It seems Furuhashi is back in contention and near to full fitness if not match sharpness. In all matches, Maeda has 0.52 goals per 90m and Giakoumakis 0.85. Both are close to their respective xG and both scored in the recent win over Ross County. Based on fitness alone, I would be surprised if Furuhashi … [continue reading]
xG
Good-Bad-Lucky-Unlucky – Away With the Fairies!
Ahead of the next match, and in advance of the run in to the league, let’s take a look at home the SPFL teams are faring as regards goals for and against versus expected. Yes, it is time for the good/bad, lucky/unlucky graph! What does all that mean? Here are the definitions: Bad and Unlucky … [continue reading]
Who Has Striking Edge In Title Race?
As the title race reaches the final laps, let’s look at the comparative creative and goal threat across the squads to see who may have the firepower to secure the crown. I have used Opta data for this analysis and it relates only the SPFL Premier matches. The method will be to compare each position … [continue reading]
Ready for Take Off
Postecoglou’s start to Celtic management has the classic 3 Act narrative arc, when seen through the prism of xG. If that sentence doesn’t have you reaching for your skinny latte or Almond infused IPA, it’s the best I’ve got. Oi! – Come back! xG Differential This plots a 6-game rolling average of xG Differential (xG … [continue reading]
The Art of the Finisher
By Stephen McGeoch The discrepancy between the expected and actual goals is certainly remarkable. With 20 games played, Celtic have scored 40 non-penalty goals in the SPFL this season. That’s 2.0 goals per match against an estimate of 2.8 goals. It feels like a lot, especially since it’s from a fairly large – 438 – … [continue reading]
Not As Expected
I still maintain the biggest issue Celtic have faced this season is not finishing off their chances. There are undoubtedly many concerns for Postecoglou to address: A settled defence First choice left back Curing the hamstring epidemic How to operate a midfield with no natural “8”s The never-ending striker shortage Lack of aerial presence in … [continue reading]
Better to be Good or Lucky?
If like me you were rubbish at maths and are not a statistician, then this analysis game is often about pinching great ideas from others. My rule is always to acknowledge the pinchee! So, my thanks go to @MarcusBr22 and this tweet for introducing me to the concept of “Good / Unlucky” in terms of … [continue reading]
SPFL Attacking : First 8 Games
As we are still in the international break, a checkpoint on the SPF attacking stats to date. A Troubling Start? On a recent A Celtic State of Mind bulletin I gave a bullish response to the question of what the data showed regarding how are Celtic performing. Here is some more context to that. Although … [continue reading]
Elyounoussi’s Shooting Outlier
When considering the merits of Elyounoussi (More Mo?) a stat that stood out was his 64% On Target Shot Conversion rate – very high. What can we tell about shot selection and accuracy? I have mapped Shot Accuracy (simply the % of all shots from that player that are on target) with xG per Shot. … [continue reading]
Edouard and the “Finishing” Myth
One of the many insights xG gives us is that great goal scorers are defined by two key attributes. They take a lot of shots from good positions. The lack of deviation over time from xG also shows us that the concept of “finishing” is a bit of a myth. Cristiano Ronaldo is the most … [continue reading]