I wrote yesterday on the overall team expected goals differential and how it is trending at +2 xG per game, therefore set up well for the end of the season. What of this group of players and their own expected scoring contributions (xSC) versus last season? A reminder: scoring contribution is goals + assists. Therefore, … [continue reading]
xSC
Final 3rd Risk / Reward
When we talk about risk versus reward in the context of Celtic performance, we are looking at what you get on the upside in terms of goal threat and creativity versus the downside of lost ball possession or defensive risk. One view to illustrate maps the threat posed in the final third in terms of … [continue reading]
Top CATs and the Sub Dividend
With Alistair Johnston and Alexandro Bernabei recently passing the 900-minute threshold for meaningful data, I wanted to try out a new view of overall attacking threat. Since the World Cup break Celtic have scored 57 goals in their 18 matches as the cohesion of the team and strength of Ange Postecoglou’s system has proven consistently … [continue reading]
Jota and O’Riley Lead The Way
As we prepare for the SPFL to start up again, following the international break, here are the leaders in the Expected Scoring Contribution stakes. Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is a bit of a mouthful but simply is: Expected Goals per 90m + Expected Assists Per 90m = Expected Scoring Contribution per 90m Or xG90 + … [continue reading]
Front Three for Ibrox?
The match against Ross County was difficult to draw conclusions from given the early sending off. Also, with the score already being 3-0, the very one-sided nature of the contest allied to the fact Celtic were happy to see out the game and the Staggies content not to get totally hammered. However, the front three … [continue reading]
Who Has Striking Edge In Title Race?
As the title race reaches the final laps, let’s look at the comparative creative and goal threat across the squads to see who may have the firepower to secure the crown. I have used Opta data for this analysis and it relates only the SPFL Premier matches. The method will be to compare each position … [continue reading]
Not As Expected
I still maintain the biggest issue Celtic have faced this season is not finishing off their chances. There are undoubtedly many concerns for Postecoglou to address: A settled defence First choice left back Curing the hamstring epidemic How to operate a midfield with no natural “8”s The never-ending striker shortage Lack of aerial presence in … [continue reading]
The Johnston Conundrum
A quick piece on Michael Johnston given the furore following the St Mirren game. According to FotMob he led the team with 0.46 xG and 0.26 xA giving an Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) of 0.72. This is slightly below his average of 0.8. And, of course, this yielded 1 assist and 0 goals – leaving … [continue reading]
Someone Due A Doing?
To assess whether players have improved year on year, I compare their Expected Scoring Contributions (xSC) (Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA)) over the last two seasons. xSC Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is the aggregation of xG and xA. Here is the change in the is combined metric over the last two seasons for … [continue reading]
Can Edouard and Forrest Maintain Scoring Momentum?
With only one striker for much of the season, it is the blossoming Forrest that has led the Scoring Contribution chart so far. Scoring Contribution Scoring Contribution is simply Goals + Assists. Forrest has an incredible 16 assists to add to his 11 goals. Edouard is top scorer with 14 goals, and 8 assists. The … [continue reading]