Not only did Rogic assist 3 Forrest goals against St Johnstone, all 3 goals were “one-twos” between the players meaning Forrest racked up 3 secondary assists! It got me thinking what have been the most productive partnerships recently? Getting on well is not a prerequisite for footballers to connect effectively with each other on the … [continue reading]
Attacking
Dembele Shaped Hole
Looking at attacking performance indicators so far this season. The graph below plots Expected Goals (quality of shot chances) and Expected Assists (quality of chances created). Together this is Expected Scoring Contribution but compared we can see the squad attacking potential productivity. All values are per 90m. I have included all players who have played … [continue reading]
Celtic Due Shot Conversion Uplift
Using shot data to compare and contrast Celtic and The Rangers seasons’ so far and what it might mean for the upcoming Glasgow Derby. Firstly, shot data for The Rangers has been gleaned from the UEFA statistics and the BBC site. Celtic data is all my own. Result Success Both clubs have made it to … [continue reading]
Unlucky or Inaccurate?
How did Celtic’s attacking effectiveness compare between the 17/18 and 18/19 Champions League Qualifying campaigns? Celtic played six matches in both seasons which is a very small sample so bear that in mind. Possession Celtic appeared to have less overall control compared to last season whilst continuing to dominate possession. They averaged 81 less passes … [continue reading]
Life In The Danger Zone
Logic (and expected goals) tells us the closer you are to goal and more central, the better the chance of scoring generally. Which players are giving themselves the best chance to score? Shots In The Box Shooting from inside the box is usually better than shooting outside in terms of probability of scoring. Also, just … [continue reading]
Stats (Not) Entertainment
Celtic have scored 23 LESS goals in the SPFL after 32 matches than last season. The title is within view, but what about the entertainment? In 2016/17, the treble was founded on a dominant SPFL campaign in which 108 goals were scored. Celtic scored more goals than the quality of the chances they created would … [continue reading]
Some Goals Are Bigger Than Others
Not all goals are equal. A last minute winner is clearly more valuable than the 4th goal in the 85th minute of a 4-0 win in terms of securing victory. And we can measure that using Expected Points (xPTS). xPTS is a value assigned to each goal a player scores on the basis that every … [continue reading]
Comparing Expected Goals and Assists to 2016/17
As we know Celtic have suffered injury upon injury to the most creative players. On the other hand, the talent pool has deepened in this area with the additions of a third striker (Edouard), a new deep lying creator (Ntcham), a new winger (Hayes) and new number 10 (Musonda). Has this help mitigate the injuries? … [continue reading]
Long Range Lament
Celtic have scored 13 goals in their last 10 league games despite averaging 2 per league game overall and scoring more than 100 in the league last season. Only 6 have been scored in 5 since the New Year break. Creative Deficit and League Performance Regression? Yes. Here’s Why explained how injury to the most … [continue reading]
Odsonne to Flourish
A snapshot of shooting efficiency. This does not take in the Partick Thistle cup match – sorry James! Only players who have had more than 10 shots on target are included (14 in reality). Shot Accuracy This is simply the % of all shots the player manages to get on target. Sinclair was the most … [continue reading]