Down to me but finally here are the big calls from the matches involving the likely top two at the end of the season from week five.
Of course, that may not be the case. Although there has never been any suggestion or indeed evidence of cultural predilection within Scottish football governance towards either St Mirren or Motherwell. Nevertheless, if their fine form continues maybe their matches will be part of this analysis!
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
SPFL Game Week Five
16/09/23 Celtic vs Dundee
Incident 1
Referee | Grant Irvine |
Game Minute | 50th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Turnbull goes down on the edge of the box |
Outcome | Free kick to Celtic overturned by VAR to Penalty to Celtic |
Evidence | (14) Celtic 3-0 Dundee | Furuhashi Heads Home To Help Celtic Go Top | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:30 |
Incident 2
Referee | Grant Irvine |
Game Minute | 62nd |
Score At Time | 1-0 |
Incident | Kyogo scores for Celtic |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | (14) Celtic 3-0 Dundee | Furuhashi Heads Home To Help Celtic Go Top | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 3:33 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Kyogo scores for Celtic
Initial on field decision: Goal to Celtic Kyogo appears to time his run and gets a clear header on goal which he duly dispatches. There is a question of a foul in the build-up on a Dundee midfielder, which for me is not a foul. Also, the Dundee back line are asking for a possible offside Kyogo when the pass is played forward to him. On review, he times his run perfectly and is played onside by the left central defender’s back foot. Verdict: CORRECT decision to award the goal |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
16/09/23 St Johnstone vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 49th |
Score At Time | 0-1 |
Incident | Kane goes down in the box under challenge from Butland |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 16/09/2023
At 1:00:03 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Kane goes down in box under challenge from Butland
Initial on field decision: No foul given Kane looks to pounce on a back pass to Butland and they both challenge for the ball. This challenge sees Kane fall to the floor looking for a penalty decision. In real time I felt this was not a penalty and Kane appears to be go ground far too easily. On review you can see Butland clearly plays the ball first and Kane simply throws himself to the floor after he feels secondary contact from Butland Verdict: CORRECT decision to not award the penalty |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game Minute | 60th |
Score At Time | 0-1 |
Incident | Kane goes down in the box under challenge from Lawrence |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 16/09/2023
At 1:01:35 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Kane goes down in box under challenge from Lawrence
Initial on field decision: No foul given Lawrence and Kane tussle from a St Johnstone corner. Kane feels contact on his shoulder from the Rangers defender and again goes to ground quite easily. My opinion is that the level of contact seen here is acceptable and part of the natural body contact between opposing players competing for the same space. There is not enough to be deemed a clear pull or impediment and I’m satisfied with non-penalty decision. Verdict: CORRECT decision to not award the penalty |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Another week where the big calls appear to have been correct. I wonder what (if anything) has changed?
Maybe form is temporary?
We shall see.
No major changes to the SPFL title race in terms of week four impacts on expected points.
The Rangers have 0.63 less points than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes.
Celtic lead by four points after five matches.
John Buchanan says
Looking forward to whistlers verdict on Rangers v Motherwell game.
Damian says
Agree with your topic paragraph, though for what it’s worth, McLean is certainly a Motherwell fan and I’m almost as certain Collum is. Robertson, though a Celtic fan, so far as I’m aware, was certainly a St Mirren youth player, Admittedly, I’m not sure whether any of this constitutes cultural predilection.
I’m not sure anything has changed. Since the World Cup break last season (a reasonable settling in period following the rushed implementation of VAR a few weeks before), according to the YW, most of the calls have been correct or duly corrected.
Dellbhoy says
Would love you do an article on the statistical analysis of the probability of 3 things over the last 4 yrs. in the spfl
1. Rangers barely being awarded a penalty against them.
2. Rangers barely having a player sent off
3. Rangers getting home ties in cup competitions
Thx. Love the work you do and the insights on the website and pods.
Keep up the great work
RefMartin says
The VAR calls have on the whole been fine since the World Cup, as Damian says. There’s still the part of me that wonders about non VARable calls in our games (and possibly in Sevco games too, I don’t watch enough). Lots of niggly non fouls that break up play, stop our turnover chances or get the opposition free kicks out of their danger area where they might otherwise lose possession and face yet another goal onslaught.
These are very difficult t collect data for and make up the bulk of fouls in most games. The impression I get is of a higher threshold of contact for a foul against us than for us, but it’s a rather nebulous feeling rather than hard facts. The reasons for this could be wildly different too, with something innocuous like seeing the pace of the play increasing and the risk of reckless/dangerous challenges creeping up too. Give a few softer free kicks, slow things down and calm the minds- may reduce the risk of a card or serious injury.
The culture in Scotland is different too, very 1980s mindset about football and faster ball playing teams will always clash with refereeing style.
And yet…if I were trying to stifle a fluid attacking team, going for these simple free kicks where VAR doesn’t get involved and goal risk is low (so pundits never talk about it and referee observers don’t really think on it too much) would be the best approach. Just some thoughts.