Yesterday I provided the Goals and Assists totals per player. Today I look at Expected Goals and Expected Assists. These measure the quality of the chances provided and created in terms of the probability of a goal being scored. 27 games into the season, we have a good sample of data to compare. All values are … [continue reading]
xA
Delivery Failure
There can be no denying Celtic’s current form is poor compared to previous trophy-laden seasons. I will look at a range of key performance indicators to see where it might be going wrong. I have plotted each metric per game back to the start of last season (2017/18). I did not include the 2016/17 season … [continue reading]
Dembele Shaped Hole
Looking at attacking performance indicators so far this season. The graph below plots Expected Goals (quality of shot chances) and Expected Assists (quality of chances created). Together this is Expected Scoring Contribution but compared we can see the squad attacking potential productivity. All values are per 90m. I have included all players who have played … [continue reading]
Can Celtic Over Perform Again?
The always excellent @TheGersReport wrote on the equally innovative Modern Fitba site (a great addition to the Scottish football online landscape) about which team can expect to see an increase or decrease in scoring this season. The article is here. The basic principle is that over time a players’ goals and assists totals should revert … [continue reading]
Assists and Chances
Celtic scored 126 goals from 1120 chances or a goal every 8.89 chances. Sinclair led the way with 15 assists but does that make him the most creative Celt? Who were Celtic’s creative craftsmen sculpting the Double Treble? The Glossary splits uncertainty with logic like a through ball from Rogic. Assists Not all goals have … [continue reading]
Stats (Not) Entertainment
Celtic have scored 23 LESS goals in the SPFL after 32 matches than last season. The title is within view, but what about the entertainment? In 2016/17, the treble was founded on a dominant SPFL campaign in which 108 goals were scored. Celtic scored more goals than the quality of the chances they created would … [continue reading]
Comparing Expected Goals and Assists to 2016/17
As we know Celtic have suffered injury upon injury to the most creative players. On the other hand, the talent pool has deepened in this area with the additions of a third striker (Edouard), a new deep lying creator (Ntcham), a new winger (Hayes) and new number 10 (Musonda). Has this help mitigate the injuries? … [continue reading]
Creative Deficit
I showed in League Performance Regression? Yes. Here’s Why that it was whom is injured rather than volume of injuries that are hindering SPFL performance. In The Roberts Effect I focussed on comparing team performance with and without the mercurial winger. But across the whole squad, what are we missing creatively? The Glossary can open … [continue reading]
What You Could Have Won
Some Celtic numbers to alleviate the ever-lengthening nights as we wait for international football to be over and the real stuff to start again! I look at the creative aspect of the game. For all the categories analysed, I have taken the cut off at Roberts who has played the equivalent of 4.19 90-minute matches. … [continue reading]