A quick one to cover the last fixture before the international break as Celtic hosted St Johnstone whilst The Rangers forgot their trunks when visiting tropical Dundee. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. A framework for assessing red card … [continue reading]
SPFL
Honest Mistakes – There’s Been An Intervention!
Two weeks of fixtures for the high price you pay to access all the data on this site – insert a sarky emoji here. This takes us up to the Scottish Cup matches and both sides have played 29 SPFL matches. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes – Week 27
Week twenty-seven of the fixtures in the SPFL with no let-up in the array of questionable decisions. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. 24/02/24 The Rangers vs Hearts Incident 1 Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 48th Score At Time … [continue reading]
Red Card Impact
The review of the big calls affecting the top two in the SPFL by the Yorkshire Whistler throws up a 20 percent error rate currently. I then model the impact of that based on the expected points outcomes. Current Models As regards goals from open play given, not given, the model used is taken from … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes – Week 26
A topsy-turvy weekend saw new leaders as plucky newcomers The Rangers hit the top of the league. This takes us up to date with all the SPFL Premiership matches. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. 17/02/24 Celtic vs Kilmarnock … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes – To Week 25
A lull since the early January games but a solid batch of scrutiny is required this week. This takes us up to date with all the SPFL Premiership matches. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. 03/02/24 Aberdeen vs Celtic … [continue reading]
Shot Quality / ‘Keeper Workloads
Using Opta data from FotMob we can compare the quality of shots for and against, and the extent to which teams are making the goalkeepers work. Shots For The following plots the average expected goals (xG) of each shot generated and the number of saves per 90m each team is forcing the opposition goalkeeper to … [continue reading]
The “Slow & Ponderous” Fallacy
A comment I see often referring to Celtic under Brendan Rodgers can be summarised as “slow and ponderous build up”. Someone even sent me this from the Opta data driven The Analyst site to illustrate. Apologies this will look very small on a ‘phone! Follow the link above to browse more comfortably. Celtic are firmly … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes: “Phew! Back to Normal!”
The last round of matches occurred on the 2nd January before the break for winter. Celtic went to St Mirren whilst The Rangers hosted Kilmarnock. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. 02/01/24 St Mirren vs Celtic Incident 1 Referee … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes: Derby Special
New Year and another Derby at the end of 2023 in which much scrutiny falls. Thankfully we have a slightly unhappy Yorkshire Whistler who is grateful to us for taking his mind away from Sheffield Wednesday for a few moments. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined … [continue reading]