Someone Due A Doing?

To assess whether players have improved year on year, I compare their Expected Scoring Contributions (xSC) (Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA)) over the last two seasons.

xSC

Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is the aggregation of xG and xA.

Here is the change in the is combined metric over the last two seasons for the main creative and attacking players with over 900 minutes who were here in both seasons.

The biggest surprise to some will be Ntcham. Given his season ended in injury lay off then patchy form, the ending perception of his total season was one of disappointment.

But he was a leading player in not getting what he perhaps deserved. His xA suggests he should have ended with 5.592 assists. He was credited with 1. Ntcham’s xNPG (non-penalty goals) was 7.859 but he scored 5.

So, by both assists and goals he perhaps is due an uplift in fortune.

Less surprising is that both Edouard and Forrest saw their expected attacking output increase by healthy 10% and 7% margins respectively. Both had productive seasons and their xSC numbers support that.

McGregor’s numbers are deflated mainly due to playing a deeper role and not being in such advanced attacking positions.

Griffiths we know has had injury and illness problems.

Sinclair’s numbers reflect a change in team role as show in The Curious Case of Scott Sinclair.

And finally, the sad case of Rogic. I cannot rationalise that one away and refer you to Rogic and the Slopes of Doom which is as happy a read as the title suggests.

xA and xG Differences

If I break down the changes to Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA) we can see where each player has improved or not.

The striking aspect of this is that apart from a small increase in Sinclair’s xG (3%) only Ntcham with a whopping 52% increase, saw their xG rise over last season.

Celtic’s total xG was 139 (121 scored) compared to last season’s 129 (126 scored). So, across the squad Celtic massively under performed xG across the season. That post-Invincible season regression to the mean sure is a bugger. Share on X

Ntcham’s massive increase in xG is difficult to explain – he actually took less shots this season (3.05 per 90m) than last (3.14). But he achieved more shots on target, less were blocked and fewer were from outside the box So, better shot selection! Which is progress. Without reward.

Only Rogic and Sinclair saw a decrease in xA, Sinclair significantly so as per the article referenced.

Ntcham’s xA was down 9% but the other returning squad members saw increases. Edouard in particular saw a 69% improvement in xA.

Rogic is the real outlier here in that he saw a significant (+20%) drop in both xG and xA.

Summary

As discussed elsewhere, Rogic fall off in expected productivity is the real worry.

Celtic are perhaps due a balancing uptick in goals to xG as they have now seen two seasons of underperformance, last season to a large degree.

Also, the rise in xA across the squad shows that perhaps the lack of an out and out scorer means that there are too many creators and not enough finishers.

The squad balance can improve.