish refs book Rangers players FAR more often than Celtic players). But, Rangers have three red cards; just one for Celtic, so Celtic still leads the fair play table by the metric used here:
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/scottish-premiership/fairnesstabelle/wettbewerb/SC1
Damian says
Not sure if anyone gets alerts for old chats any more, but well into the season now and it’s:
Rangers – 9 penalties for, 1 against.
Celtic – 12 penalties for, 0 against.
We’ve played one game more in the league.
Debate about the timing would be daft too given that Celtic were awarded two penalties apiece against Motherwell and Hibernian (this week) at decisive/difference-making moments.
The Cha says
The World Turned Upside Down!
Celtic top of the Penalty League and “our friends” denied a stonewaller.
Still, as Martin says, plenty of time for a ‘revert to mean’ from our independent arbiters.
I’m intrigued by the YW’s intrepretation of the Dundee Well non-penalty incident, which seems to be a mixture of “I’m not sure he touched the ball” and “even, if he did, it was accidental”.
The latter seems quite a get-out for players losing concentration and not realising what they’re doing.
It seems strange that the rules or intrepretation reward rather than punish this poor play due to lack of focus.
I recall an incident at St Johnstone where Duberry handled the ball “accidentally” 2 or 3 times, which benefitted his team but luckily for him the officials had an even more generous interpretation of the rules than YW!